028
FXUS65 KBYZ 160928
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
328 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cool, wet, and breezy conditions will continue
  today. Precipitation will decrease from west to east into this
  afternoon.

- Seasonal temperatures return Thursday and Friday becoming above
  normal for the weekend. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
  and evening thunderstorms are possible each day.

- Early next week is trending cooler and unsettled with another storm
  system working into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday night...

Showers and areas of light rain/drizzle, along with a few
thunderstorms were ongoing over the area this morning as an upper
trough was situated over the region. Observations and web cameras
showed reductions in visibility due to fog as well. Precipitation
has become more widespread recently as the trough axis moves
overhead. Precipitation is expected to be heaviest through this
morning, decreasing from west to east into this afternoon as the
trough and an associated jet max slides east. Additional
precipitation totals will range from just a few hundredths over
the west, to another half inch or more over southeast MT.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool today with highs in the
upper 50s to 60s, coolest over the southeast. Still looking at
the potential for record cold high temperatures this afternoon at
all climate sites (Billings record is 67). Those with recreation
plans in the high country should be prepared for cold wet
conditions.

As we head into this evening and the upper trough slides east of
the region allowing for clearing, fog is expected to develop over
most of the area overnight into Thursday morning. Low temperatures
are forecast to be in the 40s to around 50 degrees tonight. Mainly
dry conditions can be expected during the day Thursday with
shortwave ridging over the area. A shortwave dropping south and
east out of Canada into northeast MT will bring isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance) to far eastern
areas Thursday night. STP

Friday through Wednesday...

The long term will feature a building blocking pattern in the Gulf
of Alaska. This will allow many upper level waves to move through
the region. Persistent daily precipitation chances (20-30%) are
expected. Southeasterly winds over the plains throughout the
period looks to bring persistent PWAT values above normal. Long
term convective indicators also show the potential for daily
thunderstorms chances. It is too early at this time to determine
convective risks levels. Overall, seasonal conditions are
expected over the long term with no large events forecast.

Temperatures Friday are expected to be in the 80s F. Shortwave
ridging Saturday and Sunday will increase temperatures into the
mid 80s to mid 90s F. Temperatures are expected to decrease early
next week due to increased troughing. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to continue today, with precipitation ending from west to
east through the afternoon hours. Mountain obscurations can be
expected. Patchy to areas of fog will impact the area through the
morning, contributing to reductions in flight conditions. Expect
MVFR to IFR conditions at all sites into the morning, with
gradually improving conditions this afternoon. Patchy to areas of
fog are expected to develop tonight bringing vsby reductions. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 050/084 060/085 061/092 062/091 061/088 060/085
    5/W 01/U    11/U    21/U    11/B    11/B    22/T
LVM 068 046/088 050/087 052/090 052/088 051/086 050/085
    2/T 01/U    11/U    11/U    11/B    11/B    22/T
HDN 067 049/085 057/086 060/092 058/091 058/089 058/085
    6/W 00/U    20/U    21/U    21/U    21/B    21/B
MLS 066 050/083 057/085 061/090 063/091 062/088 061/085
    6/W 01/B    20/U    11/U    31/U    21/B    22/T
4BQ 062 051/081 058/084 062/087 063/090 062/087 061/087
    8/T 00/B    30/U    21/U    21/U    21/U    21/U
BHK 062 045/074 051/081 055/083 058/086 057/084 056/083
    8/W 01/B    30/U    12/T    32/T    22/W    22/T
SHR 064 045/085 054/085 055/090 055/091 054/087 055/087
    8/T 00/U    11/U    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings