Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
156 FXUS61 KBUF 112350 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 750 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level low will spiral across our region through Monday night, producing rain showers at times for our region. Surface high pressure will build towards our region Tuesday, bringing fair weather, though a cold front Tuesday night may produce a few spotty showers, but more noticeable, cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs only in the 50s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Satellite imagery showing a closed low sitting over western New York this evening, with a couple bands of showers were arcing northward across the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes. Shower activity will continue through much of the night across the Genesee valley and Finger lakes, as surge of moisture is sent into the region on a southeasterly low level jet. Some of this shower activity could reach into far western New York overnight. Though this closed mid level low will remain near our region for Sunday, moisture aloft will be fading, allowing for much of the day to be rainfree. However, another prolonged stretch of easterly flow will again replenish moisture aloft over our region bringing rain showers back into our region for Sunday night. Overall QPF is not expected to be much, with perhaps a half an inch tonight through the end of the weekend for the Upper Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region, and a quarter to half an inch east of Lake Ontario. Given the ongoing drought, all rain will be beneficial. With Sunday a bit more sunny, and the cold air within the closed low not as cool, afternoon highs Sunday should top out in the upper 60s for the lower elevations, and low to mid 60s for higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Monday will feature one more day with overcast conditions and scattered rain showers as an easterly flow continues to advect Atlantic moisture westward. Greatest chances for showers will be to our east. A large area of high pressure will follow this departing Atlantic surface low, with the surface high bringing fair weather to our region Tuesday. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward across our region Tuesday night, possibly bringing a few rain showers, but more noticeable will be the cooler airmass that follows. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will only be in the 50s, while overnight temperatures will drop back into the 30s, and inland mid to upper 20s. This will again bring frost and freeze concerns to areas where the growing season continues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A ridge of surface high pressure will become squeezed over our region to end the week, with a continued Atlantic low spiraling south of Atlantic Canada, and another incoming shortwave trough from the west. Chances for showers will increase if not Friday, by Saturday with the weakening surface and lower level ridge of high pressure and upstream trough approaches. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A compact mid-level low over far western New York this evening will slowly work eastward and weaken over the region tonight, where it will then stall out through Sunday. This will result in variable though predominantly VFR cigs. Cigs of 2500`-4000` will likely persist from KJHW north to KBUF/KROC, with the lowest conditions across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Some IFR restrictions will be possible across the Southern Tier tonight as additional moisture advects into the region well out ahead of a strengthening coastal low. Some localized MVFR may linger Sunday morning, though VFR will otherwise prevail through the day with diminished shower chances at the TAF sites. Outlook... Sunday night...MVFR/IFR restrictions possible with increasing chances for showers, mainly south and east of KBUF and KROC. Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers, mainly east of KROC. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... With a weakening area of surface low pressure along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario through this evening, easterly winds will remain around 10-18 knots on Lake Ontario into the overnight hours, with lighter winds on Lake Erie. As the surface low drops south of Lake Ontario later tonight and the surface pressure gradient tightens along the entire portion of Lake Ontario, these easterly winds will begin to increase. Easterly winds may become elevated enough Sunday and Monday to potentially warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions on the central and western portions of Lake Ontario. Winds gradually lighten Monday night and then remain light into the day Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...PP/TMA MARINE...Thomas/TMA