Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
938 FXUS61 KBUF 011058 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 658 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above average temperatures today as a warm front brings scattered light showers through early to mid afternoon, before a cold front generates a round of more substantial rain showers later tonight through the first half of Friday. 2) Below normal temperatures with frost potential early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above average temperatures today as a warm front brings scattered light showers through early to mid afternoon, before a cold front generates a round of more substantial rain showers later tonight through the first half of Friday. Nose of 30-40 knot LLJ impinging on deeper moisture is producing scattered light showers across western NY to start the morning ahead of a warm front nearing the area. Warm front will progress northeast through western NY this morning, before moving through the North Country this afternoon. Expect main area of light showers to finish crossing western NY this morning, then move through the North Country from mid morning through early to mid afternoon, with mainly dry weather areawide by later this afternoon as the main axis of moisture shifts north of the region. Strong WAA pattern/cloud cover will limit mixing potential of the stronger winds off the deck, however at least partial mixing along with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front will elevate southwesterly flow. This will be especially true northeast of the Lakes, where winds could gust up to 30 mph, especially across the Niagara Frontier. A sharper trough will then dig across the upper Great Lakes forcing the aforementioned cold front southeast through western and northcentral NY later tonight into Friday morning. While PWAT values will be nearing the 100th percentile for this time of year, along with a stout 35-45 knot LLJ, showers will be mainly anafrontal and thus not be able to take full advantage of the more plentiful moisture and much stronger forcing ahead of the front. Thus, while there will be a period of beneficial showers, the heavy rainfall/flooding threat will be near zero. The main window for more persistent showers will be late tonight through midday/early afternoon Friday just behind the cold front, with a general one- third to two-thirds of an inch of rainfall expected across western and northcentral NY. A few widely scattered light showers may linger in the wake of the cold front Friday afternoon, otherwise dry and seasonable weather is on tap for the upcoming weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temperatures with frost potential early next week. A strong cold front with cross the area Sunday night, ushering in the coolest airmass we`ve seen since last spring. 850mb temperatures will plunge to near 0C or even a below during the first part of next week, with daytime highs not getting out of the 50s for much of the region, and possibly only upper 40s for highs across the Tug Hill and western Dacks by Tuesday. Strong upper level trough axis will cross the area Monday, possibly producing a few showers, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. The main impact will be frost potential Monday night, and possibly again Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Nose of 30-40 knot LLJ impinging on deeper moisture is producing scattered light showers across western NY to start the morning ahead of a warm front nearing the area. Warm front will progress northeast through western NY this morning, before moving through the North Country this afternoon. Main area of light showers will finish crossing western NY this morning, then move through the North Country from mid morning through early to mid afternoon. Expect mainly low-VFR CIGS across western and northcentral NY this morning, with intermittent periods of MVFR possible in the light showers. Expect improvement to mainly VFR flight conditions from southwest to northeast later this morning through mid afternoon. Southwesterly flow will also ramp up with winds gusting 15-25 knots from mid morning on, with the highest gusts downwind of the Lakes (KBUF/KIAG/KART). Mainly VFR conditions then expected later this afternoon through at least mid evening, before clouds begin to thicken and lower with rain chances increasing toward the late evening/early overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the area later tonight through Friday morning, bringing a period of IFR/LIFR flight conditions and light to moderate rain showers to all of western and northcentral NY. A period of LLWS will also be possible from around 00Z-07Z this evening into the early overnight as a 40-50 knot LLJ moves across the area. Outlook... Friday...LIFR/IFR/MVFR with rain showers through midday/early afternoon. Improving flight conditions from west to east through the second half of the day. Friday night through Sunday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely. Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and northcentral NY. Sunday night through Monday. Periodic rain showers with MVFR or worse possible. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient will continue to slowly tighten today well ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect moderate SSWerly breezes on both Lakes today, with perhaps a brief period of fresh SSWerly flow bringing near-SCA conditons on the northeast ends of both Lakes, however the mainly offshore wind component will keep the higher waves confined to the open lakes. Winds veer SW and W tonight with wind speeds 10-15 knots through Friday morning, before veering NWerly and increasing, bringing a period of low-end SCA conditions from the Niagara River to near the Saint Lawrence River later Friday afternoon through a portion of Friday night. High pressure will bring a return to lighter winds and lower wave action on the Lakes this weekend, before a strong cold front plows across the lower Great Lakes Sunday night, with freshening NWerlies likely bringing a round of solid small craft conditions later Sunday night into Monday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM