194
FXUS65 KBYZ 012335
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
535 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm through Tuesday with hazy skies.

- Late Tuesday cold front brings breezy winds and a few light
  showers east into Tuesday night, and cooler temps for
  Wednesday.

- Tuesday night cold front may bring Canadian wildfire smoke into
  the eastern plains.

- Breezy to windy conditions Thursday.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Wednesday Night...

Satellite imagery shows strong/dry ridge over the northern
Rockies and an upstream cut off low just off the WA coast, the
latter of which is spreading some high clouds to the west half of
MT. More importantly for us is a shortwave moving through
northern Alberta that will eventually evolve into a deep upper
trough over southern Ontario/Great Lakes region. This feature will
bring us modest backdoor cooling behind a late Tuesday cold
front.

For our forecast area, conditions through Tuesday will be warm
and dry with temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s, not hot enough to
threaten daily records but still 5-10F above normal. Winds will
pick up a bit late Tuesday (15-25 mph gusts) as that cold front
drops into the high plains. Though we`ve had a stretch of "humid"
days and fairly widespread precip in recent days, the brief warm
stretch and frontal passage could promote somewhat better wildfire
activity. There may be a low risk of high-based t-storms Tuesday
afternoon, followed by a bit better chance of light showers over
the eastern half of our forecast area Tuesday night as the cooler
air backs in and combines with a hint of mid level frontogenesis
in the NW flow. However, the chance of any significant rain is
negligible for most locations with only 0.05" or less locally.

Wednesday should be cooler behind Tuesday evenings cold front with
a northeast wind prevailing. Highs will range from mid 80s west to
near 70 along the Dakota borders.

For those with wildfire smoke sensitivities...there are a large
number of active wildfires across the NW Territories of northern
Canada, with plenty of smoke. Tuesday evenings cold front could
spread some near-surface smoke into eastern MT Tuesday night into
Wednesday as winds shift to the NE-E. BT




Thursday through Sunday...

Ridge axis shifts over the Northern Rockies on Thursday. A surface
cold front will sweep through the area Thursday. This will bring
breezy to windy conditions, with wind gusts in the 20 to 40 mph
range (highest gusts in the south and east). Below normal
temperatures are forecast Thursday through Saturday, with highs
in the 70s and low 80s. Friday will be the coolest thanks to the
frontal passage on Thursday.

An upper level disturbance is depicted by deterministic models
moving under the ridge, Saturday into Sunday. There is uncertainty
on whether or not the chance for precipitation will increase.
Surface slow is shown to be south-southeasterly, but the mid-upper
level wind flow will be west-southwesterly. The surface flow from
the plains looks to be drier than the mid-upper level flow which
has monsoonal moisture. Currently, the chance for precip is low
for much of the area Saturday and Sunday. The western mountains
and foothills are the exception, with a low to moderate chance for
showers and weak thunderstorms.

High temperatures will climb back into the mid 80sF beginning
Sunday and continuing into the start of next week.

Matos
&&

.AVIATION...

00z Discussion...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail for the entire forecast
period. A stray shower is possible before 06z tonight across the
region. Wildfire smoke may limit slant range visibility or
obscure mountains at times. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/091 058/079 056/083 050/076 048/080 053/085 057/085
    00/U    00/K    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/W    12/W
LVM 052/090 050/086 052/085 045/079 047/079 049/082 050/080
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/W    24/T    34/T
HDN 054/092 054/078 049/082 045/076 043/082 049/086 052/085
    00/U    00/K    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B
MLS 057/090 054/073 049/078 044/070 043/076 048/082 052/084
    01/K    20/U    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 058/087 055/071 050/078 045/069 043/075 050/080 054/082
    00/U    10/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 052/084 048/068 044/076 039/067 038/071 043/077 049/082
    22/W    30/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 053/088 051/078 051/081 044/074 044/079 049/081 051/082
    01/U    00/U    00/N    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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