643
FXUS65 KBYZ 061351
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
651 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of windy conditions over the mountains and foothills in
  south-central Montana today into Sunday.

- Gusty crosswinds may impact travel along Interstate 90 from Big
  Timber through Livingston and Highway 191 from Big Timber to
  Harlowton today into early Saturday morning and Saturday night
  into Sunday morning.

- Mostly dry with above normal temperatures over the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...

Webcams show patchy fog has developed this morning, mainly along
the lower Yellowstone River valley around and east of Billings.
While patchy fog is likely occuring in other creek and river
valleys over the plains, satellite imagery suggests the extent is
very limited. As the sun comes up this morning, expected any fog
that did develop to dissipate, giving way to a seasonably warm day
with high temperatures in the 50s (F) for most. Breezy winds will
then develop today over south-central Montana, strongest over the
foothills west of Billings where westerly wind gusts in the 20s
and 30s (mph) look to be common. With this, an occasional wind
gust into the 40s (mph) cannot be ruled out today into tonight,
especially around Big Timber and Livingston to Nye. Low
temperatures tonight look to be warmer in the 30s and 40s (F) with
the continued breezy conditions. LA

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Next 7 Days..

Another morning of patchy fog is forecast across portions of the
CWA. The highest chance of seeing visibility reductions will be in
low lying areas and river valleys near Miles City and Forsyth.

An area of weak ridging will remain over the Northern Rockies for
the next few days, before an even stronger ridge builds in late
weekend. This will keep skies mostly clear allowing for good
diurnal swings, including highs above average. The normal high for
this time of year in most of our population centers is around
50F, however highs in the upper 50s to low 60s will be commonplace
for the next week. As the high amplitude ridge builds in Sunday,
some locations may even have a chance to touch the 70s and record
highs!

The most impactful weather to speak about is the potential for
some breezy conditions in the western parts of our CWA this
weekend. Two weak shortwaves will push through Montana (closer to
the MT/AB border) Saturday then Sunday. These vort maxes will
come with mainly dry conditions.

The first wave that moves through Saturday will be much more
impactful for areas to our NW but we will still see breezy winds.
The RAP is showing 700mb winds of roughly 30kts across central MT
midday which is roughly in line with what the long range models
have been showing for the past few runs. The wind direction looks
to be slightly north of west which could limit some of the gap
influence along the Big Timber to Harlowton corridor but not all
of it. Wind gusts in this area could reach 40 mph during the day
Saturday with even lower values for Billings and points east.

The second wave will move into NW MT during the day Sunday. As of
the latest model runs, it looks like this wave will bring
stronger winds aloft, however it will be just a touch farther
north than the Saturday wave. Stronger winds from the Big Timber
to Harlowton region are anticipated though for two reasons. The
first being that the winds aloft will be a little higher (around
40kts according to the GFS) and the wind direction will be due
westerly. This could be conducive for gusts in the 50s mph along
US-191 Sunday afternoon. The rest of the region could see wind
gusts in the 30s mph for much of the day. This will be something
to keep an eye on though as if this wave does push a little more
south or east then we could be talking about a more widespread
event with stronger winds.

The Livingston gap winds also look to occur this weekend. The
GFS/GEFS are both showing pressure gradient values fron IDA- LWT
of 10-14mb before sunrise both Saturday and Sunday morning. The
inversion both nights does appear to setup pretty well, although
any increase in high clouds from what is currently forecast could
alter the inversion strength considerably. And, as mentioned
above, the 700mb winds wil be stronger Sunday AM. Other than that
last detail, most of the ingredients look fairly similar both
mornings. Wind gusts in the 50s both mornings around Livingston
should be anticipated with a slightly higher likelihood on Sunday
morning.

Looking ahead to next week, it appears that the overall pattern
for our region remains relatively quiet. Long range models do
show more weak short waves pass near the our CWA but none of
which seem to be more impactful than some breezy winds or a few
showers. Looking out towards the middle of the month though, both
the GEFS and ECMWF Ensembles show a more progressive pattern with
temps closer to average. WMR

.AVIATION...

Fog is possible early this morning along the lower Yellowstone
River valley, east of KBIL. With this, KMLS could see brief
reductions in visibility, though confidence is low. Today will
then see breezy west to southwest winds around KLVM, K6S0, and
K3HT, with peak wind gusts mainly in the 20s to 30s knots. By late
tonight into Saturday morning, localized peak wind gusts around
40 knots are possible (medium chance) around KLVM as gap winds
develop. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. LA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 041/060 040/063 038/055 039/061 041/062 042/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B
LVM 054 033/060 036/062 034/057 036/059 035/061 036/063
    0/N 00/N    00/N    00/B    00/N    10/U    00/B
HDN 057 033/062 034/065 033/057 034/062 037/063 035/065
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B
MLS 055 037/061 036/063 035/054 035/059 039/061 038/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 057 036/062 038/066 037/055 036/060 040/063 039/065
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 055 035/060 033/065 035/054 031/058 035/059 036/064
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    10/U    00/U
SHR 056 029/063 032/068 031/056 032/061 033/064 034/067
    0/U 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings