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FXUS65 KBYZ 311948
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
148 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm Monday and Tuesday with hazy skies.

- Late Tuesday cold front brings cooler temps and a few showers
  Tuesday night and Wednesday for eastern MT.

- Mostly dry with seasonable temps Thursday and Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Tuesday Night...

A nearly stationary low will slowly meander eastwards over the
coming hours brining with it the showers currently near Baker.
Until then, an isolated shower or two remain possible in Fallon
and Carter counties through the afternoon. The rest of the region
will be dominated by a ridge that will continue to build in
throughout the remainder of the day. Highs 5-10F above average for
most of the CWA today will translate into 10-15F above average
for Monday. Dry conditions will continue for the region to start
the week, except for a stray shower possible in the mountains.
Although the rain has finally cleared the area, smoke and haze
will fill into the area from the west this evening through the day
Monday, especially in the foothills and mountains.

Monday morning brings another chance for fog in the eastern 1/3
of the CWA, especially the river valleys. Areas near Baker have
the highest chance of seeing some fog as they received some light
precip earlier today and remain under a stratus deck at this hour
preventing any drying/evaporation. All clouds should be cleared
out of the area by morning in addition to the winds being light
and variable. This is conducive for the development of patchy
radiation fog.

Tuesday evening a vort max pushing out of AB, through NE MT and
into ND will drop a cold front through the region. While chances
for rain will remain to the east of Billings, some gusty north-
northeast winds have the potential to make their way all the way
into the foothills Tuesday night. This front will also be bringing
with it some Canadian wildfire smoke which could make its way
into eastern parts of the CWA, including Miles city, late Tuesday.

As the region dries out, with multiple days of above average
temperatures, the concern for higher fire danger begins to go up.
This time however, it doesn`t seem to be overly concerning. Min
RH values each day are forecast to be in the teens across the
region with high temps in the 80s but the 2-3 days of these hot
and dry conditions will likely not be enough to dry out the fuels
to a critical level in most of the area. Even though a cold front
is expected to move through late Tuesday, the winds do not look
too impressive as of now with gusts forecast to remain under 30mph
at this time. All this being said, it would not be surprising to
see some sparks quickly take off, so please exercise extra
caution during this time. WMR


Wednesday through Sunday...

An upper level ridge axis will be in place to our west at midweek,
with a strong upper low over Ontario into the Great Lakes region.
This places the high plains and our CWA under a N/NW flow. This
pattern will graudally shift east allowing high pressure aloft to
build over our region into the weekend leading to a general warming
trend. Precipitation will be scarce, with just a slight chance of
showers over the high country at times.

So for Wednesday, expect a somewhat cooler air mass over the area
behind Tuesday nights cold front with highs ranging from mid 80s
west to upper 60s east. Then we will bounce back into the 80s for
Thursday before another weak cold front in that northerly flow
drops us back a few degrees for Friday. By the weekend we should
see temps back well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be mostly
in the mid 40s to mid 50s through the period. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

18z Discussion...

The low clouds in Eastern MT from this morning have mostly cleared
out with the lower CIGs only remaining right along the Dakotas
border (near KBHK). Some isolated SHRA are possible near KBHK
through the afternoon (30% chance) with chances decreasing as you
go west. KMLS has a <20% chance of seeing precip today.

For the most part winds across the region will continue to be
light and variable for the entire period. Some haze may become
more prevalent after 20z which may reduce slant range visibility
and partially obscure mountains. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/090 058/091 057/078 054/083 052/078 050/082 053/082
    00/H    00/U    10/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/W
LVM 051/088 052/089 051/084 051/085 048/080 047/082 048/079
    00/H    00/U    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    23/T
HDN 053/090 054/091 054/076 049/082 046/077 047/083 050/084
    00/U    00/U    10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 056/090 057/087 054/072 046/079 046/073 045/077 048/083
    00/U    00/H    20/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 055/086 057/085 055/071 047/077 046/072 046/077 051/082
    00/U    00/U    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 050/087 052/083 048/067 040/077 041/070 040/074 045/082
    00/U    00/H    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 052/087 052/087 051/076 047/080 046/075 045/080 049/082
    00/H    00/U    11/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings