655
FXUS65 KBYZ 051920
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1220 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry for the next 7 days.

- Gusty winds along the western foothills this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through next Thursday...

Persistent above normal heights across the western CONUS will keep
us warm & dry through at least the middle of next week...and
likely longer than that. The only chance of precip is associated
with a weak/splitting Pacific wave (currently over western ID)
that may bring a few light rain/snow showers to the Beartooth-
Absarokas this evening.

There are some foothills wind concerns (for the first time this
fall) as we enter a period of tightened downslope gradients
tonight to Sunday. In fact, we are already seeing reasonably high
gusts today, with up to 43 mph at Livingston this morning. A
better wind signature begins tomorrow. Expect periodic 35-45 mph
gusts along the western foothills Friday & Saturday. Strongest
wind potential which includes elevated gap flow is expected
Saturday night into Sunday, with 30-40 knot winds at 700mb and a
IDA-LWT gradient expected to exceed 12mb. Deepest pressure falls
and much stronger upper level winds will exist well to our north
near the MT/AB border, but conditions along our foothills do
suggest potential for 50 mph gusts (60% chance) and a chance of 60
mph gusts (30% chance) at Livingston & Nye, albeit somewhat
briefly. Sunday will be well-mixed and this will reduce gusts at
the gap areas and increase them (perhaps up to 50 mph) along the
US-191 corridor. A Sunday night fropa will reduce winds for Monday
and beyond, with periodic easterly winds.

As already mentioned, temps will remain persistently warmer than
normal, and not by a little. Normal highs have fallen to the mid
40s to lower 50s and we will likely see 50s/60s. The warmest day
looks to be the pre-frontal and well-mixed Sunday, with 700mb
temps surging to near +8C from Sheridan to Broadus. Temps on this
day should be well into the 60s with some locations reaching the
lower 70s. Daily records at our main climate stations are in the
mid to upper 70s and we may not quite get that warm. We`ll see.
Expect 50s for Monday & Tuesday, but ensemble trends show 60s
again for the middle of next week.

For those looking for a pattern shift to something colder and
snowy, there are currently no signs. There is very high
confidence for warm & dry weather continuing through at least the
following weekend (Nov 15th). Stay tuned.

JKL

.AVIATION...

Patchy fog is possible along the Yellowstone Valley east of
Billings between 09 and 15Z Friday. Wind gusts are expected to
remain around 20-25 kts along the foothills west of Billings
overnight tonight before increasing into the 25-30 kt range during
the day Friday. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/055 041/061 041/066 038/055 038/061 041/062 043/062
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B
LVM 029/054 032/060 036/065 034/057 035/060 035/061 036/062
    10/U    00/N    00/N    00/B    00/U    10/U    01/B
HDN 031/057 032/062 033/068 035/057 033/062 036/063 035/064
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B
MLS 033/055 036/061 036/065 038/054 034/059 038/061 038/063
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 035/056 035/063 038/068 038/056 035/061 039/063 039/065
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 029/055 035/061 035/066 037/054 031/059 036/061 037/064
    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 030/056 028/063 031/070 033/056 032/062 033/064 034/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings