441
FNUS51 KBUF 162105
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Deep low pressure over Maine will move slowly across the Canadian
Maritimes through Monday, while supporting windy and colder weather
across our region. Persistent upslope snow will bring moderate
accumulations to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, with
moderate accumulations from lake effect snow across the higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier inland from Lake Erie. Lake
effect snow will also bring some modest accumulations southeast of
Lake Ontario including Rochester and the Finger Lakes. Outside of
these areas, only a few passing flurries and minimal accumulation is
expected through Monday. High pressure will then build into the
region with a return to mainly dry weather expected by the middle of
the week.

NYZ201-170900-
Lake Ontario Plains-
404 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

                              Tonight          Mon    Mon Night          Tue
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type              Snow Showers Snow Showers         None         None
Chance Precip (%)                  60           50            0            0
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0            0
Min/Max Temp                       25           39           24           41
Max/Min Humidity (%)              100           50           97           55
AM Wind (mph)                            NW 13 G27                      W  7
PM Wind (mph)               NW 15 G37     W 13 G27     W  9 G22         W  7
Precip Amount                    0.05         0.03         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration                     9            4
Precip Begin                     6 PM   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)                        5540                      4440
Transport Wind (kts)            NW 24        NW 23        NW 17         W 13
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                   0       127420            0        57720
Dispersion Index                    0          127            0           58
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-170900-
Southern Tier-
404 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

                              Tonight          Mon    Mon Night          Tue
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type                      Snow Snow Showers         None         None
Chance Precip (%)                  50           40            0            0
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0            0
Min/Max Temp                       25           37           25           40
Max/Min Humidity (%)              100           44           96           43
AM Wind (mph)                            NW 13 G27                      W  6
PM Wind (mph)               NW 16 G38    NW 13 G27     W  9 G21         W  5
Precip Amount                    0.07         0.03         0.00         0.00
Precip Duration                     9            2
Precip Begin                     6 PM   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)             10         5790                      5390
Transport Wind (kts)            NW 22        NW 27        NW 17         W 12
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                 220       156330            0        64680
Dispersion Index                    0          156            0           65
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Rain showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower
50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
40s.

WIND TUESDAY NIGHT...Light winds.
WIND WEDNESDAY...Light winds.
WIND THURSDAY...Light winds.
WIND FRIDAY...Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
WIND SATURDAY...West around 5 mph.
WIND SUNDAY...Southwest around 5 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$