191
FXUS65 KBYZ 132106
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
206 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures continue through Friday; a few
  daily record highs may be approached.

- Strong winds along the western foothills tonight and Friday;
  impacts to travel on I-90 through Livingston.

- Weak Pacific system brings cooler (but not cold) temps and
  scattered showers Friday; temps remain warmer than normal
  through the weekend.

- There is potential for a cooler and wetter weather system during
  the first half of next week, but high uncertainty exists at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...

Current analysis shows the ridge axis over the region allowing
for well above average temperatures and dry conditions. Highs will
be in the 60s to low 70s Friday which is about 15-20 degrees
above average for this time of year. Ahead of troughing and an
associated frontal passage, a pattern favorable for gap winds in
the Livingston/Nye areas is still expected this evening through
Friday evening. The chance for gusts to 60 mph for these areas is
about 70% with a 20% chance for reaching 70 mph. Additionally,
breezy conditions will be felt in Big Timber up through
Harlowton. Gusts in the 40 to 55 mph range can be expected
through the day Friday. Moisture is expected to begin working its
way in Friday morning in the way of light rain with light to
moderate rainfall during the afternoon hours with the frontal
passage. Areas across the pains will generally see a trace up to a
couple tenths of rain. There is still quite a bit of spread in
the models regarding precipitation totals for the mountains,
particularly the Absaroka/Beartooths. With hi-res models leaning
towards higher precip amounts, snow amounts went up to 3-9 inches
in the highest peaks for Friday.

Ridging will set up for the remainder of the weekend with a system
moving up from the southwest late Sunday. Ensembles then begin to
show differences on the progression of that system and the
potential one to follow. Confidence is however high for cooler
conditions next week with temperatures returning to near normal.

High temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s again Friday,
cooling to the 50s for the weekend. Temperatures for the
beginning of the workweek remain a little uncertain, but
temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to low 50s for the
remainder of the period. TS


.AVIATION...

Strong southwesterly wind gusts will continue to impact KLVM into
Friday. Around the Absaroka-Beartooth Mountains, strong winds may
also induce some mountain wave activity tonight. A cold front
passage later Friday will then end the strong wind threat at KLVM,
but will spread breezy winds across much of the rest of the area,
with the strongest gusts up to 45 knots around K6S0 and K3HT.
This cold front will also bring scattered precipitation back to
the area Friday. With this, VFR conditions will prevail, but brief
MVFR conditions are possible under precipitation. Periodic
mountain obscurations will also develop over south-central Montana
beginning Friday morning. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/066 041/060 036/056 037/049 033/045 030/041 026/040
    01/N    20/B    00/B    23/W    43/W    22/W    12/W
LVM 048/060 038/058 034/055 037/050 033/047 027/042 023/042
    15/W    20/B    01/B    35/W    54/W    22/J    23/W
HDN 044/069 038/059 033/058 035/049 032/046 027/042 023/041
    02/E    51/B    00/B    23/W    54/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 039/065 034/054 031/055 035/046 031/042 027/041 024/040
    01/E    20/B    00/B    12/W    33/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 041/066 038/057 033/056 038/046 032/045 029/041 026/040
    00/B    20/B    00/B    13/W    32/W    21/B    11/B
BHK 040/066 032/052 029/055 031/043 026/041 024/039 022/040
    00/B    20/B    00/B    12/W    32/W    21/B    10/B
SHR 040/068 034/058 031/057 034/049 029/047 025/041 021/042
    00/B    30/B    00/B    34/W    44/W    32/W    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM MST Friday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings