595
FXUS65 KBYZ 190918
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
218 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers today.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Breezy winds along the western foothills this weekend; a period
  of stronger winds possible Sunday night and Monday.

- Colder temps and possibly light snow by middle of next week
  (Tue/Wed).

- Wintry travel impacts possible for Thanksgiving and the holiday
  weekend...monitor the forecast!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No significant weather impacts are expected the rest of the work
week. Look for mainly above normal temperatures, and aside from
some showers today, little if any precipitation overall.

Today and tonight...A Pacific wave will track over our region and
bring a chance of scattered snow showers to the mountains (abv
6500 ft). Isolated to scattered light showers are expected over
the lower elevations, mainly west of Rosebud Countyf. Highs will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday through Monday...Low amplitude ridging or weak zonal
flow is expected over our region. This will keep conditions dry,
even over the higher terrain. By Friday night we may see gap winds
pick up as pressure gradient over the foothills strengthens (gusts
35 to 45 mph)...and may need a wind advisory for the usual gap
wind areas (Livingston/Nye) by latter part of the weekend. At
this point the US-191 corridor looks breezy/windy, but not enough
for highlites. Will keep tabs on this through the week. Temps will
be well above normal in the 50s and possibly some lower 60s by
Sunday and Monday.

Looking ahead for next week...Cluster analysis of model ensembles
indicate high confidence in a pattern change occurring around
Tue/Wed of next week. This would involve a significant cool down
with highs in the 30s and lows in the upper teens to 20s. This
looks to extend into the Thanksgiving Holiday. Much greater
uncertainty remains around precipitation, but some widespread light
snow looks possible. Holiday travel impacts are a possibility, so
we urge people to keep tabs on the forecast. BT

.AVIATION...

09z Discussion...

Isolated rain showers may continue across the plains through 12z
this morning. As these showers clear out, fog is expected to
develop in Eastern Montana (KMLS/KBHK), with patchy localized fog
farther south into Wyoming (KSHR). KBHK has the highest likelihood
of seeing fog develop after 10z. KMLS is expected to get into some
fog as well but there is still uncertainty on the extent and
density. In short, aviators for places around KSHR/KMLS/KBHK
should prepare for the possibility of IFR conditions through 15z.

Another round of showers move into south-central MT (KLVM) after
12z and may last through the rest of the forecast period.
Mountains will be partially to fully obscured throughout the
period. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 029/051 031/056 035/057 037/056 035/054 030/040
    2/W 10/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/W    22/W
LVM 050 029/053 029/054 033/054 035/055 035/053 026/039
    3/W 20/U    00/U    00/B    12/W    22/W    33/J
HDN 050 026/051 027/057 031/057 032/057 030/054 027/041
    2/W 10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W    32/W
MLS 048 026/049 028/053 031/053 033/054 030/049 027/038
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    21/B
4BQ 050 028/051 031/055 034/054 033/055 032/053 028/039
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 050 023/049 026/054 030/052 030/052 028/050 023/037
    2/E 00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    21/B
SHR 051 025/051 027/055 027/055 028/056 029/056 023/039
    2/B 00/B    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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