270
FXUS65 KBYZ 301341
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
741 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler with light precipitation possible on the plains
  Thursday.

- Otherwise, mostly mild and dry weather prevails into early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Surface cold front is dropping thru north central MT and will
bring a shift to NW-N-NE winds thru the course of the day. Onset
of cold advection will keep temps a few degrees cooler than
yesterday but still warmer than normal. Chance of light precip
begins in our NE late tonight. Forecast is in good shape. Have
upped pre-frontal wind a bit along the western foothills per
current obs. Will need to watch for potential upslope stratus
tonight as NE-E winds deepen. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...

Warm and breezy conditions continue today, with highs in the 70sF.
Winds will start the day out of the west, before increasing with a
dry cold front in the afternoon. Winds will shift to the NE
through the afternoon, with gusts in the 15 to 30 mph range
(greatest along and north of I-90 and I-94 from Livingston to
Baker. The chance for precipitation through this afternoon is very
low, although a few light showers may develop later tonight and
into Thursday morning.

A surface high moves into northeast Montana Thursday morning,
shifting winds around to the southeast through the afternoon.
The latest HRRR and GFS deterministic runs show an area of
showers developing across locations mainly east of Billings, late
tonight and into Friday morning. Temperatures look to cool for
Thursday with a backdoor front, as high temperatures in the 50s
and 60sF are currently forecast.

As for total precipitation amounts from any showers over the next
48 hours, significant moisture is not anticipated. The latest
ensembles only show a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of
precipitation through Friday morning.

Another upper wave moves across on Friday, though the general
pattern trends towards ridging. Winds look to flip around once
again, this time to the west-north. Warmer temperatures return,
with highs currently forecast in the 70sF. The chance for
precipitation beyond Friday morning is currently low, although few
light showers may accompany another front and wave late Friday
into Saturday morning.

Confidence is high that ridging will build over the Northern
Rockies over the weekend and into next week. This will bring above
normal temperatures and drier conditions.

Confidence also remains high for warmer & drier than normal
conditions persisting in the 8-14 day time frame (Oct 7-13), per a
stagnant ridge over the western CONUS. The Pacific Tropics remain
very active and it may take a tropical storm/hurricane to alter
the longwave pattern at some point.

Matos/JKL

.AVIATION...

Breezy west to northwesterly winds will develop this morning.
This evening into tonight, expect winds to shift out of the north
then east as a dry cold front drops through the region. While VFR
conditions will prevail, mid level clouds are expected to develop
behind the cold front tonight into Thursday. Near the mountains,
low level clouds (MVFR ceilings) are possible as well, which may
result in some mountain obscurations. LA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 046/064 043/073 047/068 043/070 048/081 052/078
    0/U 00/E    10/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 074 039/068 039/077 043/072 039/075 046/080 047/077
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
HDN 077 045/065 040/073 044/069 042/073 045/081 049/079
    0/U 01/E    20/U    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 075 046/059 041/069 046/067 043/070 047/077 051/076
    0/B 24/W    00/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 077 049/062 044/072 048/067 045/071 049/079 053/078
    0/U 13/W    20/U    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 075 042/058 036/067 042/066 038/068 041/076 048/077
    0/U 14/W    10/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 076 042/067 040/073 044/069 042/074 046/081 048/077
    0/U 00/B    20/U    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings