227
FXUS65 KBYZ 070916
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
316 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...

Satellite imagery showed our region under a weak W/NW mid level
flow with high pressure dominating the SW CONUS. A stream of mid
level moisture extended from Nevada to NE Wyoming and SE Montana.

Today some energy tracking from Canada to the Dakotas will push a
weak cold front into our area. Look for light winds this morning
turning N/NW by midday. Expect 10-20 mph with some gust into the
20s to near 30 mph possible. Northerly winds will continue
through the rest of the day, turning N/NE by evening as they
decrease. This is generally a dry frontal passage, but upslope
and convergence into the foothills may produce isolated showers
over the foothills/mtns later today. Favorable jet dynamics may
also produce some light showers/sprinkles over our NE zones...from
Musselshell County eastward to northern Carter County in the
evening/early morning hours, but this should not be very
significant...and if it does develop, it should dissipate late
tonight.

Temps will turn a little cooler in the afternoon in all but the
very southern zones with readings from the lower 70s north to the
lower 80s in SE MT. Lows tonight will range from mid 40s to around
50 degrees.

We will be dry Saturday and not as breezy, but it will be cooler
with highs mainly 70-75 degrees.

Most of the river and stream levels have trended up the last few
days and are running high including the Clarks Fork at Edgar and
near Belfry. Forecasts suggest water rises leveling off. However,
residents near rivers should always be prepared this time of year
for at least minor flooding due to the seasonal snowmelt runoff.
Move equipment and livestock to higher terrain and keep kids away
from the river banks. There will be considerable debris in the
rivers which also make rafting risky. We will continue to monitor
these water levels sites going forward. BT


Saturday night through Friday...

SREF showed a NW flow over the forecast area Saturday night and
Sunday. Cold front will push S through the area Sat. night with
limited moisture. There will be just a slight chance of a shower
or thunderstorm over the NE Bighorns. SREF did not show any CAPE
Sat. night, but there was 30-40 kt Bulk Effective Shear. For
Sunday, SREF had a little CAPE with continued shear. Showers and
thunderstorms increase over the area from W to E Sun. afternoon
through Sun. night. Best chances will be W of KBIL at 30-40%.
Sunday will be cooler behind the front with highs mainly in the
60s.

There was not strong pattern agreement in the Clusters for Monday,
and Tuesday showed a progressive flow. Chances for precipitation
increase on Monday, especially over the SW mountains. NBM had a
30-40% chance of 0.25 in or higher over the SW 00Z Mon-00Z Tuesday
and a 21% chance at KLVM with 10-15% elsewhere. Noted the CWASP
had trended lower for Mon., suggesting storms will not be that
strong. Temps will be seasonable on Monday. Precipitation ends
Mon. night, and Tue. will be dry with highs in the lower to mid
80s. Most Clusters had upper ridging on Wednesday. There will be a
20% chance of precipitation over and near the mountains. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s. NBM had a 21% chance of KBIL
reaching 90 degrees, a 32% of KMLS reaching 90, and around a 40%
chance for KBHK and KSHR.

Westerly flow was progged over the region on Thursday, with an
upper trough approaching for Friday. Highs will be in the upper
70s to mid 80s each day. Next chance of precipitation (20-30%) was
Fri. afternoon. Noted that PWAT`s were forecast to increase to
0.75-1.00 inch in the E on Friday. So some storms could contain
heavy rainfall if this pattern trend continues in future model
runs. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the period. Look for surface winds
switching to the N/NW weak across the forecast area by 19Z with
local gusts to 25 kts possible. A few showers may develop over
the high country during the afternoon. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 052/074 049/069 048/074 054/084 058/085 056/082
    1/U 10/U    00/B    23/T    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 081 047/077 047/069 046/075 050/082 052/083 049/080
    1/U 10/U    01/B    45/T    21/U    12/T    11/U
HDN 078 050/075 049/070 046/075 052/085 056/086 055/084
    0/U 10/U    00/B    22/T    20/U    21/U    21/U
MLS 078 050/073 046/066 045/074 050/084 057/087 057/083
    0/U 10/B    00/B    22/W    10/U    11/U    20/U
4BQ 081 053/075 049/069 047/076 053/084 057/087 058/086
    0/B 00/B    11/B    12/W    20/U    11/U    21/U
BHK 078 045/072 042/064 042/072 048/081 054/085 054/083
    0/N 10/B    01/B    12/W    21/U    11/U    21/U
SHR 078 047/074 047/070 045/074 049/082 054/086 053/082
    1/N 10/U    11/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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