832
FXUS65 KBYZ 140807
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
207 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk (2/5) of severe thunderstorms today. Main threats
  are strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain. A small chance for
  tornadoes.

- There is daily potential for thunderstorms into next week; some
  severe thunderstorms are possible. Monitor the forecast.

- High elevation snowmelt will allow flows on rivers and streams
  to increase into the second half of this week. No flooding is
  expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through tonight...

Patchy fog, especially near the Dakota border, may linger until
just after sunrise.

Conditions are again favorable for thunderstorm development this
afternoon. A moist airmass will stay in place with dewpoint
values in the mid 50s to low 60s F. This will act to increase
convective potential with CAPE values nearing 2,000 J/kg across
much of the region. The upper level jet will lift to the north
slightly, reducing 0-6 km bulk shear into the 40-50 kt range. This
is still adequate to sustain severe storms. Hodographs will be
`shorter` than Friday, indicating weaker upper level winds.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2 of 5 threat for
severe thunderstorms for most of the region. The main threats
with any severe storms will be heavy rain, winds greater than 60
mph and hail greater than 1 inch in diameter (with a 10% chance
for hail greater than 2 inches in diameter). Additionally,
conditions remain supportive for the development of a tornado,
with a 2% chance. The most likely time frame for thunderstorm
development is between 3 PM and 10 PM. Archer


Sunday through Thursday...

The active pattern with near daily chances of afternoon
thunderstorms will persist through mid next week. Repeated
shortwave troughs / vorticity maximums will move through the
region providing a lifting mechanism for these storms.
Additionally, good WAA and moisture advection will continue with
an easterly surface wind across the CWA and veering winds with
height through the mid-levels.

On Sunday, shear values are forecast to be similar to
Friday & Saturday. SB CAPE values are actually forecast to be a
little higher with widespread values between 2000-3000 J/kg. A
decently strong shortwave trough will move up through ID into
western MT that will provide broad scale ascent and should be the
catalyst for these stronger storms. A lot of Sunday`s setup looks
similar to that of Today`s setup so future model runs and outlooks
will need to be monitored closely. A couple of storms could pack
quite a punch with all severe hazards possible.

Little change is likely heading into next week as all models are
in good agreement that no big disturbance in the jet stream is
forecast. Zonal flow with repeated shower chances appear likely to
stick around. Also expect slightly above average temperatures and
high humidity through mid-next week.

WMR/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...


Early this morning, patchy fog (10-20% chance) and MVFR ceilings
(20-65% chance, greatest in far southeast MT) are possible.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
(20-60% chance) will affect the area Saturday, beginning between
18z and 21z in western areas, then expanding to much of the area
Saturday evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing large
hail, strong wind gusts over 50 kt, and heavy rainfall producing
MVFR visibility. Shower/thunderstorm activity will decrease from
southwest to northeast Saturday night. RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 059/082 057/077 056/074 053/082 056/085 057/087
    2/T 34/T    65/T    56/T    20/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 082 050/081 051/075 047/072 046/080 049/084 049/084
    3/T 34/T    56/T    56/T    20/U    11/U    12/T
HDN 083 058/085 056/078 054/074 051/082 055/086 057/087
    2/T 44/T    74/T    67/T    30/U    10/U    11/U
MLS 082 061/086 059/079 056/075 054/080 056/086 059/085
    2/T 44/T    83/T    46/T    41/U    10/U    21/U
4BQ 083 060/087 059/077 056/072 053/079 056/085 058/086
    2/T 43/T    72/T    67/T    41/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 077 056/082 056/077 053/073 051/077 052/082 054/082
    2/T 34/T    93/T    45/T    51/U    10/U    21/U
SHR 084 054/085 054/078 051/071 047/078 051/086 055/087
    4/T 24/T    45/T    68/T    31/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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