347
FXUS65 KBYZ 172119
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
319 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frontal passage this evening will bring scattered showers and
  breezy conditions, with a rain/snow mix into the foothills and
  light snow accumulations in the mountains.

- Wind gusts 30-45 mph this afternoon across eastern MT with
  gusts 40-50 mph for the western foothills through this evening.

- Breezy conditions for the western foothills expected again
  Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of another cold front.
  Lower elevation rain, mountain snow and wind Sunday into
  Monday.

- Conditions turn warmer and drier Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday...

A clipper system and associated cold front will drop through the
area this evening and night bringing showers to the lower
elevations, a rain/snow mix to the foothills, and light snow
accumulations for the mountains. Winds are expected to increase
along the western foothills ahead of the front, with gusty
northwest winds accompanying the front across the rest of the
area. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph are possible from Big Timber through
Harlowton, with 20-40 mph gusts elsewhere across the area.
Showers may bring brief reductions in visibility, and cannot rule
out a rumble of thunder or two, but confidence is low (less than
15%) to include at this time. Precipitation amounts will range
from a few hundredths over the north, to a tenth to a quarter over
the southern foothills, with up to a half inch over the
mountains. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches can be expected over
the mountains, greatest on north/northwest facing aspects.
Precipitation is expected to shift south of the area by mid-
morning Saturday.

Most of Saturday will be dry as shortwave ridging builds into the
area (highs in the 50s). Winds are expected to increase in the
western gap areas (Livingston and Nye) Saturday night into Sunday
morning, as surface pressure gradients tighten, and 700 mb winds
increase to 30-40 kts. Current probability of wind gusts exceeding
50 mph at Livingston and Nye is 80%, while 60 mph is 40%. Will
need to monitor for a potential wind advisory. A broad upper
trough is expected to move through the area Sunday into Monday
bringing showers to the lower elevations, snow to the mountains,
and more wind. The mountains and western foothills are favored
for precipitation, with about a 50-70% chance of at least a
quarter inch of liquid precipitation. About 4-6 inches is
forecast for the highest elevations of the Absaroka/Beartooths,
with a couple inches in the Bighorns. Westerly winds are expected
to spread across the area on Sunday, with widespread gusts of
20-35 mph. The western foothills could see wind gusts of 30-50
mph. As the trough slides east into the Dakotas and wraps up on
Monday, gusty northwest winds are expected to spread over eastern
MT. Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period looks to
be dry and slightly warmer with northwest flow transitioning to
ridging by the end of the week. Highs in the 60s are expected most
days. STP

.AVIATION...

Westerly winds are gusting 25 to 45 mph for much of the area, and 45
to 60 mph around KVLM. Expect winds to continue through late
afternoon. A cold front will move into the area between 22z (west)
and 03z (east) bringing a chance of showers with gusty northwest
winds this evening. Scattered MVFR conditions are expected with
shower activity through tonight. PM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/055 040/065 041/055 034/061 039/058 038/065 042/066
    61/U    04/W    42/W    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/B
LVM 028/053 036/059 032/051 028/061 031/059 033/064 036/066
    60/U    07/W    62/W    00/U    11/B    00/U    11/B
HDN 034/055 033/065 038/055 029/062 034/058 033/066 035/068
    91/U    04/W    63/W    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/B
MLS 036/053 033/062 038/052 029/061 036/058 034/066 037/068
    70/U    03/W    42/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 036/050 033/066 040/051 031/060 036/057 035/065 038/068
    81/U    01/B    52/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 032/051 029/064 036/051 026/060 033/058 031/064 036/069
    50/N    01/B    41/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 030/050 028/068 032/052 026/062 032/057 031/066 034/068
    83/W    01/B    74/W    00/U    01/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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