998
FXUS65 KBYZ 222311
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
411 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder & wetter system arrives Monday, lasts through Tuesday
  morning. Main impacts are rain/snow showers and gusty winds
  (25-50mph)

- Low to moderate confidence in Blizzard Conditions in eastern
  Montana, Monday night and Tuesday morning.

- Periods of light rain/snow possible Tuesday through Friday,
  with temps in the 30s to mid 40s (warmest near foothills).

- Confidence increasing for a Winter Storm to impact the region,
  Friday through next weekend; be prepared for wintry impacts to
  holiday travel, and monitor the forecast!

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Saturday...

Warm and dry conditions continue through Sunday, with high
temperatures in the 50sF.

The main story will be two potentially impactful storm systems
this week, with the first storm system arriving Monday.

Starting off with the first system, an upper trough and
associated cold front will drop through the Northern Rockies,
Monday into Tuesday. Uncertainty remains on the track of the
trough and the extent of precipitation. There is high confidence
in gusty conditions across the region, with winds gusting 25 to 50
mph. The strongest winds are initially forecast along the
foothills west of Billings through Monday night. The next period
of strongest winds are forecast in the east along the Dakotas
borders, Tuesday morning.

The precipitation forecast remains uncertain, though the current
forecast has precipitation beginning in the west and spreading
east with the cold front. Precipitation looks to continue through
Tuesday morning, decreasing from west to east. With temperatures
above freezing ahead of the front Monday, expect initial precip to
fall as rain, becoming a rain/snow mix, and then all snow. The
greatest chance for notable snow accumulations exists in the
mountains and the eastern zones. The chance for an inch of snow
across the central plains is low, generally less than 15%. In
Custer, Carter, Fallon, and Powder River Counties, the current
forecast shows 1-4 inches of snowfall with locally higher amounts
possible. While this much snow is depicted in the forecast, the
aforementioned strong winds will surely limit true accumulations.

As the upper trough moves east, uncertainty continues in the
evolution of the system. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to show
the trough beginning to close off as an upper low over the eastern
Dakotas. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the trough and potential low
development further west along the Montana and Dakotas borders.
There is a large variation in the implications of what this system
does, especially for eastern Montana where the combination of
strong winds and falling snow may create Blizzard conditions.
Based on the current forecast, there is low to moderate confidence
for Blizzard conditions in the aforementioned counties.

Northwest flow with a building surface high will fill into the
region, late Tuesday into Thursday. With this pattern, colder air
is shown by models northeast of the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains,
with temperatures in the low to mid 30sF and east/northeast
surface flow. Over the mountains, southwest flow and warmer
temperatures in eastern ID will downslope into the immediate
foothills, bringing temperatures into the upper 30s and 40s. The
chance for precipitation during this period is low across the
plains, while light snow showers remain possible (15-40%) in the
mountains going into the weekend.

Another potentially impactful system is shown by ensembles Friday
through the weekend. Uncertainty remains on specifics, but there
is high confidence in much colder and snowier conditions. Once
again, the extent of precipitation accumulations and duration are
less clear, though the current forecast has precip beginning
Friday and increasing through Saturday and Sunday. The latest
forecast has snow accumulations of several inches across much of
the area, with greater amounts in the mountains and foothills.
Another impact of this system will be the colder temperatures,
with highs falling into the 20s and overnight lows in the teens
Friday night and single digits Saturday night.

With everything mentioned, continue to monitor the forecast and
prepare for wintry conditions through the Holiday Week. Matos

.AVIATION...

Gusty southwest winds will continue at KLVM into Sunday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into Sunday. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/056 036/046 025/039 023/040 028/045 027/038 018/026
    00/U    04/W    20/B    01/E    23/W    22/W    46/J
LVM 032/056 033/041 018/036 020/042 029/047 028/041 017/029
    00/U    06/W    20/B    12/J    33/W    23/W    56/J
HDN 028/056 031/049 023/038 019/040 024/043 023/039 016/026
    00/U    06/W    41/B    01/E    23/W    33/W    46/J
MLS 031/056 032/048 022/034 016/035 020/034 020/032 016/024
    00/U    02/W    41/N    00/B    12/J    21/E    34/J
4BQ 030/056 032/049 023/033 018/036 022/038 023/036 018/026
    00/U    01/E    41/N    00/B    11/E    21/E    24/J
BHK 029/055 030/047 019/032 011/035 014/035 015/032 012/026
    00/U    01/E    52/J    00/B    11/E    21/E    23/J
SHR 028/057 028/050 017/035 014/039 021/045 022/042 016/028
    00/U    03/W    51/B    00/B    12/W    22/W    36/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings