983
FXUS65 KBYZ 072154
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
254 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of very strong southwest to west winds expected along
  the western foothills Monday night through Tuesday morning.
  Gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely, and may exceed 70 mph in
  spots.

- Breezy to strong west to northwest winds across the plains on
  Tuesday. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph likely.

- Warmer than normal temperatures through Wednesday.

- Prolonged period of snowfall in the western mountains. Potential
  for multiple feet of snow through Wednesday, greatest on west
  aspects.

- Next shot of cold air is expected to arrive Wednesday night or
  Thursday, which may be accompanied by accumulating snowfall.
  Uncertainty remains high so please monitor the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through next Tuesday...

Tonight there will be a low chance (10-20%) for freezing rain for
many locations east of Billings. Temperatures will be coldest
this evening before warming overnight. Modeled soundings indicate
a warm nose above the surface with subfreezing surface
temperatures below. Road temperatures are also expected to fall
below freezing this evening and remain that way till early
tomorrow afternoon. These factors will combine to create a
favorable situation for freezing rain. The limiting factor will be
low precipitation chances (10-20%). Drivers should be aware of
the potential for slick roads in the morning.

The main impact over the next few days will be strong winds
across the region Monday night through Tuesday. There is high
confidence (80-95%) that locations along the foothills and western
gap areas will see winds exceed 50 mph. Wind gusts into the 70s
mph are likely (60-70%) for gap areas such as Livingston and Nye.
Locations such as Big Timber and Harlowton have a medium chance of
seeing wind gusts over 70 mph. Winds reaching high wind criteria
(58 mph) will be more difficult for lower elevation locations
from Billings and east. 850 mb winds will be in the 50-60 kt range
but these winds will have to overcome snow cover potentially
lowering lapse rates. Precipitation chances and cloud cover add
further uncertainty to the wind forecast. However, not much
mixing will be needed with 850 mb winds this strong. Thus a High
Wind Watch was added for these areas for Tuesday.

A clipper system will cross the international border into northeastern
Montana and North Dakota Tuesday bringing 30-50% precipitation
chances to southeast Montana. This will bring rain changing to a
rain snow mix for much of the region. Precipitation amounts are
expected to remain light with the lower elevations having a 20-30%
chance of getting greater than 0.1 inches and mountain areas
having a 50-80% chance. Torgerson


Wednesday through Saturday...

Behind the weather system that is forecast to bring widespread
strong winds to the area through Tuesday, a Pacific wave is progged
to push through the region on Wednesday, lifting a warm front
through the area. An ample flow of Pacific moisture (PWATs 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal)and energy from the wave will bring
periods of moderate to heavy snow to the western mountains through
Wednesday. Probability of exceeding a foot of snow around the
mountains of Cooke City from Tuesday through Wednesday is around 70-
100%, with the potential for 2 feet (30-70%). Much less snow is
forecast for north aspects of the Beartooth/Absarokas. Breezy winds
Periods of rain showers will affect the lower elevations with
temperatures mainly in the 30s and 40s, warmest over the west.

Heading into Wednesday night/Thursday, a Canadian cold front is
progged to drop into the region from the north bringing a return to
colder temperatures. While there remains much uncertainty with the
timing and strength of the cold front (how cold the temperatures
will be), ample moisture streaming in from the west and overrunning
the cold air at the surface will bring the potential for widespread
accumulating snow. Periods of snow (40-70% chance) are progged
through Friday, with temperatures currently forecast to range from
the 20s and 30s Thursday, to the single digits in the northeast to
30s over the southwest on Friday. The probability for snowfall of
4 inches or more Wednesday night through Friday is around 40-60%
for most areas. Saturday may be dry/warmer as ridging builds back
from the west. STP



.AVIATION...

Freezing rain will be a concern for locations east of Billings
(including KMLS and KBHK) starting around 01Z Sunday and lasting
through around 12Z. Winds will be strong along the western
foothills over the next 24 hours with gusts into the 40s to near
50 kts being common. Strongest winds expected tonight through 18Z
Monday. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/044 037/053 033/045 023/028 007/016 008/034 017/043
    10/N    13/R    58/O    66/S    54/S    32/S    11/B
LVM 033/046 039/050 033/050 030/037 018/038 028/048 031/049
    31/N    36/R    89/O    76/O    54/O    21/B    11/N
HDN 025/045 034/053 028/044 021/026 004/018 005/028 012/040
    21/B    25/R    59/O    86/S    65/S    32/S    11/B
MLS 022/041 032/048 024/038 013/020 902/009 000/021 006/033
    20/B    32/R    16/O    63/S    33/S    42/S    10/B
4BQ 026/044 032/052 028/041 020/026 003/013 005/029 014/038
    20/B    12/R    26/O    64/S    43/S    31/E    10/B
BHK 017/040 029/046 017/036 011/020 909/005 908/016 001/028
    20/N    32/R    14/S    62/S    22/S    42/S    10/B
SHR 022/046 029/054 025/044 023/032 006/023 008/038 018/046
    20/B    14/R    68/O    86/S    53/S    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from late Monday night through
      Tuesday afternoon FOR ZONES
      29>34-36-37-42-57-58-138-169-170-173-235.
     High Wind Watch in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday
      afternoon FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
      Monday FOR ZONES 65-66.
     High Wind Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through
      Tuesday morning FOR ZONES 65>68.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through
      Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONE 67.
WY...High Wind Watch in effect from late Monday night through
      Tuesday afternoon FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings