070
FXUS65 KBYZ 072053
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
253 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer into Friday. Periods of breezy conditions.

- Weather system likely bringing cooler temperatures, increased
  precipitation chances, and windier conditions to the region by
  Sunday into early next week.

- Precipitation expected to fall as snow over the mountains.
  Chance of 6 or more inches of snow is currently 20 to 40
  percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...

Warm and dry weather will continue through the work-week with
upper level ridging generally in place. Through this time, look
for high temperatures to be in the upper 60s and 70s with low
temperatures mainly in the 30s and 40s, coldest tonight. Periods
of breezy conditions will also occur across portions the region,
mainly tonight and Friday night. With this, the strongest winds
will occur over the western foothills around Livingston to Nye
(southwesterly wind gusts around 20 to 35 mph). By Friday, the
upper level ridge axis looks to shift east, allowing weak energy
and some moisture to move into the region under the southwesterly
flow aloft. With this, a slight chance of precipitation returns to
the mountains during the day Friday (10 to 25 percent).

Saturday then looks to be a transition day as a weather system
moves into the area from the west. At this time, uncertainty
remains in the details, but a change to cooler, wetter, and
windier is likely by Sunday. Cluster analysis indicates the
initial digging trough is expected, but how it evolves and
eventually splits over our area is uncertain. With that said, how
deep (far south) the system develops will play a big role in the
extent of the weather impacts. Therefore, if you have travel or
outdoor plans this weekend into early next week, make sure to stay
up to date with the latest forecasts. At this time, the best
chance of seeing more significant precipitation is over the
mountains and foothills of south- western and central Montana
where there is a moderate chance of seeing a quarter of an inch
(0.25") or more of precipitation. As you look east over the plains
of Montana into the Dakotas, the chance gradually decreases, with
there only being a 10 percent chance over the Montana/Dakotas
border. With cooler temperatures moving into the region, snow
levels look to drop around 6,000 feet by Sunday, with there being
a moderate chance of seeing snow levels drop below 6,000 feet by
Sunday night into Monday. Therefore, snow is expected over the
mountains with this system. With that said, the chance of seeing 6
or more inches of snow has decreased over the past 24 hours, with
the National Blend of Models now showing a 20 to 40 percent
chance of 6 or more inches of snow, greatest of the Absaroka-
Beartooth and Crazy Mountains.

As far as temperatures go with this system, high temperatures
will likely drop into the upper 40s to lower 60s Sunday into early
next week. Look for overnight lows Sunday into early next week to
drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the best chance of
seeing a hard freeze (28F or less) existing west of Billings and
just east of the Bighorns (moderate to high chance). Arends

.AVIATION...

Strong high pressure aloft will continue to bring widespread VFR
and clear skies over the next 24 hours. Downslope wind gusts of
20 to 30 knots are expected along the western foothills
(including KLVM) tonight into Wednesday morning. JKL/Archer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/072 044/070 043/074 051/073 043/057 034/052 034/054
    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W    53/W    31/B    21/B
LVM 039/072 037/072 039/075 045/065 033/051 026/050 027/055
    00/N    00/U    01/U    25/W    65/W    42/W    22/W
HDN 034/074 039/072 040/074 046/075 039/057 033/054 031/056
    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W    64/W    31/B    21/B
MLS 040/072 040/073 044/077 050/077 043/059 034/056 035/057
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    53/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 040/071 041/073 044/075 054/077 043/058 034/056 038/058
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    43/W    21/B    11/B
BHK 038/072 040/075 039/071 049/077 041/059 031/057 035/060
    00/U    00/U    00/N    11/U    32/W    21/B    21/B
SHR 032/072 037/074 040/075 045/075 036/057 030/056 030/057
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    64/W    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings