059
FXUS65 KBYZ 021134
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
534 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today.

- Late day cold front brings breezy winds and a few light showers
  in the east tonight; Wednesday will be cooler.

- Tonight`s cold front may bring Canadian wildfire smoke into the
  eastern plains; reduced air quality possible.

- Another cold front arrives Thursday bringing stronger northwest
  to north winds, gusting 30-45 mph (strongest east of Billings).
  This frontal passage may bring more Canadian wildfire smoke.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Wednesday Night...

Satellite imagery shows a dry NW flow over the region, with a
ridge axis over western MT/ID and a cut off low further west near
the WA coast. To the north there is a shortwave dropping into
northern SK that will push to the southeast today. An associated
cold front will sag into our region this evening. Ahead of this
front, today will be hot and dry once again, with temps in the mid
80s to lower 90s along with RHs of 15-25%. Pre-frontal winds will
be relatively light, but mixed north winds will begin to increase
by late afternoon. This will be followed by N-NE post-frontal
winds gusting 15-25 mph this evening. Fire concerns will be
elevated today so take care to not spark a fire. RH recoveries
tonight will be good w/ the change of air masses.

There should be a few light showers over our east tonight, behind
the backdooring front and along a brief period of mid level
frontogenesis clipping eastern MT...but for the most part the wave
will track too far to the east to bring any meaningful precip. We
are looking at a few hundredths at most, mainly for Fallon &
Carter Counties. Post-frontal cooling will also be quite modest.
Look for highs on Wednesday ranging from the upper 60s near the
Dakotas to mid-upper 80s in the west.

Pressure falls arrive quickly by Wednesday afternoon and we will
see some lee side troffing Wednesday night, as the next stronger
clipper approaches from the north. No chance of precip Wednesday
or Wednesday night.

Finally regarding wildfire smoke. Light northeast winds have
brought some surface smoke (from Canada) into northeast MT, with
visibility of 4SM at Wolf Point and Glasgow at 1am. We may or may
not see reduced visibility make it to Miles City and Baker thru
the course of day, but the much greater risk is tonight and
Wednesday behind the backdooring front with the onset of easterly
upslope winds. Be aware that air quality may decrease over much of
the region.

JKL

Thursday through Sunday...

By Thursday, the axis of the ridge will be squarely over the
Northern Rockies. A surface cold front will sweep through the area
Thursday as a deep low descends into the great plains. This will
bring windy conditions to most of the CWA. Wind gusts over 20mph
are expected region wide with a high likelihood (80%) that gusts
could top 30mph near Miles City and Baker. Behind the front,
slightly below average temps are forecast, with Friday being the
coldest day. There is a 70% chance that the high on Friday in
Miles City will be below 70F with even places as far west as
Billings having a 30-40% chance of the same.

An upper level disturbance is depicted by deterministic models
moving along the jet Saturday into Sunday. There is still
uncertainty this far out on whether or not this will come with a
chance for precip. Surface flow is shown to be south-
southeasterly, but the mid- upper level wind flow will be west-
southwesterly. The surface flow from the plains looks to be drier
than the mid-upper level flow which will be advecting in monsoonal
moisture. Currently, the chance for precip is low for much of the
area Saturday and Sunday as POPs for Billings currently only sit
around 10%. The western mountains and foothills are the exception
with roughly a 50% chance of precip.

High temperatures could climb back into the mid 80sF beginning
Sunday and continuing into the start of next week.

Matos/WMR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today, but lofted wildfire smoke may
reduce slant range visibility at times. Tonight, behind a Canadian
cold front as winds veer to the N-NE, reductions in surface
visibility due to Canadian wildfire smoke are possible. Expect
KMLS to be impacted first, followed by KBIL and KSHR. Current
indications are for reductions to MVFR, but this will need to be
monitored. Otherwise, expect a few showers or weak t-storms near
the Dakotas late this afternoon and evening. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 057/082 058/081 048/074 046/080 052/082 057/082
    0/U 00/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T
LVM 090 051/088 052/082 043/077 044/080 050/079 049/079
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    24/T    33/T
HDN 093 054/080 053/080 043/073 041/082 049/084 053/083
    0/U 00/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B
MLS 089 054/074 052/076 043/068 040/076 048/082 054/083
    1/U 10/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    10/B
4BQ 087 055/073 052/076 043/066 040/075 049/081 055/081
    0/U 10/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 084 047/069 045/074 038/066 036/072 043/079 049/081
    2/T 30/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/B
SHR 090 051/080 051/079 042/072 041/079 049/080 051/079
    1/U 00/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings