549
FXUS65 KBYZ 181959
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
159 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon. One or two storms may be severe.

- Warm with a chance for strong thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

- Breezy conditions Saturday and Sunday with widespread gusts into
  the 30s mph possible.

- Much cooler and unsettled Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday night...

Temperatures were in the upper 70s to 80s this afternoon with
ridging building into the region from the west. There is a small
chance (15%) for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon over the
mountains and far northeastern areas near Baker. Temperatures will
drop into the upper 40s to 50s for most places tonight.

Dry conditions will persist into the first part of Thursday as the
ridge axis shifts east, in response to a large upper trough moving
into the Pac NW. By late in the afternoon, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to lift into the area as a
shortwave moves into the region in southwest flow. Thunderstorms
will continue into the early evening, decreasing into the
overnight. A few strong thunderstorms are possible for western
areas, and areas generally north of Billings. With inverted-V
soundings, the main threat with strong thunderstorms is gusty
winds. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather over portions of
the area. 700mb temperatures of 12-14C over the southeast should
limit convection over the lower elevations there. High
temperatures on Thursday will range from the 80s to lower 90s. STP

Friday through Wednesday...

Friday will have above average temperatures in the 80s F across
the region. Many low lying regions east of Billings have a 20-50%
chance of having a high temperature of greater than 90 F. Above
average moisture with PWAT values around 130% of normal combined
with a weak upper level wave will be enough to initiate
thunderstorms over the western mountains. The greatest threat for
these storms will be for locations such as Livingston and
Harlowton. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a risk level 1
of 5 for these storms.

Friday night, a slow moving cold front will begin to move through
Southeast Montana. This will decrease temperatures into the 70s F
Saturday for locations west of a line from Red Lodge to Roundup
with little to no change in temperatures east of Miles City.
Soundings and long range convective forecasts indicate a limited
severe weather threat the rest of the long term. An upper level
wave moves through Montana Saturday. At this time models are
indicating that precipitation will focus on locations to the north
and west of our region. Even though the most significant
precipitation will fall elsewhere, 50% precipitation chances will
be present over southeast Montana.

By Sunday, the cold front is expected to have moved across the
region bringing cooler temperatures in the 60s F for all of
southeast Montana. This front will bring breezy conditions the
weekend with widespread gusts into the 30s mph. Locations along
the western foothills and near the Dakotas border will have the
best chance (50-70%) of getting a gust over 40 mph. Early next
week, upper level troughing will lift to the north and east
increasing temperatures to seasonal values. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

In general, VFR will prevail through the period. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains this
afternoon, and over far northeastern areas near KBHK (15% chance).
A disturbance lifting through the region on Thursday will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during Thursday
afternoon and evening. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/089 059/086 058/081 050/067 046/071 049/076 053/080
    00/U    32/T    32/T    53/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
LVM 051/087 053/083 049/074 041/063 036/069 041/075 046/078
    02/T    44/T    44/T    55/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 056/091 058/089 058/085 051/068 045/071 049/078 051/080
    00/U    32/T    22/T    63/W    32/T    23/T    44/T
MLS 057/094 063/089 063/087 053/068 046/070 050/076 053/078
    00/U    42/W    22/W    63/W    22/W    34/T    44/T
4BQ 059/092 061/090 062/088 054/071 047/067 050/074 052/076
    00/U    11/U    11/U    31/B    22/T    34/T    54/T
BHK 055/093 060/087 060/087 054/069 044/066 046/072 050/074
    00/U    32/T    11/U    42/W    22/W    23/T    44/T
SHR 054/091 055/088 055/085 050/068 042/068 045/075 048/077
    00/U    11/U    11/U    44/T    33/T    34/T    45/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings