411
FNUS51 KBUF 160305
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1004 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure will pass just north of the area tonight, with showers
and thunderstorms moving from west to east into this evening. The
rain will taper off later this evening following the passage of a
cold front. The low will continue to strengthen over New England
tonight through Sunday, producing gusty winds across the eastern
Great Lakes. Colder air behind the system will also bring lake
effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday through Monday,
and some upslope snow for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario
with light to locally moderate accumulations.

NYZ201-160900-
Lake Ontario Plains-
1004 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

                              Tonight          Sun    Sun Night          Mon
Cloud Cover                    Cloudy        Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms      Showers Snow Showers Snow Showers
Chance Precip (%)                 100           80           70           50
Chance of Thunder (%)              20            0            0            0
Min/Max Temp                       36           43           25           39
Max/Min Humidity (%)              100           54          100           52
AM Wind (mph)                             W 15 G32                 NW 12 G26
PM Wind (mph)               SW 10 G28    NW 16 G33    NW 14 G30     W 13 G26
Precip Amount                    0.30         0.11         0.09         0.04
Precip Duration                     8           10            8            2
Precip Begin                     6 PM   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)                        6380                      6020
Transport Wind (kts)             S 15        NW 30        NW 25        NW 22
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                   0       191400            0       132440
Dispersion Index                    0          191            0          132
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-160900-
Southern Tier-
1004 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

                              Tonight          Sun    Sun Night          Mon
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                     Tstms      Showers Snow Showers Snow Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  90           70           60           40
Chance of Thunder (%)              50            0            0            0
Min/Max Temp                       33           40           25           37
Max/Min Humidity (%)              100           52           94           46
AM Wind (mph)                             W 15 G31                 NW 13 G26
PM Wind (mph)               SW 12 G26    NW 16 G34    NW 14 G34    NW 13 G23
Precip Amount                    0.16         0.10         0.08         0.03
Precip Duration                     5            9            5            2
Precip Begin                     6 PM   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing   Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)                        6340          110         5750
Transport Wind (kts)            SW 17        NW 33        NW 26        NW 26
Vent Rate (kt-ft)                   0       209220         2860       149500
Dispersion Index                    0          209            3          150
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs around
40.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs around 50.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the upper 40s.

WIND MONDAY NIGHT...West around 10 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...West around 5 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...North around 5 mph.
WIND THURSDAY...North around 5 mph.
WIND FRIDAY...East around 5 mph.
WIND SATURDAY...South 5 to 10 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$