Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
947 FXUS61 KBUF 290608 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 208 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low clouds and fog lingering into this morning. 2) Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower bearing cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Low clouds and fog lingering into this morning. Coastal low will continue to weaken and exit east today. Lingering low level moisture will maintain low stratus and areas of fog this morning. The lowest visibilities are expected across the hilltops, with an outside chance for drizzle patches. Drier air pushing southward will eroding the low clouds and fog from north to south today, with clouds across the inland Southern Tier fading last by this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower bearing cold front. Developing southerly flow by midweek will send a warm autumn airmass into our region. Ridging aloft and 850 mb temperatures rising into the upper teens C will aid in surface temperatures warming some 10 degrees above normal, with Thursday the likely the warmest day. A few sites, especially in the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes, will make a run at 80F on Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Abundant low level moisture will bring lowering flight conditions, and formation of fog early this morning. Expect IFR or lower flight conditions for the Southern Tier (KJHW) while low clouds are also likely for the North Country (KART) even the lower elevations of the lake plain may have patches of fog or low ceiling heights, though MVFR flight conditions are likely to be the rule. Surface high pressure to our west will near the TAF region Tuesday, with light wind flow continuing. This will make for a slow improvement to the flight conditions, with most areas returning to MVFR by 12-14Z and then to VFR this afternoon. Outlook... Tonight...Late night and early morning fog possible, with localized IFR/LIFR Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. Thursday night and Friday...VFR to IFR with a chance of showers. Saturday...Showers with MVFR flight conditions return. && .MARINE... High pressure will build across the lower Great lakes today with a light northerly wind flow. Fog patches on the lakes are possible early this morning. Winds will become southerly tonight ahead of the next surface trough, with wind speeds increasing to around 10 knots or so by Wednesday. Winds will increase further on Thursday ahead of a cold front with a SSW flow around 15 knots. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA