058
FXUS65 KBYZ 280708
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
108 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms are possible
  overnight across southeast Montana.

- Good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
  Beartooth/Absaroka mountains and SE Montana today.

- Mild and dry pattern prevails Tuesday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Next 7 days (through next Sunday)...

Split troffing will be over the area today. This will keep
isolated to scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms,
in the forecast through early evening. Outside of far southeast
Montana, none of this activity is expected to be very substantial.
There is a slight chance for a strong storm or two late
afternoon/early evening along the eastern state line counties
(Fallon/Carter), but models are keeping the majority of the
stronger activity east of Montana. Monday night drier air will
build in from the west as the weak trof aloft exits to the east.
This will bring an end to precipitation chances across the region
by late evening.

Models continue to advertise a mild and mainly dry forecast for
the week ahead. There have been a couple of weak cool air
intrusions added into the models over the past 24 hours. One
arrives Wednesday as a weak dry cold front, and a similar
situation develops for Saturday. Ahead of the Wednesday front,
forecast high temperatures on Tuesday have increased into the mid
to upper 70s with a few lower 80s not out of the question. Behind
the front Wednesday, highs drop about 10 degrees back to around
70. Highs for the rest of the week into the weekend range between
65 and 75 degrees with a lot of sunshine and dry conditions.
Expect breezy conditions in the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday
across western (Livingston, Big Timber, Harlowton) and northern
(Harlowton to Baker) portions of the forecast area. Chambers


.AVIATION...

Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over southeast
Montana through 12Z. A few storms may produce strong winds and
small hail. Stratus and localized fog are also possible over SE
Montana after from 09Z to 17Z this morning, with MVFR to IFR
flight categories possible at KMLS/KBHK/K4BQ. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms ar expected to impact the Beartooths and Big
Horns today as well. Mtn tops may be obscured at times with strong
local surface winds. This may impact the KLVM and KSHR
vicinities. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070 046/077 050/071 044/068 047/074 050/068 045/068
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 070 039/075 044/071 038/071 042/076 044/068 039/070
    2/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    10/U
HDN 070 043/078 046/071 042/070 044/076 047/069 043/069
    1/E 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
MLS 070 047/077 050/069 043/066 045/074 050/068 045/066
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
4BQ 070 048/077 050/070 045/068 047/075 050/069 045/067
    2/W 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
BHK 071 046/077 048/070 039/064 041/073 046/068 041/064
    2/W 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
SHR 067 042/075 043/070 040/069 041/075 044/068 040/068
    3/W 21/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings