027
FXUS65 KBYZ 020803
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
103 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation expected through today. Well above
  normal precipitation amounts forecast for southeast Montana.

- Moderate to heavy snowfall expected for north and west aspects
  of the Absaroka/Beartooth and Bighorn Mountains today.

- Windy conditions over portions of eastern Montana and northern
  Wyoming today, gusts 25 to 45 mph common. A few gusts of 50 mph
  or higher in Southeast Montana and Northern Wyoming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Next 7 days (Through Sunday)...

Low Elevation Rain...
Confidence in the rainfall forecast has increased. Models are in
good agreement that a lob of low pressure will form over
Southeast Montana, enhancing rainfall to the north and west of
this low. This puts locations in Custer/Fallon Counties and north
to Glendive in the most favorable zone to see heavy rainfall of
1.5-2 inches or greater. This corridor of heaviest rainfall has
shifted to the north compared to previous forecasts. The lightest
rainfall amounts will be north and west of Billings where
generally 0.25-0.50 inches of rainfall are expected. Most
locations south and east of Billings have a moderate to high
chance of getting greater than 1 inch of rainfall. Precipitation
chances will decrease from west to east across the region today
with rain having moved into the Dakotas by tonight.

Mountain Snow...
Snowfall will increase over the Absaroka/Beartooth and Bighorn
Mountains this morning. Snowfall totals exceeding 6 inches in the
Absaroka/Beartooths will be limited to north and west facing
slopes over the highest elevations. Most of the Bighorn Mountains
can expect 5 to 10 inches of snow with winds gusting into the 40s
mph. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds will lead to
hazardous driving and recreation. Visibilities under 1/2 mile are
expected with occasional reductions under 1/4 mile. Travel along
Highway 14 will be very difficult. Conditions are expected to
improve this evening with winds becoming light overnight. Snow
levels are expected to get down to around 5,000 ft bringing 0-2
inches of snow to places such as Story and Red Lodge.

Wind...
A cold front moving in behind the low pressure system will bring
widespread 700 mb winds of 30-40 kts. Surface winds increase this
morning with most locations seeing a maximum wind gust in the 30s
to low 40s mph range today. The strongest winds will be along the
Dakotas border and North Central Wyoming where wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph are expected (50-90% chance). There is a 30-60%
chance that wind gusts will exceed 60 mph in southern Sheridan
County. Winds will begin to decrease from west to east this
evening with light winds expected across the region by Tuesday
morning.

Rest of the Week...
Tuesday through Sunday is expected to bring high temperatures in
the 50s with a limited chance of precipitation.


.AVIATION...

Widespread precipitation will continue through most of the period.
After 18z the precipitation will decrease from west to east. IFR
conditions are widespread across the forecast area due to the
precip, low CIGS, and reduced visibility. KLVM may see some snow
mix in with the rain before the precipitation moves out; no
accumulation is forecast at any terminal. Expect frequent changes
to flight categories through 18z, but no better than MVFR at
nearly all sites. Mountains will remain obscured through the
entire period.

After 12z surface winds begin to pick up out of the NW for nearly
all sites. KSHR will see the strongest gusts with speeds over
40kts likely. This will continue through the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will diminish this evening with improving flight
categories. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 031/055 032/053 031/057 033/058 036/055 034/058
    9/R 00/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    20/U    00/U
LVM 046 022/055 027/053 025/054 026/053 027/052 028/058
    5/O 00/B    00/B    00/U    11/N    20/U    00/U
HDN 046 025/056 025/054 025/059 028/059 032/056 027/060
    +/R 10/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    20/U    00/U
MLS 046 030/052 029/052 028/054 030/056 035/052 030/055
    +/R 10/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    21/N    00/U
4BQ 044 030/053 027/053 028/057 031/058 034/053 030/058
    +/R 40/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/U    00/U
BHK 051 028/050 025/052 025/055 028/057 031/051 028/056
    +/R 40/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    22/W    00/U
SHR 044 024/057 025/055 024/059 025/059 028/055 026/062
    9/R 30/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    31/N    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 8 PM MST this evening
      FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 8 PM MST this evening
      FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings