Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
458
FXUS65 KBYZ 310015
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
615 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight & Friday.
- Very hot & dry Saturday with widespread triple digit heat;
fire weather concerns elevated.
- Weak frontal passages expected both Saturday night and Sunday
night. Much cooler temps for Monday & Tuesday.
- Increased surface-based smoke may reduce air quality latter half
of weekend into Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Showers & embedded t-storms are exiting southeast MT, and the risk
of any severe storms in that area has ended. Isolated storms have
developed over west, mainly in the NW off of the Belts/Snowies.
This activity will remain weak and should die off around sunset.
Looking upstream there is a wave over central ID with an area of
showers & t-storms spreading into south central MT. This activity
is more notable and should eke into our west later this evening
and into the overnight hours. Models in disagreement here but the
wave and a modest E-SE low level jet give support to some
nocturnal showers and perhaps weak t-storms, which will track
eastward thru the night into Friday morning. JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Next 7 days (through next Wednesday)...
Convective activity in our east this afternoon is expected to
shift into the Dakotas by evening. Heavy rain is our main concern
with these storms, but wet microbursts with gusts to 65 mph are
also possible. Out west, weak forcing and a drying environment
will limit convection to weak isolated cells. Look for highs
topping out in the mid 90s this afternoon.
Low level moisture will decrease tonight into Friday with PWATs
dropping to under an inch across the area. Models suggest a weak
shortwave tracking over the area tonight which may produce an area
of showers and isolated thundershowers overnight into early
Friday across east central Montana, before drifting into our
southeast by midday Friday and maybe into the afternoon.
Otherwise, convective activity Friday looks minimal. Look for high
temps 90s to near 100F Friday.
Significant 700mb thermal ridge exerts itself Saturday. 700b
temps ranging from 16-20C into our region suggest surface temps
over 100F. The chance of at least 105F is highest along the river
valleys from Billings to Miles City (45-60%). The extreme heat
will be a health risk for folks outdoors. We have continued an
Extreme Heat Watch across our lower elevations from noon to
midnight. As an upper trough pushes into the Pacific NW and
northern Rockies late Saturday into Sunday, we will see the upper
ridge suppressed. An associated cold front will push thru Saturday
night. Thus, Sunday will be cooler, but still hot/dry, with
breezy north to northeast winds over the east. A stronger frontal
passage arrives Sunday night setting the stage for notably cooler
days Monday & Tuesday with highs in the 70s for some locations,
along with breezy conditions. Low amplitude ridge comes back by
midweek, and should push temps back to around 90F Wednesday.
A few light showers are possible Monday as upper trough axis
shifts across the region. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail
through the middle of next week.
Fire Weather: The triple digit heat and 10% or less humidity will
elevate fire weather concerns Saturday. Mixed winds will be only
somewhat breezy during the peak heating hours, but with the
extreme temps and possibly single digit RH values, we have opted
to issue a Fire Weather Watch from Yellowstone County westward. We
will go thru Sunday with this as temps will still be in the the
90s and RH still in the teens Sunday afternoon, we may see some
afternoon winds approach marginal criteria. Valid period is 2 pm
Saturday to 9 pm Sunday.
Smoke impacts: Post-frontal subsidence and shift to upslope winds
may yield higher concentrations of surface-based smoke for the
latter half of the weekend into Monday. Reduced air quality is
possible. Something to monitor over the next few days.
Climate tidbits: Smoke permitting, there is a very good chance
that daily records will be broken this Saturday August 1st.
Billings, Livingston & Sheridan may get close monthly (August)
records as well. These are summarized below.
SITE 8/1 FORECAST 8/1 RECORD AUG RECORD
Billings 104 102 (2008) 105 (8/2/2024)
Livingston 102 101 (2000) 105 (8/5/1961)
Miles City 104 104 (2008) 110 (8/7/1995)
Sheridan 101 103 (2008) 106 (8/7/1983)
Baker 101 99 (2022) 108 (8/12/2018)
BT
.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
The thunderstorm threat has decreased as storms in the east have
moved into the Dakotas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain
possible across the region through the overnight. These storms may
produce wind gusts up to 40 kts and small hail. LT
Smoke from distant wildfires will continue to reduce slant range
visibility at times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/098 064/104 069/095 060/077 052/080 056/090 061/092
21/K 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 057/095 057/102 060/094 050/078 044/079 048/090 054/090
20/K 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 062/098 061/105 067/098 058/080 050/082 054/092 059/094
22/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U
MLS 062/098 064/104 071/096 061/080 052/080 056/092 063/093
12/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 11/U
4BQ 060/095 064/100 071/097 063/082 054/081 058/092 064/094
12/T 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 057/094 061/101 066/098 060/083 049/079 052/089 059/093
12/T 00/G 00/U 10/N 10/U 10/U 21/U
SHR 056/094 058/101 064/099 057/082 048/082 052/090 057/092
12/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
Fire Weather Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday evening FOR ZONES 117-123>128.
WY...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening FOR ZONE 199.
&&
$$
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