034
FXUS65 KBYZ 220740
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
140 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible for the weekend. A few storms
  may produce strong winds. Localized heavy rainfall a threat as
  well.

- Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional
  chance of precipitation.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...

An upper low approaching from the Pacific northwest will turn
upper level flow out of the southwest, allowing increased
moisture (PWATs 150-200% of normal) to enter the region. A weak
shortwave moving through the flow will provide enough energy for
showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance, highest over the
Absaroka/Beartooth mountains) with a few strong to severe storms
possible in the afternoon and evening over the west. The main
threat with any stronger storms will be wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Any storm will be capable of producing pockets of heavy rain.

Sunday into Monday, the upper low slides east along the Canadian
border and an associated cold front is expected to drop through
the area late Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance)
will move through again Sunday afternoon and evening. A few strong
to severe storms will again be possible, with strong wind gusts
and pockets of heavy rain as the main threats. Areas west of
Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns late
Sunday as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of
15-30 mph, and humidity will be down near 20 percent.

Behind the cold front, Monday will be mostly dry and a few degrees
cooler than Sunday. Upper level ridging then builds in by
Tuesday, but weak impulses and slightly above normal moisture
(PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will allow for a low daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end
of the work week.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Sunday will be
hotter, with highs generally in the 90s. Then, Monday and Tuesday
will be slightly cooler, with highs generally in the mid to upper
80s. Temperatures then warm slightly, with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s through Friday. Archer


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the day. Look for
relatively brisk east/northeast winds for many locations. By
18Z, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, spreading
east/northeast through the afternoon. Another round of showers
and storms will move into the western routes of south central MT
again this evening, again tracking east through the evening. Some
thunderstorms may briefly reduce visibility to under 5sm and
produce surface gusts to 45kts. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 065/095 063/087 061/087 062/091 063/091 061/088
    3/T 34/T    40/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    20/B
LVM 088 056/089 052/087 052/086 052/088 052/087 050/086
    4/T 44/T    20/U    01/U    22/T    41/U    21/U
HDN 094 064/096 061/088 057/089 057/093 059/093 058/090
    3/T 22/T    40/U    00/B    00/U    21/B    20/B
MLS 091 068/095 065/087 059/086 059/091 063/091 061/089
    1/B 31/B    40/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    21/U
4BQ 090 067/094 065/087 059/087 059/090 063/091 061/089
    1/B 31/B    30/U    10/U    01/U    21/B    20/B
BHK 088 060/092 059/088 053/086 051/089 056/090 055/089
    0/B 43/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    21/B
SHR 091 060/092 058/086 056/085 054/088 056/090 054/087
    3/T 34/T    21/U    13/T    11/U    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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