480
FXUS61 KBUF 171736
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
136 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms through early this evening
with areas of fog overnight.

2) Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is forecast for the midweek period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Isolated showers and thunderstorms through early this
evening.

Cold front slowly pushing across central New York this afternoon.
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two expected through
this early evening with enough low-level convergence and moist
ascent along the cold front. The better coverage of activity will be
east of the Genesee valley with a drying trend across far western
New York as a surface ridge builds in behind the cold front.

Clearing and light winds accompanying the ridge should contribute to
areas of fog overnight tonight, especially in the river valleys of
the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario
Region. Patchy radiation fog should also form during the same time
period, especially inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst
lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall.

Key Message 2...Another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms is forecast for the midweek period.

High pressure will drift east by Tuesday night, allowing a warm
front to push into western New York. Cyclonic flow aloft becomes
established over our area and with a few embedded shortwave
disturbances moving through the region as a cold front makes it way
across the region Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected after midnight Tuesday night through
Wednesday as weak to perhaps moderate instability develops within
the warm sector ahead of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN low-level clouds remain across much of western NY with MVFR
conditions continuing at most terminals early this afternoon.
Additionally, scattered showers continue across north-central NY
near KART. Expecting conditions to gradually improve through the
afternoon and early evening with decreasing cloud cover and mostly
northerly light winds. With light low-level winds and minimal upper
level cloud cover, efficient radiational cooling will allow for fog
development in spots, especially those receiving rainfall earlier in
the day. KJHW, and terminals in the Southern Tier, are most likely
to see fog development with IFR conditions, but HREF and GLAMP
guidance all show non-zero probabilities for western and north-
central NY terminals between 8-12z. Fog will linger into early
Tuesday morning before clearing up.

Outlook...

Tuesday Afternoon...Dry weather and mainly VFR.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Dry weather and mainly VFR,
although localized fog in/near river/lake valleys is possible around
daybreak on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday...Scattered showers possible with MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
West-northwest winds at 15 knots or less behind the passage of a
cold front will continue into this evening before becoming light
overnight. High pressure building over the eastern Great lakes
Tuesday will allow for mainly onshore breezes to develop. Southwest
winds should freshen ahead of a cold front Wednesday, with mainly
west-northwest winds developing behind the front Wednesday night
through Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...TMA