807
FXUS65 KBYZ 110845
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
145 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warm today.

- Much above normal temperatures continue through Thursday; a few
  daily record highs may be approached on Thursday.

- Turning cooler (but not cold) and unsettled Friday and Saturday,
  with much uncertainty in the forecast details.

- After a dry Sunday, next potential weather system arrives
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through next Monday...

Satellite imagery shows a dry WNW flow aloft associated with a
broad ridge over the PacNW and northern Rockies. A weak shortwave
has pushed thru southeast MT and we are seeing gradual pressure
rises behind a "cold" front ("cold" is relative here as the air
mass is still quite warm...in fact, Sheridan reached 67F just
before 06z with frontal mixing). Despite a IDA-LWT pressure
gradient of 12mb at 08z, the gap flow has ended with the onset of
cold advection. Current gusts in the Livingston area are 30mph or
less. Mid level winds are strong enough to support a few 40-50 mph
gusts between now and 15z, but have cancelled the Wind Advisory
for Livingston and Nye. Big Timber & Harlowton will see increasing
gusts with the chance of reaching 50 mph at ~40%. Mid level winds
decrease steadily after 15z and mixed W-NW winds across the lower
elevations will be breezy but limited at 25-35 mph today. Despite
us being post-frontal today, temps will remain quite mild with
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. No daily records at risk today.

Expect dry and warm conditions to continue Wednesday and Thursday
underneath strong upper level ridging. The ridge axis shifts east
Thursday and this will allow for additional downslope warming...so
after upper 50s to mid 60s tomorrow, we should see highs in the
60s to near 70F Thursday. A few daily records could be challenged
on Thursday the 13th, including the following:
SITE        FCST   RECORD
Billings     67   69 (1934)
Miles City   65   66 (1942)

Ridge breaks down Friday as a Pacific trof moves inland, but curb
your enthusiasm as the trof splits, downslope flow persists and
temps remain warmer than normal thru the weekend. Nonetheless,
there should be a short period of mountain snow and some light
rain/snow showers at lower elevations Friday-Friday night (there
is model spread in the timing of this trof and cold front). There
is a 45% chance of 2+ inches of snow over the mountains. Lower
elevation precip will be minimal at best (less than 0.05"). As for
temps, Friday is a transition day...with highs in the mid 50s
west to mid 60s east.

This weekend, model consensus shows another period of ridging and
dry conditions. Look for highs mostly 50s Saturday & Sunday.

Next Pacific trof arrives in some fashion next Monday, and must
continue to stress uncertainty as there will be complex
interactions upstream in the north Pacific regarding what will be
former Typhoon Fung-Wong (currently near Taiwan). Ensembles show a
great deal of spread with regard to temps and precip chances next
Monday/Tuesday, but cannot deny that operational models have
trended a bit less dynamic with a splitting trof. Cluster analyses
show a range of potential solutions but overall confidence in
below normal heights. For now, we are looking at a 20-30% chance
of precip (rain/snow) and cooler temps by Monday or Tuesday. Stay
tuned.

JKL

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Locations
such as K6S0, KLVM, and K3HT will see wind gusts into the 30s kts.
Around 18Z, winds gusting into the 20s kts will spread over the
entire forecast area. Winds become light across the region after
00z Wednesday. Matos/Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 038/062 041/067 045/062 039/055 033/055 034/051
    0/N 00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B    00/B    22/W
LVM 061 037/063 039/066 042/055 035/052 031/055 031/048
    0/N 00/B    00/N    35/W    31/B    01/B    34/W
HDN 063 033/061 035/069 040/064 036/055 029/056 029/052
    0/U 00/B    00/U    02/W    31/B    00/U    22/W
MLS 059 031/057 033/065 037/063 036/054 029/055 031/050
    0/N 00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 059 033/061 036/066 042/065 036/054 032/055 033/051
    0/N 00/B    00/U    01/B    31/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 055 026/057 032/065 037/063 032/052 025/053 027/049
    0/N 00/B    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    11/B
SHR 063 030/062 034/069 038/066 031/052 027/055 027/051
    0/U 00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    00/U    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings