531
FXUS65 KBYZ 052053
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
253 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weather system brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms
  to the area late Sunday into Monday. Thunderstorms will be
  capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Cannot rule out
  hail with discrete thunderstorms on Sunday as well.

- Windy conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday (wind gusts of
  25 to 50 mph, strongest in south-central MT Monday and eastern
  MT Tuesday). This will cause elevated fire weather conditions.

- Drier and warmer conditions are likely during the middle of next
  week ahead of another potential weather system next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...

Near to above normal temperatures under mostly sunny skies exist
today. Over south-eastern Carter County this afternoon, there is a
slight chance (15 percent) of showers. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected to prevail. As the mostly clear skies continue into
tonight, there is a slight chance (20 percent) of patchy fog over
portions of east-central Montana. Any fog that does develop would
dissipate shortly after sunrise on Sunday.

Sunday through Sunday night, the chance of precipitation returns
to the forecast across much of the area as the low pressure system
currently sitting over the Pacific Northwest approaches our area.
In the morning, there is a slight chance of showers (15 percent)
over Carter and Fallon Counties in eastern Montana. As
temperatures warm into the 80s and 90s by mid-day, warm air aloft
will initially inhibit any showers and thunderstorms for most
during the afternoon and early evening. With that said,
temperatures may become warm enough to break the cap over far
eastern Montana into North Dakota and South Dakota during the late
afternoon and early evening. With this, there is a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 out of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The
main threats are strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and hail. Sunday
evening into Sunday night, a shortwave trough rounding the low
pressure system to the west is then expected to move through the
area, bringing a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to
at least south- central Montana (up to 70 percent chance of
precipitation). Late Sunday night into early Monday morning,
lingering showers and weak thunderstorms may continue east into
eastern Montana (around a 20 percent chance). With the activity
Sunday night, gusty winds and heavy rain are the main threats.

Monday, the aforementioned low pressure system will move
northeastward through Montana. This will bring another round of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the
area during the day. With this, the chance of a strong to severe
thunderstorm is very low. The main hazard looks to be the synoptic
winds associated with the low pressure system. At this time,
widespread wind gusts in the 20s to 40s mph are forecast,
strongest over the foothills west of Billings. Areas around
Livingston to Big Timber and Harlowton may even see a few 50 mph
wind gusts late Monday (50 to 60 percent chance).

Tuesday, windy conditions look to continue across much of the
area, though the strongest winds will shift to be over far eastern
Montana. Again, wind gusts in the 20s to 40s mph are forecast to
be common, strongest to the north and east, with a few 50 mph wind
gusts possible around Baker, Montana (50 percent chance).

Wednesday into Friday are forecast to be mostly dry days as low
amplitude ridging nudges into the region aloft. By late Friday
into the weekend, the chance of precipitation returns, but
uncertainty remains regarding the upper level weather pattern. LA

.AVIATION...

Smoke from local wildfires across southeast MT may affect
visibility at times for KMLS and KBHK. There is about a 10-20%
chance for low clouds/fog behind light showers through the early
morning Sunday at KBIL and KMLS lasting through about 15Z. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/086 061/081 054/076 050/081 054/086 057/081 053/075
    00/B    73/T    00/N    00/B    00/U    11/B    32/W
LVM 048/084 051/073 041/072 041/080 047/083 049/079 045/074
    00/U    74/T    20/N    00/U    00/U    13/W    43/T
HDN 053/089 058/084 050/078 045/083 048/088 052/083 049/077
    00/U    43/T    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    32/W
MLS 062/091 065/085 054/076 049/081 051/087 055/082 051/076
    01/B    33/T    30/N    00/U    00/U    01/U    32/W
4BQ 061/093 068/087 055/079 050/082 054/088 057/084 054/079
    00/U    22/W    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    31/B
BHK 060/095 063/088 051/078 044/081 048/087 051/083 047/077
    02/W    23/T    20/N    00/U    00/U    01/U    32/W
SHR 054/089 057/083 046/076 044/080 048/085 050/082 048/076
    00/U    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings