638
FXUS65 KBYZ 080547
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1047 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings wind, cooler temperatures, and the chance of
  precipitation to the region today into Saturday morning.

- Wind gusts in the 20s to 40s (mph) along and behind the front.
  Occasional gusts in the 50s (mph) over the foothills west of
  Billings and the hills of southeast Montana & northern Wyoming.

- Precipitation turning to snow in southeast Montana Saturday
  morning. While accumulations are expected to remain light,
  blowing snow may reduce visibility at times.

- Warmer temperatures return next week. Another windy system may
  impact the region Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to adjust for the latest model guidance on
the dynamic upper level low and Canadian cold front that will
cross the area tonight. Precipitation chances in the NBM and
amongst hi- res models has increased a bit with more of SE Montana
showing likely or better (60+ percent) precipitation chances.
Precipitation looks to start out as rain/snow mix for most areas
with temperatures already into the 30s in some locations, turning
to all snow around 3 or 4 in the morning. Overall the update
didn`t change snow accumulations too much, with the areas most
favored for an inch or more are the higher hills of Fallon,
Carter, and eastern Powder River counties. Most other areas of SE
Montana are looking at a dusting to under an inch by sunrise.
Bumped up wind gust potential overnight as the models are catching
on to stronger wind gusts currently wrapped up around the upper
low to the north and northwest of our area. The overnight
inversion will work to hold the strongest winds off the surface,
but precipitation will try and push winds down through the
inversion. Given that and hi- res models showing 50kts of wind
1500-2000ft off the surface it seems reasonable to expect a few
gusts close to 50 mph overnight into the sunrise hours for areas
east of Billings. The combination of gusty winds and snowfall will
bring reduced visibilities in blowing snow over SE Montana
through mid morning. Those with morning travel plans should be
prepared to take it slow until conditions improve late morning. At
this point, do not see a need for winter weather or wind
highlites but will keep a close eye on things overnight. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...

A weather system will bring wind, the chance of precipitation,
and cooler temperatures to the area today into Saturday.

As far as the winds go, the initial cold front is moving through
the area now, resulting in westerly wind gusts generally in the
20s to 40s (mph). A few locations over the hills west of Billings
have even seen gusts into the 50s (mph). While the front will exit
the area to the east this evening, windy conditions are expected
to continue through tonight into Saturday morning as the parent
low pressure system dives southeast through our area. With this,
wind gusts in the 20s to 40s (mph) look to continue, with
occasional gusts into the 50s (mph) mainly over the foothills west
of Billings this afternoon and evening (moderate to high chance,
greatest around Harlowton) and over the higher hills in
southeastern Montana and northern Wyoming tonight into early
Saturday morning (moderate to high chance). Look for these winds
to decrease from west to east through the morning Saturday as the
strong winds aloft exit our area.

As far as precipitation goes, there will generally be two rounds.
The first, associated with the cold front, is moving through the
area now. With this, all snow is falling in the mountains, with
rain over the lower elevations. While snow levels remain
relatively high, a few immediate foothill and valley locations are
seeing snow, but accumulations are little to none. As this first
round sinks south and east of the area this evening, there will be
a break in the precipitation. The parent low pressure system will
then bring the chance of precipitation back to eastern Montana
tonight through Saturday morning (20 to 50 percent chance). With
this, a rain/snow mix may initially occur in the river valleys,
but cold air advection is expected to allow precipitation to
switch over to all snow. With this, snow accumulations are
expected to remain light with an inch or less on grassy surfaces,
mainly over the higher hills. These snow showers combined with
wind may also lead to periods of reduced visibility, so those
traveling in eastern Montana Saturday morning should stay weather
aware. By Saturday afternoon and evening, the precipitation will
come to an end across the area.

Temperatures this weekend will be cooler with highs in the 30s to
50s, coldest in far eastern Montana. Saturday night looks to be
the coldest night with lows in the teens and 20s, again coldest in
far eastern Montana.

While upper level ridging will bring dry and warmer weather to
the region next week, a shortwave trough looks to temporarily
break down the ridge Tuesday. While the signal for precipitation
with the system is minimal, there is a decent wind signal,
especially over the wind prone foothill locations. By next
weekend, there are signs of another weather system, but a lot of
uncertainty remains at this point. Arends

.AVIATION...

Updated aviation discussion for 06z thoughts. Winds have
decreased this evening following a Pacific cold frontal passage
this afternoon, though a few gusts in the 25-35kt range continue
here and there. Around 2000ft AGL there is a layer of 40-55kt
winds out of the W-NW which may create wind shear at times through
the night, including all Terminals. A dynamic upper low will drop
through eastern areas overnight dragging a Canadian cold front
into the area. This system will bring areas of rain changing to
snow overnight with MVFR conditions from KMLS to KBHK, and local
IFR is possible due to combination of snow and strong wind gusts
blowing the snow around in Carter and Fallon counties, maybe as
far west as a Miles City to Broadus line. Wind gusts will be
strongest between midnight and 9 am over SE Montana with gusts in
the 30-45kt range out of the northwest as this dynamic system
quickly moves through the area. Expect winds to decrease into the
afternoon hours as the system moves quickly away from the area
tomorrow. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/050 026/051 037/063 042/064 034/057 037/063 042/063
    00/N    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    12/W
LVM 026/046 022/057 035/062 039/060 034/060 037/064 040/061
    00/U    00/B    00/E    00/N    00/B    01/B    24/W
HDN 033/050 022/051 029/066 039/064 031/055 032/063 036/063
    11/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    12/W
MLS 031/039 021/044 027/064 041/059 030/052 029/059 038/061
    43/S    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    11/B
4BQ 033/040 024/045 029/065 043/060 031/054 032/061 039/063
    43/S    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
BHK 024/035 013/038 022/059 035/056 027/050 026/056 033/058
    75/S    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 027/045 021/050 028/068 036/062 030/056 032/064 036/064
    00/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings