026
FXUS65 KBYZ 180723
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
123 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of flash flooding over the
  Absaroka/Beartooths today.

- Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through next week with
  high temperatures mainly 90s, warmest this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...

Ridging continues over the area on today, with the greatest
monsoonal moisture mainly over the mountains and areas south.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon and evening hours as another weak impulse
lifts through the region. The latest Storm Predicition Center
Outlook has much of southern Montana and northern Wyoming in a
general thunderstorm outlook. For central Montana, there is a
Marginal Risk (1/5) for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.
Ingredients do not look spectacular but a few storms will be
capable of producing very heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and
hail.

An Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains over Absaroka/Beartooth
mountains today with a Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding. Several
thunderstorms have produced locally very heavy rainfall in the
mountains over the past few days. Because of this, flash flood
thresholds may be lower so remain vigilant if you have recreation
plans this weekend.

A weak upper low sliding east through southern Canada flattens
the ridging even more for Sunday and Monday, with a weak front
moving through the area on Sunday and a backdoor front for Monday.
Convection looks to be confined mainly to the higher terrain
these days.

Ensembles remain in good agreement heading towards the middle of
next week in a return of ridging to the region, as well as an
increase in monsoonal moisture. This will keep a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, with near to slightly
above normal temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to range
from the upper 80s to 90s most days, with some locations
approaching 100 degrees over the east on Saturday and Sunday.

STP/PM

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the area through the night...especially across the east
potentially impacting KMLS/KBHK/KEKA. Locally heavy rain will
reduce visibility to MVFR/IFR. Today will then see another round
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and evening. Best chance of thunderstorms will be across
the MT/WY border including KSHR after 21Z. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 068/097 066/091 065/091 066/093 067/093 067/094
    0/U 22/T    20/U    11/B    11/B    33/T    32/T
LVM 094 057/095 057/092 056/090 058/092 057/089 057/091
    0/U 22/T    00/U    11/B    34/T    55/T    44/T
HDN 096 065/097 064/092 062/092 064/094 064/094 064/095
    0/U 11/U    30/U    10/B    11/B    23/T    31/U
MLS 097 068/098 066/091 062/088 065/094 066/094 067/097
    2/T 10/U    20/U    11/B    11/B    12/W    11/U
4BQ 097 068/098 067/091 062/088 065/092 065/092 066/093
    2/T 20/U    30/U    10/B    21/B    22/W    22/T
BHK 093 065/098 062/090 057/086 059/091 060/091 062/095
    2/T 21/U    20/N    00/B    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 092 062/094 061/092 058/091 060/091 060/090 059/089
    3/T 32/T    20/U    02/T    24/T    46/T    44/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings