069
FXUS61 KBUF 112334
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
734 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Included patchy fog tonight across the western Southern Tier,
especially for Chautauqua County.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic chances for showers and storms will continue, mainly for
the western Southern Tier through tonight and expanding to western
and north-central NY for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Periodic chances for showers and storms will
continue, mainly for the western Southern Tier through tonight
and expanding to western and north-central NY for Wednesday
afternoon.

Generally northwest flow across much of the Great Lakes region with
multiple shortwaves passing under the broad scale troughing pattern
centered over the Hudson Bay. These shortwaves moving across the
Midwest have brought continuous rounds of thunderstorms across
IL/IN/OH, while a cold front looks to settle near the NY/PA border
this afternoon with widely scattered showers across the Southern
Tier. This placement will keep the majority of western and north-
central NY dry through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

The next approaching shortwave will pass through the lower Great
Lakes Wednesday afternoon bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Instability will be fairly marginal
hovering around 500-750 J/kg per the latest HREF/REFS for the
western Southern Tier extending up to the Niagara Frontier. However,
enough for a few strong thunderstorms to develop with 700mb flow
increasing to 30-35 kt in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall, lightning,
and gusty winds would be the main hazards with these storms.
Instability will be much less farther east towards the north
country, but better synoptic lift ahead of the jet max may aid
in additional shower and storm development in the vicinity of
the Tug Hill north into the St. Lawrence Valley through the
early evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS generally VFR flight conditions with a frontal
boundary and associated convection now just to the south of the
state border.

Like last night, a still humid airmass will likely bring a period of
IFR flight conditions late this evening and through the night for
KJHW. Some patches of fog are also possible near KART.

A shortwave trough will bring this frontal boundary to our south
back northward tomorrow, while also serving as a trigger for a few
showers and thunderstorms especially through the afternoon and
evening hours. This activity will diminish through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime instability and with the earlier passage of
the shortwave trough.

Behind the shortwave another period of IFR flight conditions will be
possible for the western Southern Tier tomorrow night.

Outlook...

Thursday...Local IFR in valley fog across the Southern Tier early,
otherwise mainly VFR with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will continue to slide south stalling across central
Lake Erie extending eastward along the NY/PA border. Showers and
thunderstorms will move mainly along and south of the boundary this
afternoon and evening. Generally weak gradients are expected
Wednesday into Thursday with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms that could locally enhance flow and choppy waters for
brief periods of time. High pressure will build into the lower Great
Lakes Friday afternoon into the first half of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Brothers