463
FXUS65 KBYZ 141749
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1049 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temps continue today; a few daily record highs may be
  threatened.

- Strong winds along the western foothills through early evening;
  impacts to travel on I-90 through Livingston.

- Weak Pacific system brings scattered showers today and tonight
  at lower elevations: several inches of snow possible in high
  country; temps are cooler but warmer than normal through the
  weekend.

- There is potential for a cooler and wetter weather system during
  the first half of next week, but uncertainty exists at this
  time.

&&

Updated Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

Current analysis shows the ridge axis sliding east to the Dakotas
with mid level flow backing to the southwest. We should see
increasing mid/upper level clouds spreading across the region
today, but downslope flow should help keep us well above normal
temps with highs mainly in the 60s to around 70 in the east. A
Pacific front moves into our western zones by afternoon so highs
may only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in that section. Cross
sections indicate a good deal of mid level moisture in the
mountains by midday with orographic snow over the west facing
slopes developing this morning and continuing throughout the day.
Snow levels should remain above 8500 ft where several inches (4-8
ins) may accumulate before it tapers off this evening. Strong
southwest winds will continue to impact the Livingston I-90
corridor through the day, but as the front moves through winds may
turn more westerly, thus making gap flow less likely. So peak
winds from 55-65 mph are more likely through about 9 AM this
morning, backing off to 40-50 mph thereafter. Westerly winds from
35-45 mph should also develop with the frontal passage over the
western zones today, particularly the US-191 corridor from Big
timber to Harlowton. We are also currently seeing strong winds in
the Sheridan vicinity in these early mornings hours with analysis
showing a weak mountain wave signature over the Big Horns. So look
for local 25-40 mph gusts around Sheridan possible this morning.

Favorable jet dynamics and an associated relative vorticity max
are progged over our southeast sections this evening. Some models
have trended toward some light showers under this through the
evening. We have increased POPs for this up to 40% with a few
hundredths of precipitation possible, a few local spots may see
up to a tenth of an inch.

500 mb heights will build over the region Saturday, but NW flow
may keep some clouds and even virga or isolated sprinkles over
our east. Look for increasing clouds again Sunday as flow
switches to the southwest. The mountains could see some isolated
rain/snow showers develop late Sunday as a trough approaches from
the southwest. Highs this weekend will be mainly in the 50s with
lows in the 30s.

Sunday night through Monday night...

A slow moving upper trough will track across the Great Basin of
Nevada and across Wyoming for the latter part of the weekend and
into Monday. Models generally push some moisture up from the
south into our forecast area with deep upslope possibly developing
over the area Monday which could produce areas of rain and
mtn snow. However, ensembles still vary with how the surface low
develops, so there remains a good deal of uncertainty how this
turns out. The system generally tracks east by Monday night into
Tuesday diminishing the threat of precip. Highs Monday could
range from near 40 to around 50 degrees depending on the track of
the system.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Models generally show a split flow across N.A. with a large trough
across the desert SW that slowly slides east. However this
evolves, it should lead to at least unsettled conditions over our
region with periods of rain/snow showers possible and seasonal
highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees. BT

.AVIATION...

18z discussion...Mountain Wave activity continues this afternoon
along and east of area mountains with occasional sudden gusts of
25 to 40kts possible. Several UUA PIREPS attest to this activity
being present. Away from the mountains mixed winds will bring
gusts of 20 to 40kts out of the west. Low level wind shear is in
the forecast at times into this evening for KBIL/KSHR, and
mountain wave turbulence can be expected near KLVM and KSHR. A
weak cold front moves into the area late afternoon/early evening
diminishing winds and turning them to the northwest. Isolated to
scattered showers will accompany the front through the area.
Shower activity should be limited to a few hours around fropa for
the lower elevations, but may continue into the late night hours
for mountain and foothills locations. Any precipitation will be
very light so no flight category reductions anticipated. Around
sunrise a low stratus deck may work into the KMLS and KBHK
vicinities (~2kft agl). At this time keeping this deck scattered.
Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 040/062 037/055 037/050 036/048 033/044 029/043
    1/N 20/B    00/B    23/W    33/W    33/W    11/B
LVM 060 039/060 034/055 036/052 034/050 030/045 025/044
    4/W 20/B    01/E    33/W    44/W    43/W    22/W
HDN 069 039/062 034/057 035/050 033/049 030/045 026/044
    2/W 30/B    00/B    34/W    44/W    44/W    21/B
MLS 065 034/057 032/056 036/045 033/047 029/044 027/042
    2/E 20/B    00/B    13/W    32/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 068 039/059 034/057 037/046 034/048 030/045 027/042
    2/E 30/B    00/B    14/W    21/B    22/W    21/B
BHK 066 033/053 030/053 031/043 027/044 027/042 023/042
    2/B 30/B    00/B    13/W    31/E    22/W    21/B
SHR 068 034/060 032/057 034/049 031/050 028/044 023/042
    1/E 20/U    00/B    35/W    33/W    34/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM MST this evening FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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