267
FXUS61 KBUF 291353
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
953 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few widely scattered to scattered showers will linger southeast
and east of Lake Ontario today, while our coolest airmass in a few
months brings well below normal temperatures. High pressure will
then gradually settle across the region through the long holiday
weekend...bringing dry weather and a warming trend that will last
into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of mid morning...regional radars continue to show some spotty
lake-enhanced and orographically-driven showers southeast and east
of Lake Ontario. These will generally tend to diminish in coverage
through early this afternoon as our airmass continues to dry out...
then may briefly pick up again during the mid-late afternoon east of
Lake Ontario as another shortwave rounds the base of the upper low
over Quebec. This could generate a few more widely scattered showers
across the North Country during that time frame...while the
remainder of the region remains dry.

Otherwise...our coolest airmass in months (850 mb temps of +2C to
+4C) will result in well below normal highs in the lower to mid 60s
across the lower elevations today...with the higher terrain not
making it out of the upper 50s. Lows tonight will then tumble well
into the 40s inland from the lakeshores, with some upper 30s
possible across the Southern Tier valleys and Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly dry conditions are expected for the entire period as high
pressure and a ridge build into the region from the west, pushing a
vertically stacked system (which is currently over the area now)
further to the east. Guidance is trending toward a scenario for
Monday where a cut-off mid-level low develops over or just south of
the area. This will occur as the incoming ridge cuts off the
departing negatively tilted trough over the weekend. If this
scenario does develop, then there will be an increased chance for
some showers on Monday afternoon, which some guidance is suggesting.

Day-to-day warming is expected for the holiday weekend as we reach
the end of meteorological summer. Temperatures for Saturday, while
comfortable will remain below normal for the entire area.
Temperatures on Sunday will be near normal with most of the area in
the low to mid 70s, and by Monday the entire area is expected to
warm to near to a few degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday afternoon as the
mid-level cut-off low opens into an approaching trough from the
northwest over Canada. A few showers to start on Tuesday may be
possible until the low weakens and opens, but with a sfc high over
and just to the east, any showers should be limited.

As the approaching trough tracks closer to the area, digging
southeast out of Canada and amplifying in the process, showers will
approach the area along the systems warm and cold fronts starting
Wednesday evening. Showers will expand in spatial coverage just west
of the area as a weak southern stream sfc low and influx of Gulf
moisture surges north. Showers ahead of and along the cold front
will continue for the entire day on Thursday before the front passes
later in the evening on Thursday.

Above normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday in the low 70s
to low 80s will cool to near and below normal for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings across the higher terrain will
gradually improve to VFR through the midday/early afternoon
hours...with general VFR conditions expected otherwise. Some spotty
showers southeast/east of Lake Ontario will also tend to thin out
through the early afternoon hours...with a few more widely scattered
showers then possible east of Lake Ontario during the mid to late
afternoon.

A few lake enhanced showers may spark up east and southeast of Lake
Ontario tonight supporting a return of MVFR CIGS. Otherwise with
high pressure building in across western New York will support VFR
conditions elsewhere.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley fog
each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually weaken but remain on the elevated side today
and Saturday, especially on Lake Ontario resulting in a moderate
chop.

Additionally, waterspouts will be possible on Lake Ontario this
morning and then again tonight with passing showers on the eastern
end of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/JJR
NEAR TERM...EAJ/JJR
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...EAJ/JJR
MARINE...EAJ