400
FNUS51 KBUF 161805
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
104 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Strong low pressure over New England today will move slowly to the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday, supporting windy and colder
weather across the eastern Great Lakes. Persistent upslope snow will
bring moderate accumulations to the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario, with moderate accumulations from lake effect snow across
the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier inland from Lake
Erie. Lake effect snow will also bring some minor accumulations
southeast of Lake Ontario including Rochester and the Finger Lakes.
Outside of these areas, only a few passing flurries with minimal
accumulation is expected through Monday. High pressure will then
build into the region with a return to mainly dry weather by the
middle of the week.

NYZ201-162100-
Lake Ontario Plains-
104 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Mon
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                   Showers Snow Showers Snow Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  70           60           50
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0
Max/Min Temp                       41           25           39
Min/Max Humidity (%)               54          100           50
AM Wind (mph)                W 15 G36                 NW 13 G27
PM Wind (mph)               NW 17 G38    NW 15 G37     W 13 G27
Precip Amount                    0.07         0.05         0.03
Precip Duration                     7            9            4
Precip Begin                     7 AM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6180                      5540
Transport Wind (kts)            NW 28        NW 24        NW 23
Vent Rate (kt-ft)              173040            0       127420
Dispersion Index                  173            0          127
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-162100-
Southern Tier-
104 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Mon
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                   Showers         Snow Snow Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  50           50           40
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0
Max/Min Temp                       41           25           37
Min/Max Humidity (%)               51          100           44
AM Wind (mph)               NW 16 G34                 NW 13 G27
PM Wind (mph)               NW 17 G40    NW 16 G38    NW 13 G27
Precip Amount                    0.08         0.07         0.03
Precip Duration                     5            9            2
Precip Begin                     7 AM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6300           20         5660
Transport Wind (kts)            NW 32        NW 24        NW 27
Vent Rate (kt-ft)              201600          480       152820
Dispersion Index                  202            0          153
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows
around 30.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
lower 40s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Rain showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower
50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s.

WIND MONDAY NIGHT...West around 10 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...West around 5 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...Light winds.
WIND THURSDAY...Light winds.
WIND FRIDAY...Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
WIND SATURDAY...West around 5 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$