373
FXUS61 KBUF 290555
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
155 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Record warmth possible today.

2)A chance of showers tonight. Dry weather then resumes Friday and
lasts through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth possible today.

Mild, potentially record breaking (see climate section) and dry
today ahead of an incoming cold front. Winds will pick up today as a
strengthening low-level jet of 35 to 45 knot moves over the eastern
Great Lakes. That said...poor low level lapse rates will prevent
full mixing of stronger winds from aloft, but channeling down Lake
Erie may still support gusts of 30-40 mph across the Niagara
Frontier in the afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected
elsewhere. Otherwise...another mild day with Max T`s peaking in the
low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of showers tonight. Dry weather then
resumes Friday and lasts through the weekend.

A weak cold front will begin to cross the eastern Great Lakes
late this evening and tonight. Decent forcing and moisture
convergence will likely support some showers and maybe even a
rumble of thunder as guidance shows MUCAPE values of 150-200
J/kg. Precipitation wise, amounts look very meager with most
spots only picking up a few hundredths of an inch, with localize
higher amounts. Showers will exit before daybreak Friday, with
high pressure then building back into the region later Friday
through the weekend with another extended stretch of dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southwest winds will strengthen ahead of a cold front today, expect
gusts of 15 to 25 knots for much of the area, and 25 to 35 knots
across the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie. Otherwise...VFR
across all terminals.

Tonight...the cold front will cross the region with a few showers,
possibly even an embedded rumble of thunder. VFR cigs will
deteriorate to MVFR with IFR across the higher terrain overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...Areas of MVFR-IFR CIGS early, improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will pick up today ahead of a cold front nearing the
Lower Lakes. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop on Lake
Erie and the western portion of Lake America by this afternoon.
Winds will veer to the northwest tonight through Friday behind the
cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for
eastern portion of Lake America, especially in the nearshore
zones east of Hamlin Beach. Winds and wave action will gradually
subside Friday as high pressure begins to build in from the
west. Light winds and waves expected Saturday as the surface
high moves overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (11 days) in
most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and
sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some
increase in wildfire risk. Luckily, the forecast does not show a
significant overlap of strong, gusty winds and low relative
humidity values through this weekend.

A weak cold front and weather disturbance passing through
tonight should generate mainly light rain showers, but
resulting rainfall amounts should be less than 0.10". Dry
weather will then follow Friday and last through the weekend. As
a result, fine fuels and leaf litter should remain very dry.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, October
30th.

Buffalo,   NY   74 (1971)

Rochester, NY   76 (1896)

Watertown, NY   73 (1955)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
FIRE WEATHER...AR/Hitchcock
CLIMATE...SGK