320
FXUS65 KBYZ 032009
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
209 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Another cold front arrives Thursday bringing stronger northwest
  to north winds, gusting 30-45 mph (strongest east of Billings).

- A more significant surge of Canadian wildfire smoke is possible
  with Thursday`s front; be prepared for reduced visibility and
  poor air quality late Wednesday night and Thursday.

- Seasonably cool Thursday night to Saturday; frost possible in
  eastern sheltered valleys Friday night.

- Warmer with increasing chances of precip this weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday Night...

Clipper system moves into the northern plains Thursday bringing
cooler temperatures, strong winds, and wildfire smoke. Cold front
starts to move into the region Thursday morning keeping high
temperatures down. High temperatures will range from the low 70s
F near the Dakotas border to high 70s F in the western forecast
area. Low temperatures Friday morning will be cool with most
locations in the low to mid 40s and many locations in the 30s F. A
frost (<= 36 F) is unlikely (< 30%). This front will not bring
precipitation chances keeping the region dry through Thursday
night.

Models are indicating a good smoke push with this cold front after
06Z Thursday lasting through around 21Z. This smoke push is
expected to bring heavier smoke concentrations than what is
currently over the region. Reductions to air quality and
visibility are likely.

Winds begin to increase Thursday morning as 700 mb winds of 50 kts
east of Billings and steep lapse rates create strong winds. Most
of Southeast Montana will see winds greater than 30 mph with some
locations near the Dakotas border seeing winds approach 50 mph.
Torgerson

Friday through Tuesday...

Friday will be a cool and dry post-frontal day with highs in the
60s and 70s. Friday night into Saturday morning, temperatures look
to drop into the 30s and 40s across the area, coolest in far
eastern Montana where there is a 20 to 30 percent chance of seeing
a frost. As far as seeing a freeze goes in far eastern Montana,
probabilities remain low (less than 10 percent).

Saturday into Sunday will see heights gradually rise as low
amplitude ridging builds over the region. This will allow
temperatures to gradually warm back near normal by Sunday (highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s). While Saturday looks to be a
mostly dry day outside of a slight chance of a weak shower or
thunderstorm over the mountains of south-central Montana. Sunday
will see a bit better chance for a weak shower or thunderstorm
over the mountains and foothills (25 to 65 percent chance) as
increased atmospheric moisture combines with weak energy aloft.
While a few showers or thunderstorms could move out over the
plains towards Billings, instability looks to drop quickly off the
mountains, limiting the activity over the plains. With this
activity on Sunday, precipitation amounts look to remain generally
light with the best chance of a wetting rain (0.10 inches) being
25 to 50 percent over the mountains and foothills of south-
central Montana.

As we move into next week, a broad trough looks to move over the
west coast of the United States. This will allow winds aloft to
back out of the southwest over our region which will introduce a
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the
region, best chances closer to mid-week. While there is no strong
signal for severe weather at this time, increased instability
mostly in eastern Montana Tuesday into mid-week may allow for a
few more robust thunderstorms to develop. Will have to see how
things trend. Temperatures during this time look to remain
seasonal. Arends/PM

&&

.AVIATION...

Visibility reductions due to smoke are likely to continue this
evening. Another push of more dense wildfire smoke looks to move
into the region early Thursday. This secondary push has a much
better chance of reducing surface visibility below 6SM, possibly
to IFR. Strong winds will affect Southeast Montana during the day
Thursday with most locations gusting over 30 mph and locations
near the Dakotas border gusting near 50 mph. JKL/Torgerson


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/077 045/071 043/077 047/084 057/084 056/084 056/081
    01/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/W    12/W    22/W
LVM 053/079 040/073 040/079 047/082 049/080 048/079 047/075
    01/H    00/U    00/U    13/T    33/T    34/T    34/T
HDN 054/076 040/070 038/078 043/083 053/084 053/087 054/084
    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    22/W
MLS 054/073 042/067 038/070 044/082 053/085 055/087 059/084
    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    21/B
4BQ 054/073 043/065 038/069 046/081 055/083 056/085 059/083
    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 048/071 038/063 034/067 039/078 048/083 050/083 053/081
    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 054/077 039/068 037/074 043/082 050/081 050/083 051/081
    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    12/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings