192
FXUS61 KBUF 252251
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather will persist through Saturday, then chances for rain
return Sunday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will persist through Saturday, then
chances for rain return Sunday through Monday.

Expansive surface high pressure across eastern Ontario and Quebec
will remain in place through Saturday morning before drifting east
to Labrador Sunday. Subsidence and dry air associated with this high
will continue to support dry weather areawide tonight through
Saturday, although there will be more high clouds than the past few
days.

Meanwhile, an unseasonably strong coastal low off the Delmarva
tonight will remain in place through Saturday while maturing and
occluding. The coastal low will then complete a cyclonic loop to the
south of Long Island Saturday night through Sunday, nearing the
Jersey shore by late Sunday and Sunday night. The westward drift in
the position of the vertically stacked low will advect Atlantic
moisture westward across NY/PA, with thickening and lowering clouds.
The first chance of showers will reach Central NY Sunday morning,
then progress gradually westward as an inverted trough axis north of
the low center rotates westward. Showers may reach the Genesee
Valley and western Finger Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Far
western NY should stay dry most of Sunday, although a few light
showers may arrive by late afternoon or evening given the westward
trend in recent model guidance.

The coastal low is then forecast to slowly meander northeast along
the New England coast Sunday night through Tuesday, weakening with
time. The greatest rain chances and greatest western extent of the
rain shield will be Sunday night, with showers then gradually
tapering off and ending from west to east Monday through Monday
night as the low weakens and moves northeast. Mainly dry weather
will return for most of the area by Tuesday, and Tuesday night for
the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place across eastern Ontario and Quebec
through Saturday, with associated subsidence and dry air keeping the
eastern Great Lakes dry. There will likely be some patchy fog in the
river valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes overnight
through Saturday morning with local IFR, but this will not impact
any of the TAF locations. Otherwise, expect areas of cirrus at times
with more high clouds than recent days.

Outlook...

Sunday...A chance of showers gradually developing from east to west
across the area. VFR in most areas, with some MVFR across the higher
terrain of Central NY and the North Country.

Monday...Chance of showers gradually ending from west to east.
Mainly VFR, with some MVFR across the higher terrain of Central NY
and the North Country.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly dry weather and VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become north-northeast and increase overnight on the
lower Great Lakes, producing a moderate chop for much of the area.
The highest winds and wave action in the nearshore zones will be
found from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay, where conditions will
approach low end Small Craft Advisory criteria Saturday.

Winds will increase further late Saturday night and Sunday as the
coastal low along the east coast makes its closest pass. This will
bring solid Small Craft Advisory conditions to the Hamlin Beach to
Mexico Bay nearshores, with marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions
elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
         LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock