843
FNUS51 KBUF 161405
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1005 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Summertime heat and humidity will prevail across our region through
Thursday...along with unsettled conditions that will feature a few
rounds of mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms...with the
greatest coverage of storms expected this afternoon and evening from
the Southern Tier into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes. While a
few storms may produce localized gusty winds and heavy rainfall...
other areas may receive little or no rain given their generally
scattered nature. Following the passage of a cold front...drier and
cooler air will then overspread our region for Friday and Saturday.

NYZ201-162000-
Lake Ontario Plains-
1005 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Thu
Cloud Cover                    Mclear        Pcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance Precip (%)                  30           50           60
Chance of Thunder (%)              30           50           50
Max/Min Temp                       90           67           87
Min/Max Humidity (%)               45          100           59
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                      S  5
PM Wind (mph)                   SW  5      Lgt/Var    SW 11 G24
Precip Amount                    0.08         0.16         0.19
Precip Duration                     2            2            4
Precip Begin                     2 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6350                      4750
Transport Wind (kts)            SW  9         S  8        SW 22
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               57150            0       104500
Dispersion Index                   57            0          104
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-162000-
Southern Tier-
1005 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Thu
Cloud Cover                     Pcldy        Mcldy        Pcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance Precip (%)                  60           60           60
Chance of Thunder (%)              60           50           50
Max/Min Temp                       87           67           86
Min/Max Humidity (%)               50          100           57
AM Wind (mph)                 Lgt/Var                     SW  7
PM Wind (mph)                   SW  5      Lgt/Var        SW 13
Precip Amount                    0.18         0.13         0.10
Precip Duration                     4            4            3
Precip Begin                     1 PM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6090                      5660
Transport Wind (kts)            SW 10         S  8         W 26
Vent Rate (kt-ft)               60900            0       147160
Dispersion Index                   61            0          147
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 60.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around
80.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the mid
60s. Highs in the upper 70s.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the
upper 70s.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the lower 80s.

WIND THURSDAY NIGHT...Southwest around 10 mph.
WIND FRIDAY...North around 5 mph.
WIND SATURDAY...East around 5 mph.
WIND SUNDAY...North around 5 mph.
WIND MONDAY...North around 5 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...Southeast around 5 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation near normal.

$$