508
FXUS65 KBYZ 071238
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
638 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer through Friday.

- Next chance of precipitation this weekend; cooler by Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Other than a hint of fog on satellite imagery near Tongue River
Reservoir, the risk of fog is dwindling as we approach sunrise.
Today will be sunny with highs in the 60s. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

Still a low risk (15%) of localized fog in our far eastern valleys
between now and ~14z, though satellite imagery shows nothing yet.
Dew point spreads are only 2-4F so cannot rule out a little fog
out there. Western and central areas are milder and drier as we
are warm advecting.

Upper level ridge will bring dry and warmer weather through
midweek. Look for highs in the 60s today, and as the ridge axis
shifts east and opens the door to warmer air from the southwest,
we should see temps reach the lower to mid 70s Wednesday. There
is no chance of precipitation during this period.

Perhaps the surest sign of fall is wind along the foothills. Sure
enough, tightened downslope gradients along with a modest surface
high over YNP support a period of 20-35 mph gusts along the
foothills (including Livingston & Nye) tonight. SW winds will
slacken a bit Wednesday but the mixing alone will keep it breezy.

JKL

Thursday through Tuesday...

Warm and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday before a
pattern change to cooler and wetter conditions takes told for the
weekend. Ensembles and WPC Clusters are in good agreement that the 500
mb cutoff low over the northwest will phase with another trough
dropping down the Canadian Rockies. Even though this general
pattern is expected, there is still much uncertainty in the
details. Currently, there is a 30-70% chance for greater than 0.25
inches of precipitation with the lowest probabilities being east
of Rosebud County. Mountain snow is expected with this system with
the Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy mountains having a 30-70% chance
for greater than 6 inches of snow. Chances for the Bighorns are
10-30%. It is unclear what the pattern will look like early next
week but most solutions indicate some sort of troughing remaining
over the region.

Temperatures will be above average (5-15 degrees) Thursday and
Friday with values in the 70s F. There has been a change in the
temperature forecast for Saturday. Previously there was good
agreement in temperatures being well above average but there is
now significant uncertainty. This likely has to do with models
trying to figure out the timing of the weekend trough. Either way,
widespread high temperatures in the 50s F are expected for Sunday
and Monday. Torgerson

.AVIATION...

Strong high pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR and clear
skies over the next 24 hours. Downslope wind gusts to 25 knots are
expected along the western foothills (including KLVM) tonight.
JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 045/073 045/071 043/074 051/074 041/053 034/050
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    14/W    54/W    32/W
LVM 067 039/072 037/072 039/076 045/066 032/049 026/046
    0/U 00/N    00/U    01/U    47/W    65/W    42/W
HDN 067 034/073 038/072 040/076 046/076 040/055 031/052
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    14/W    64/W    32/W
MLS 067 040/073 040/073 043/076 049/079 044/055 033/052
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    43/W    21/B
4BQ 065 040/072 041/073 045/076 054/079 044/058 034/053
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    42/W    21/B
BHK 065 038/073 040/073 041/073 049/079 042/060 030/055
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/N    11/U    42/W    11/B
SHR 064 032/074 037/074 040/076 046/077 036/054 029/052
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    13/W    54/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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