994
FXUS65 KBYZ 210829
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
229 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and mostly dry today.

- Weather system brings the chance of precipitation back to the
  region this weekend. The risk of severe thunderstorms is low.
  Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall.

- Drier with seasonal temps next week and an occasional chance of
  precipitation.


&&

.UPDATE...
Light showers, mainly sprinkles, have developed across SE MT in
the early morning hours. These look induced by right entrance
region of weak mid level jet along with LLJ at 850 mb. Added some
low PoPs for this through about 14Z (8 AM) when LLJ weakens. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 Today through Thursday...

Today will continue to be hot, with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s, and mostly dry under an upper level ridge. There is a low
chance (less than 20%) for showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains this afternoon and evening. This afternoon, winds will
turn out of the east and become breezy, with widespread gusts of
15 to 25 mph through the evening.

By Saturday, a disturbance approaches from the Pacific northwest,
turning upper level flow out of the southwest and allowing
increased moisture (PWATs 150-200% of normal) to enter the
region. A weak shortwave moving through will provide enough energy
for showers and thunderstorms (40-70% chance, highest over the
Absaroka/Beartooth mountains). Currently, the risk for severe
storms is low, but any storm will be capable of producing heavy
rain.

As the disturbance slides east along the Canadian border Sunday
into Monday, a cold front drops through the region. Widespread
gusts of 20 to 35 mph are expected Sunday with this frontal
passage, as well as a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
As the disturbance moves east of the region into Monday, drier air
moves in across central Montana. While the increased atmospheric
moisture will limit the fire weather risk a bit for much of the
weekend, dry conditions behind the cold front Sunday may result in
a short period of increased fire weather conditions. Locations
along the Montana/Wyoming border will still have moisture near to
slightly above normal (PWATs 100-120% of normal) and will see a
low chance (10-40%) for precipitation Monday afternoon and
evening.

By Tuesday, upper level ridging builds in again. Increased
moisture (PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will continue to enter
the region and allow daily low chances (10-40%) for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will continue to be in
the 80s to near 90 next week. Archer


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through today.
Wildfire smoke concentrations are not expected to impact
surface visibility, but slant range visibility will be affected
at times. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 064/091 065/094 063/088 061/085 061/089 061/087
    0/U 02/E    33/T    31/U    21/B    01/B    21/B
LVM 094 057/089 055/089 052/086 051/084 051/086 051/085
    0/U 15/T    64/T    21/U    31/U    11/B    21/B
HDN 093 062/095 064/096 061/089 058/086 056/091 059/089
    1/B 01/E    23/T    31/U    11/B    01/U    21/B
MLS 091 062/091 067/096 065/089 059/083 057/087 060/088
    0/U 00/B    41/U    30/U    10/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 093 063/091 067/095 065/089 061/084 058/089 062/089
    1/B 01/B    31/U    41/U    21/U    00/B    21/B
BHK 090 055/088 061/093 060/090 055/084 050/086 055/087
    0/U 00/B    53/W    21/U    10/U    00/U    12/W
SHR 094 058/092 060/092 057/086 055/083 053/088 055/087
    1/U 12/E    26/T    33/W    23/T    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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