396
FXUS65 KBYZ 171510
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
810 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weather system brings isolated to scattered lower elevation rain
  and mountain snow to Wyoming and southern Montana today.

- Unsettled and cool conditions continue through the week.

- Windy conditions are possible in the Livingston/Big Timber
  vicinity Friday night into the weekend.
&&

.UPDATE...
Edited to add mention of Freezing Rain in discussion.

Cold advection over SE Montana has temperatures near freezing over
areas east of a Miles City to Broadus line. At the same time
energy and warm advection is moving up from the south generating
an area of scattered precipitation. For a few hours this morning
expect a mix of rain/freezing rain/maybe a few snow flakes
(20-40% chance) to work over this area before temperatures warm
enough to turn any precipitation over to all rain (around 10am or
so). Adjusted the forecast to add mention of mixed precipitation
for this area. Roads should stay just above freezing so not
anticipating widespread travel impacts, that said use caution if
precipitation is encountered, especially on bridges and
overpasses, until temperatures warm up later this morning. Rest of
the forecast looks good. Temperatures should push well above
normal (55-63deg) again this afternoon for central and western
zones without too much wind, so get out and enjoy it. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current satellite imagery showed an upper trough moving from Utah
into southern Wyoming. Bands of precipitation were rotating around
this feature across central Wyoming slowly heading north. As this
weather system moves across southern Wyoming into the Nebraska
Panhandle today we will see increasing clouds from the south with
isolated to scattered showers...mainly along the WY/MT border by
midday through the afternoon. Most areas wont see more than a few
hundredths of precip, and snow in the high country looks
negligible now with less than an inch above 7500 ft. However, some
portions of SE MT (Carter Co.) may pick up a tenth locally thanks
to some low level convergence and a weak trowal feature associated
with the system. As the trough slides east tonight precip should
come to an end.

Ridging kicks in late tonight into Tuesday and should lead to
mostly dry conditions will slightly above normal temps. However,
there is a subtle hint of a weak perturbation within the ridge
tracking across our central zones Tuesday, so we have a slight
chance of light showers mentioned there.

Wednesday...the northern branch of a split flow pattern crosses
Montana bringing us a chance of lower elevation showers and
mountain snow. Models have trended less aggressive with this
system, with only a 15-20% chance of a tenth of liquid precip for
most locations, the exception is about a 45% chance over the
mountains above Red Lodge where some light snow may accumulate.

Ensembles agree that Thursday through Sunday looks rather benign
pattern-wise with low amplitude ridging or perhaps zonal flow
prevailing. The only impact weather may be strong cross winds
developing in the Livingston/Big Timber area Friday night into
Saturday.

High temperatures will be in the upper 40s and 50s through the
week with lows in the upper 20s and 30s. BT


.AVIATION...


09z Discussion...

Increasing clouds will continue the partial obscuration of all
mountains. Light rain showers are forecast off and on through the
entire period for Northern WY and the mountain Foothills
(KSHR/KLVM). Isolated showers are expected for KBIL.

Through this morning, patchy fog is possible in the plains with a
higher likelihood along river valleys. KMLS may briefly see a
reduction in VIS down to IFR through 14z. No VIS reductions are
expected at KBIL. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 041/057 036/052 030/051 031/054 034/053 033/048
    1/B 12/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    01/B    12/W
LVM 058 036/056 033/050 029/053 030/053 032/051 032/048
    1/B 31/B    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/B    23/W
HDN 054 035/057 034/052 028/051 026/054 031/055 030/050
    1/B 22/W    23/W    20/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 050 031/053 035/052 026/049 028/053 032/053 031/048
    0/B 00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 050 033/054 036/052 029/049 029/053 032/052 031/047
    3/R 11/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
BHK 047 027/053 034/052 025/046 025/051 029/050 026/047
    1/E 10/B    11/E    10/U    00/U    00/B    10/B
SHR 055 034/055 030/052 026/051 025/053 027/053 026/048
    3/R 22/W    22/W    20/U    00/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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