884
FNUS51 KBUF 160905
FWFBUF

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Western New York
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Strong low pressure over New England today will move slowly to the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday, supporting windy and colder
weather across the eastern Great Lakes. Persistent upslope snow will
bring moderate accumulations to the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario, with moderate accumulations from lake effect snow across
the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier inland from Lake
Erie. Lake effect snow will also bring some minor accumulations
southeast of Lake Ontario including Rochester and the Finger Lakes.
Outside of these areas, only a few passing flurries with minimal
accumulation is expected through Monday. High pressure will then
build into the region with a return to mainly dry weather by the
middle of the week.

NYZ201-162100-
Lake Ontario Plains-
404 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Mon
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                   Showers Snow Showers Snow Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  60           60           50
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0
Max/Min Temp                       42           25           39
Min/Max Humidity (%)               53          100           52
AM Wind (mph)                W 16 G36                 NW 13 G26
PM Wind (mph)               NW 17 G38    NW 15 G37     W 13 G26
Precip Amount                    0.08         0.05         0.03
Precip Duration                     6            7            3
Precip Begin                     6 AM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6090                      5340
Transport Wind (kts)            NW 29        NW 25        NW 23
Vent Rate (kt-ft)              176610            0       122820
Dispersion Index                  177            0          123
Remarks...None.

$$

NYZ200-162100-
Southern Tier-
404 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

                                Today      Tonight          Mon
Cloud Cover                     Mcldy        Mcldy        Mcldy
Precip Type                   Showers         Snow Snow Showers
Chance Precip (%)                  50           50           30
Chance of Thunder (%)               0            0            0
Max/Min Temp                       41           24           37
Min/Max Humidity (%)               52           96           45
AM Wind (mph)               NW 16 G34                 NW 13 G25
PM Wind (mph)               NW 17 G37    NW 15 G35     W 13 G25
Precip Amount                    0.08         0.05         0.02
Precip Duration                     5            9            2
Precip Begin                     6 AM   Continuing   Continuing
Precip End                 Continuing   Continuing         6 PM
Mixing Height (ft-agl)           6340          110         5690
Transport Wind (kts)            NW 34        NW 26        NW 27
Vent Rate (kt-ft)              215560         2860       153630
Dispersion Index                  216            3          154
Remarks...None.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows
in the upper 20s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 40.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
lower 40s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s.

WIND MONDAY NIGHT...West around 10 mph.
WIND TUESDAY...West around 5 mph.
WIND WEDNESDAY...Northeast around 5 mph.
WIND THURSDAY...Light winds.
WIND FRIDAY...Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
WIND SATURDAY...West 5 to 10 mph.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$