125
FXUS65 KBYZ 161913
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
113 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog likely tonight into tomorrow morning, with locally
  dense fog possible at times.

- Seasonal temperatures return Tomorrow and Friday (mid 80s),
  becoming above normal (90s) for the weekend. Isolated to
  scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
  possible each day through the weekend.

- Early next week is trending cooler and unsettled with another
  storm system working into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday night...

Upper level low that has brought the cool wet conditions to the
area is quickly exiting the area to the east this afternoon. In
doing so it is taking away the best chances for significant
precipitation, leaving low clouds and pockets of drizzle in its
wake. As we go through the afternoon we should see clouds lift up
ending drizzle, and in western areas break up allowing some late
day sun to emerge. Where the sun does break through afternoon
temperatures could push into the lower 70s, while cloudy locations
remain in the 60s. Cloud cover will be tricky tonight as there is
a continuing upslope east to southeast flow near the surface
though the night. This return fetch pulling plains moisture into
the area to go with the recent precipitation will make it hard for
clouds to completely clear tonight. Where we do see even partial
clearing expect areas of fog to develop, and some fog could be
locally dense at times. Due to the cloud cover and fog expect
temperatures to hold in the 50s for most lower elevations with 40s
into the foothills, holding above record lows for this date.

Heights rise on Thursday with zonal westerly flow over the area
aloft. This will help temperatures to rise to seasonal levels in
the mid 80s after the morning fog dissipates. Thursday looks dry
at this time. Another Canadian trof moves along the northern MT
border Thursday night into Friday morning. Its not close enough
to have a big impact on our weather, but will shove a northerly
wind into the area which will provide enough convergence to
increase precipitation chances over SE Montana into the 20 to 30
percent range. Any precipitation looks light with this system.
Chambers

Friday through Wednesday...

Northerly winds will put a lid on temperatures Friday, holding
near seasonal levels in the mid 80s. Isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will be possible, developing over the
western higher terrain and drifting eastward into central and
eastern zones into the evening.

Flow aloft backs to the southwest and increases for the weekend.
In addition to advecting warmer air from the southwest the
southwest flow will mix down the mountains in the afternoon
helping to boost temperatures well into the 90s for the weekend.
Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be
expected both Saturday and Sunday.

Early next week continues to look interesting with a broad and
unseasonably strong upper low taking shape over the PacNW on
Monday and sticking around through at least Wednesday. Ensembles
continue to favor this solution but there are some differences in
how the energy comes through the area, in one piece or in several
pieces leaking out of the main system. How this system evolves
will have a big impact on whether it becomes a big precipitation
producer or not, another significant cold push or just a return to
seasonal levels. There is also some severe thunderstorm potential
mixed in. Still a lot of uncertainty in the details, so stay
tuned. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Stratus is likely to persist for most areas well into tonight,
and when it does break-up, fog development is a likely
consequence. Models want to lift ceilings this afternoon to MVFR
or better for areas outside of the foothills, but then drop them
back down as the sun sets this evening. An east to southeast
upslope wind will aid in keeping stratus in place as well as
increase fog potential in the overnight and early morning hours.
Expect VFR conditions to develop across the area mid to late
morning, with reduced flight conditions holding in longest along
east facing foothills and across far southeast Montana. Mountain
tops are already starting to be revealed this afternoon and should
remain un-obscurred once clouds clear this afternoon, but lower
passes and foothills will remain obscured for the most part until
mid to late morning Thursday. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/085 059/086 062/093 062/092 062/089 059/085 058/082
    00/U    11/U    21/U    11/U    11/B    22/T    31/B
LVM 046/089 050/088 052/091 052/089 052/086 050/083 050/082
    01/U    01/U    21/U    11/U    11/B    22/T    32/T
HDN 050/085 057/087 061/093 059/093 059/089 057/087 057/084
    00/U    10/U    21/U    21/U    11/B    21/B    31/B
MLS 051/084 057/086 061/093 063/093 062/089 062/086 060/083
    01/B    10/U    11/U    31/U    21/B    22/W    31/B
4BQ 051/084 059/085 063/090 064/092 063/089 062/088 061/082
    00/U    20/U    21/U    21/U    10/U    21/U    31/B
BHK 046/076 051/082 056/084 059/089 058/087 057/085 056/081
    01/B    20/U    12/T    32/T    21/U    22/T    41/B
SHR 046/086 054/086 056/090 055/092 055/089 054/088 053/083
    00/U    11/U    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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