701
FXUS65 KBYZ 172030
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
230 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Quieter weather pattern into Thursday.

- Active pattern with persistent precipitation chances by the end
  of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Wednesday night...

Weak shortwave energy sliding west to east through the region was
bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the area this afternoon. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to persist into the early evening hours before
decreasing. Marginal CAPE, but low shear (20-25 kts) exists over
the area. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with gusty
winds and small hail, but widespread severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

Drier and warmer conditions move in for Wednesday as ridging
builds over the region. Look for high temperatures on Wednesday in
the 80s for most locations. STP

Thursday through Tuesday...

There is good ensemble agreement that an upper level trough over
the Pacific Northwest will be the dominant pattern over the long
term. Thursday and Friday, upper level ridging will be over the
region leading to above average temperatures in the 80s F for most
locations. Thursday will see locations east of Billings have a
30-50% chance of getting a high temperature over 90 F with
lower chances to Friday. Saturday looks to be a transition day as
the upper level low slowly drifts to the east over the Northwest
CONUS. Temperatures across the western portions of the forecast
area will be in the 70s F with 80s F elsewhere. A cold front will
move across the region Saturday decreasing temperatures for Sunday
and Monday. Most locations will see high temperatures in the 60s
F. Temperatures will begin to rise Tuesday as the upper trough
moves to the east.

The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will put
Southeast Montana in southwest flow bringing persistent
precipitation chances. PWAT anomalies will also be 100-150% of
normal, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, greatest over the
southern mountains and nearby foothills will continue through the
afternoon, decreasing into the evening. Brief MVFR conditions are
possible with the heaver cells, including gusty winds to 35 kts
and small hail. Expect occasional mountain obscurations.
Widespread VFR will prevail on Wednesday with overall light winds.
STP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/087 057/089 060/085 058/082 051/065 045/069 049/077
    00/U    00/U    32/T    21/U    43/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 048/086 051/086 054/084 050/076 042/062 037/067 041/074
    10/U    01/U    43/T    33/T    55/T    33/T    23/T
HDN 051/087 056/091 058/088 058/084 052/068 044/070 048/078
    10/U    00/U    32/W    21/U    43/T    32/T    32/T
MLS 055/088 057/093 063/088 062/087 054/071 047/068 049/076
    10/U    10/U    52/W    21/U    43/W    32/W    33/T
4BQ 053/085 059/093 061/088 062/089 054/072 048/067 049/074
    20/U    00/U    21/U    10/U    21/B    32/T    33/T
BHK 052/086 054/092 059/086 058/085 054/072 046/067 047/073
    00/U    00/U    32/T    21/U    32/W    32/W    23/T
SHR 048/084 053/091 055/087 055/086 049/069 043/068 044/076
    20/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    23/T    43/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings