Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
526 FXUS61 KBUF 080640 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Mainly dry weather to continue today and into tonight. 2) A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night, producing showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday night. High pressure over the area will sink to our south to the Mid- Atlantic region in response to a weakening backdoor front dropping out of Canada. While most of the area will continue to see dry weather today, an isolated shower can`t be ruled out across the St. Lawrence Valley and areas east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...fairly nice weather will continue with partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Tonight...more of the same dry weather expected to continue in advance of an approaching cold frontal system. Not quite as cool with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low-mid 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night, producing showers and thunderstorms. A mid level shortwave trough cuts across Ontario and Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, with its trailing cold front working across the eastern Great Lakes region. Deep rich moisture and large scale forcing for ascent will support some showers and scattered thunderstorms development in the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Given the high PWAT (1.9-2.1 inches) environment any stronger storms may be capable of producing torrential downpours, although as was noted storms should move right along and keep the flood risk low. As far as the severe storm potential, forecast guidance shows very weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) but decent 0-6KM bulk shear values of 35-45 knots. This may be enough to support a few stronger storms but again the overall lake of stronger instability will likely hold down the severe weather risk. With the passage of the cold front showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage but a few showers may linger Thursday. Dry weather returns Thursday night and Friday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some limited river valley fog may bring IFR conditions briefly to KJHW this morning. Otherwise...all other terminals will continue to see VFR. High pressure will sink south to the Mid-Alantic region today in response to a backdoor front dropping south out of Canada. An isolated shower may be possible across the St. Lawrence Valley and areas east of Lake Ontario to include KART. Little impact to airport operations with a continuation of VFR. Tonight...VFR conditions will continue ahead of an approaching cold front. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and a few thunderstorm will be possibles, mainly late afternoon through Wednesday evening. Local/brief IFR in thunderstorms. Thursday...MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR. A small chance of a few showers across the Southern Tier. Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will sink to our south today as a backdoor cold front drops south out of Canada but light winds and minimal wave action expected again today. A cold front will near the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday with increasing S to SSW flow producing Small Craft Advisory (SCAs) conditions through Wednesday night on both lakes. As the cold front crosses the Lower Lakes expected some showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce higher wind and wave action. Winds will remain elevated Wednesday night behind the cold front but will begin to slowly diminish on Thursday. High pressure builds towards the lakes Thursday night into Friday with lighter winds and diminishing wave action. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR