716
FXUS65 KBYZ 110552
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1052 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds along the foothills tonight and Tuesday; breezy
  over the eastern plains Tuesday.

- Much above normal temperatures through Thursday; a few daily
  record highs may be approached.

- Trending cooler (but not cold) and unsettled starting Friday,
  with much uncertainty in the forecast details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Frontal winds are pushing across lower elevations now and we are
seeing some gustiness east of the foothills. In fact, a recent
gust to 23 mph at Sheridan has pushed the temp up to 64F, after a
daytime high of 60F. Have adjusted winds accordingly, and raised
expected min temps tonight a bit. Pure gap flow has ended but mid
level winds are strong enough such that an occasional gust to 50
mph is possible...so will let the advisory continue for now. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...

Main theme through Thursday is warm conditions with occasional
wind.

Livingston already had a gust near 70 mph this morning with
a strong sea-level pressure gradient between eastern Idaho and
central MT. This SLP gradient will remain strong enough to
produce gusts over 50 mph near Livingston/Nye through this
evening. As surface cooling occurs after sunset, a temperature
inversion should develop and re-enhance the gap wind
flow/efficiency of the SLP gradient near Livingston. Then as the
night goes on, surface pressures will rise over central MT and the
SLP gradient will weaken, causing gap wind flow to weaken as
well. 700 mb winds will be turning more west/northwesterly with
speeds around 50 kt, which should favor Big Timber-Harlowton for
some gusts near or just over 50 mph (50% chance). Please use
caution if you will be traveling with a high- profile vehicle
through the western foothills. The strongest winds should subside
Tuesday morning, but breezy conditions will remain through the
rest of the day with gusts to about 35-40 mph in the western
foothills and in southeast MT closer to the Dakota border.

Wednesday should have the weakest wind speeds this week from 500
mb ridging, relatively light 700 mb winds around 25 kt and weak
SLP gradients.

On Thursday, 500 mb ridge will slide eastward into the Dakotas
with southwesterly flow moving into our area. Winds will become
breezy again over south central MT from increased winds aloft and
a strengthened SLP gradient. Strong wind gusts will likely develop
in the Livingston-Nye corridor Thursday evening with a 50% chance
of 50 mph gusts Thursday night. There is also a 20-50% chance of
lower elevation rain showers west of Yellowstone-Musselshell
Counties with snow showers above 8000 feet.

Friday, ensemble model solutions show much uncertainty in the
speed of a 500 mb trough moving eastward across the region. A
faster eastward progression would mean a cooler day and a slower
progression would mean a warmer day. There is a 20-60% chance of
lower elevation rain/snow showers and mountain snow showers but
any amounts should be light.

Saturday into Monday, overall 500 mb pattern should evolve from
ridging on Saturday to more troughing Sunday and Monday. The
details are uncertain with the amplitude and speed of the trough.
NBM shows about a 20-50% chance of precipitation late Sunday
night into Monday over south central MT, in the form of a
rain/snow mix in the lower elevations and snow in the mountains.

High temperatures will be warm through Thursday. Furthermore,
Thursday should be the warmest day of the week for many locations
with high temperatures well into the 60s, perhaps even a 70 degree
reading or so southeast of Billings. Then uncertainty increases
for Friday with NBM 10th to 90th percentile data showing that the
high temperature at Billings could be anywhere from 41F to 64F.
Using this same 10th to 90th percentile range, the high
temperature should be somewhere from the middle/upper 30s to
middle 50s Saturday through Monday. RMS

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Strong
winds will continue along the western foothills tonight with gusts
of 30-45 knots at KLVM, K6S0 & KHWQ. Post-frontal W-NW winds will
gust 20-35 knots across the region Tuesday. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/065 036/061 040/067 044/058 034/051 031/054 033/049
    10/N    00/B    00/B    13/W    21/B    01/B    23/W
LVM 044/061 036/063 040/065 041/052 030/048 030/052 031/047
    00/N    00/B    00/N    45/W    31/B    11/B    34/W
HDN 041/063 033/060 035/068 039/059 031/052 028/054 029/050
    10/U    00/B    00/U    14/W    41/B    01/B    23/W
MLS 042/059 029/056 032/065 037/060 032/052 028/053 029/050
    00/N    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 045/059 033/059 036/066 043/063 034/050 029/052 031/050
    00/N    00/B    00/U    01/B    31/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 038/055 026/055 032/065 037/061 030/049 024/049 026/047
    00/N    00/B    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    11/B
SHR 041/063 031/061 035/067 038/061 027/050 025/054 026/050
    10/U    00/B    00/U    03/W    42/W    01/U    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM MST Tuesday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings