025
FXUS65 KBYZ 101408
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
808 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke keeps skies hazy for the foreseeable future, and
  will occasionally reduce air quality. For the latest air quality
  visit airnow.gov.

- Slight chance of late day thunderstorms in far southeast Montana
  today and Tuesday.

- Cooler with a good chance (30-70%) of showers and thunderstorms
  across the area Wednesday through Friday. Storms may produce
  heavy rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Dry conditions exist underneath high heights aloft, but there is
an area of ACCAS over Rosebud to Treasure Counties drifting
eastward (a bit further north but not unlike yesterday morning).
Skies are clear otherwise, and hazy due to wildfire smoke. Cannot
rule out an isolated t-storms late today in the far southeast
corner of MT, courtesy of elevated moisture and low level
convergence in this area. In fact, Baker airport is reporting a
300ft ceiling at 8am with a dewpt of 61F. May also need to
consider fog potential in our far east tonight as low level
easterly flow persists. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Next 7 days (Through next Sunday)...

First thing, wildfire smoke will likely continue to impact our
region for the foreseeable future, keeping skies quite hazy, with
reduced surface visibilities and poor air quality at times.

Satellite imagery shows the relatively stagnant upper flow
pattern over the western and central CONUS, with a dome of high
pressure centered over the southern Rockies and relatively flat
westerly flow over our area. Monsoon moisture continues to be
suppressed to the south of our CWA. However, the pattern generally
keeps low level flow easterly. Models continue to indicate low
level moisture advection from the plains into our region this
week. Some decent moisture will reside along the Dakota borders
through Tuesday with a slight chance of thunderstorms in our
southeast. Then by Wednesday, ensembles agree PWATs will be
trending upward quite a bit as that easterly flow is able to tap
deep moisture from the Great Plains. PWATs over an inch are
progged as far west as Billings by late Wednesday. A trough
dropping into the Pacific NW at midweek will gradually shift our
mid level flow to the southwest opening the door to Pacific and
monsoonal moisture along with related impulses. Thus, our PoPs
jump up to 30-70% across the region by Wednesday evening and
continues through the end of the week. Storms should be capable
of locally heavy rainfall due to the anomalously high PWATs for
this time of year.

Timing of waves and periods of ascent/subsidence into late week
are difficult to determine now, but generally speaking ensembles
suggest moisture will remain elevated and the risk of t-storms
will continue into the weekend.

Temperatures will transition from above normal early this week to
below normal at the end. Look for upper 80s to mid 90s Monday and
Tuesday, followed by 80s Wednesday, then 70s to lower 80s
Thursday through the weekend. BT

.AVIATION...

Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region, reducing slant
range visibility and occasionally surface visibility to MVFR
(generally 4SM or 5SM). Surface visibility reductions are most
likely over south-central and western Montana and northern
Wyoming. KLVM is the most likely terminal to experience reductions
below 6SM. LA/PM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 063/093 063/084 059/075 056/073 055/076 055/082
    0/K 00/K    01/B    76/T    85/T    54/T    52/W
LVM 092 050/092 054/085 050/075 047/073 045/076 045/081
    0/K 00/K    01/B    56/T    87/T    66/T    54/T
HDN 093 059/093 060/086 056/078 052/075 050/077 050/083
    0/K 00/K    02/T    67/T    74/T    44/T    42/W
MLS 091 062/093 061/083 057/076 054/075 052/076 053/081
    0/K 00/K    14/T    57/T    86/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 094 062/094 063/084 058/075 056/075 054/076 054/080
    0/K 00/K    07/T    67/T    86/T    54/T    43/T
BHK 090 058/093 055/082 050/074 048/073 047/075 047/079
    1/K 12/K    25/T    66/T    87/T    43/W    33/T
SHR 093 056/092 058/085 054/076 052/073 049/074 049/079
    0/K 00/K    03/T    78/T    88/T    67/T    54/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings