434
FXUS65 KBYZ 020214
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
714 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty crosswinds over the foothills west of Billings through Tuesday
  morning, strongest around Livingston to Nye this evening.
  Crosswinds may impact portions of I-90 and US-191.

- Weather system brings precipitation (rain/snow) back to the area
  tonight through early Wednesday. Light snow accumulations
  expected over the higher hills of southeast MT with several
  inches of snow down into the southern mountains and foothills.

- Unsettled conditions continue Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Deepening lee side trof ahead of a clipper system dropping through
BC is resulting in fairly strong wind gusts along the western
foothills this evening. In fact, Livingston and Nye just recently
reported gusts near 60 mph. Pressures in central MT are falling
~1mb/hr and the 02z IDA-LWT gradient is up to 13mb. All
indications are that the gradient will tighten a bit more over the
next few hours, with mid level winds around 40 knots. Stability
doesn`t appear to be ideal, but ingredients should be sufficient
for advisory level gusts thru the evening, before a trend down
overnight as pressures begin to rise with a cold front`s arrival.
Have issued a Wind Advisory for the Livingston Area and Beartooth
Foothills through 12z Tuesday. Otherwise, as the aforementioned
system approaches the chance of light snow over the western
mountains and lower elevations east of Billings will increase
through the night. Starting to see weak echoes on BLX radar in
northern Rosebud County. Areas from the Bull Mountains eastward
across our northeastern zones should see a little snow
accumulation before daybreak and this is something to keep an eye
on. In the meantime, have made a few pop/wx/wind adjustments based
on current trends. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Sunday...

Heights building in from the west and a klondike chinook have
allowed temperatures to warm into the 20s and 30s today, with
breezy winds for areas west of Billings. Winds have gusted in the
40 to 55 mph range at times, and the gusty winds are expected to
continue into the evening and night, strongest over the western
foothills. Winds will begin to decrease into Tuesday morning as
the next weather system drops into the region. Where wind gusts
are greatest, localized blowing snow remains a low threat.

An initial shortwave will track south and east through the area
late tonight into Tuesday, bringing some light snow to the western
mountains, but also a band of precipitation for areas mainly north
and east of Billings. South-central Montana (including Billings)
will be affected by downsloping, with less precipitation
potential. By later Tuesday into Tuesday night, a cold front from
the main splitting trough looks to turn winds more out of the
north than northwest, allowing the second wave of precipitation to
push south into the mountains and foothills of southern Montana
and northern Wyoming where upslope enhancement looks to be in
place. Unstable northerly flow (lapse rates greater than 7 degrees
C/km) and frontogenesis pushing into the southern mountains will
allow for a period of decent snowfall Tuesday evening. While
precipitation may linger into Wednesday morning, downslope winds
look to regain control by mid- day, ending any remain
precipitation over the area.

With temperatures expected to climb into the 30s on Tuesday,
precipitation may become a rain/snow mix over the lower
elevations/valleys, while the higher hills remain a wet snow. As
the cold air works in from the north by Tuesday evening, expect
all precipitation to change over to snow. Snowfall amounts are
expected to range from a dusting, up to a few inches over the
highest hills in southeast MT, to several inches of snow into the
southern foothills and mountains. Greatest totals will be found
over the northerly upslope areas of the Beartooth/Absaroka and
Pryor/Bighorn mountains where 5 to 10 inches are possible. Breezy
northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph will produce some blowing snow as
well, which could further reduce visibility. Any wet or slushy
surfaces will likely freeze Tuesday evening as the colder air
works in (lows Tuesday night in the single digits to teens). Have
gone ahead and issued winter weather advisories for portions of
the southern foothills, into southeast MT, as well as the northern
Bighorns/Pryors starting tomorrow, and continuing into Wednesday
morning.

Dry but cooler conditions will prevail for Wednesday, with highs
into the teens to 30s, lowest over the east. The rest of the
forecast looks to remain unsettled with periods of precipitation
and wind. Temperatures will oscillate back and forth from above,
to near, to below normal at times (20s to 40s). While uncertainty
remains in timing and placement of precipitation, there is
moderate to high chances (40-70%) Thursday through Saturday. Stay
up to date with the forecast if you have outdoor or travel plans
later this week. STP

.AVIATION...

SW-W winds will remain strong along the western foothills through
the night. Expect gusts of 40-50 knots at KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ,
strongest at KLVM. A cold front`a arrival early Tuesday will
reduce winds along the western foothills but cause breezy W-NW to
spread across the lower elevations tomorrow, with gusts up to 25
knots.

Other than wind, a system dropping out of the NW will bring
increasing chances of snow to the region tonight through Tuesday.
Expect reductions to MVFR-IFR east of Billings initially (late
tonight into early Tuesday), then locations further west and south
tomorrow as winds shift to the NW. Mountains will become obscured
by late evening and continue to be obscured through tomorrow. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/037 017/030 019/036 026/038 022/034 018/039 026/041
    26/O    61/B    00/B    23/S    54/S    20/B    10/B
LVM 030/037 018/036 021/039 026/042 027/040 025/042 027/044
    46/S    51/B    01/B    45/O    65/O    21/B    21/N
HDN 022/037 014/029 012/038 023/039 018/034 013/039 023/041
    47/O    81/B    01/B    44/O    66/O    41/B    11/B
MLS 021/036 009/019 011/034 024/034 013/026 008/034 023/037
    37/O    41/B    00/B    42/S    63/S    30/B    10/B
4BQ 021/036 013/022 015/036 023/037 019/033 016/036 026/039
    28/O    71/E    00/B    32/S    43/S    30/B    10/B
BHK 014/034 000/017 005/033 019/032 009/025 004/031 018/036
    24/S    30/B    00/B    32/S    53/S    30/B    10/B
SHR 019/038 015/030 011/039 019/040 019/036 016/042 021/043
    27/O    82/S    00/B    33/O    55/O    40/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM
      MST Wednesday FOR ZONES 36-37-57-58-138.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM
      MST Wednesday FOR ZONES 56-66-169.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM
      MST Wednesday FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM
      MST Wednesday FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings