074
FXUS65 KBYZ 070653
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1253 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms Today. Severe thunderstorms
  are possible over southeastern Montana and north central
  Wyoming this afternoon and early evening.

- Mainly dry Monday; then turning cooler with a daily chance of
  showers and thunderstorms rest of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Next 7 Days (Through Saturday)...

In the wake of the thunderstorms last evening and early this
morning, an initial cold front has dropped through much of the
area, bringing cooler conditions and northerly winds. A stronger
trough pushes in from the west this morning and is expected to
cross the region today, sending an associated cold front through
the area. Look for showers and thunderstorms to move into western
areas early this morning, spreading east today into the evening.

An axis of instability from the western Dakotas into southeast MT
is expected with sufficient forcing from the cold front and
associated jet max moving overhead. Strong deep layer shear (30-50
kts) and MUCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg should lead to a
large hail/damaging wind threat over eastern portions of the area
and down into Sheridan County, WY. Easterly winds at the surface
advecting in higher dewpoints will also aid in convection. How
far west this threat develops depends on how much the cooler air
mass gets into our area limiting instability. Temperatures are
forecast to range from the 50s and 60s over the west, to the 70s
over central areas and 80s out east. SPC currently has a slight
risk to enhanced for severe weather this afternoon and early
evening for southeastern areas. Please pay attention to the
forecast if you have outdoor plans today and keep an eye to the
sky.

By Monday, weak ridging moving into the region brings drier
conditions. Cooler and unsettled conditions are progged beginning
Tuesday and continuing through much of the week as an upper trough
develops over the northern Rockies. Multiple shortwaves dropping
through the region will bring daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures may be cool enough for some light snow
accumulations in the high country, including the Beartooth Hwy. The
chance for strong to severe storms looks to remain low, with the
better chance east of the area. Temperatures in the 70s to lower
80s Monday are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to middle 70s
Tuesday onward. STP

.AVIATION...

Issued 06Z. Isolated TS near KMLS & KBHK will end by 07z. VFR will
prevail through this morning, but scattered showers in the far
west may produce local MVFR near KLVM & KHWQ, as well as
occasional mountain obscurations.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early
evening. Some storms (mainly from Billings eastward) may be severe
and produce large hail and strong winds, along with brief heavy
rain (MVFR/IFR possible). Peak timing for TS today is from 19z to
02z. An afternoon cold front will bring breezy NW-N winds across
the region into the evening, with widespread gusts of 25-35kts.
VFR will prevail and winds will decrease late tonight as high
pressure builds back over the region.

JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 044/078 055/079 050/068 047/072 047/076 048/071
    5/T 10/B    01/B    75/T    31/N    21/U    23/T
LVM 066 035/073 048/069 040/060 036/066 038/072 040/067
    5/T 11/B    08/T    +8/T    31/N    11/U    23/T
HDN 075 041/080 052/081 048/070 045/071 045/075 046/070
    6/T 20/B    01/B    85/T    52/T    11/U    23/T
MLS 080 045/077 056/082 052/070 048/070 047/073 048/068
    6/T 30/B    11/B    55/T    43/T    11/B    12/W
4BQ 083 046/079 058/084 051/068 046/068 046/073 048/070
    7/T 42/W    11/B    87/T    44/T    11/U    23/T
BHK 084 044/076 054/084 049/068 045/066 045/070 045/064
    4/T 60/B    21/B    46/T    55/T    11/U    22/W
SHR 078 039/081 050/081 044/065 040/068 040/073 042/070
    7/T 40/B    03/T    78/T    53/T    12/T    24/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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