427
FXUS65 KBYZ 141055
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
455 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation is forecast through Saturday. Moderate
  to high chance for at least a half an inch of precipitation
  exists across the area.

- Daily afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
  into next week.

- Below normal temperatures through Saturday, before returning to
  near normal next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Showers continue across portions of southern Montana and northern
Wyoming this morning. Aside from a few lightning strikes detected
by satellite in Custer County, thunderstorm activity has been
minimal. Low stratus continues to become widespread this morning,
along with patchy fog. Look for low clouds to continue through the
morning and fog to dissipate through sunrise. A few of the latest
Hi-Res model runs are depicting a stronger thunderstorm developing
over the higher terrain west of Billings this afternoon/evening.
The HRRR is showing this storm moving into Billings around 6 PM
MDT. The main concerns are heavy rainfall and wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph. Continue to monitor the forecast if you have outdoor plans
today. Matos

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...

Troughing and a surface low over southeast MT is expected to
continue to bring scattered to widespread showers and some
embedded thunderstorms through the overnight hours, gradually
clearing through the morning. Another weak disturbance is
expected to move through under southwest flow aloft this afternoon
and evening. Modest CAPE values generally less than 1000 J/kg and
bulk shear at 20-30 kts may bring a few strong thunderstorms, but
cloud cover may limit the instability. With precipitable water
values remaining elevated through the next couple days, the main
threat with any storm will continue to be heavy rain. Another wave
is expected to move through Saturday afternoon and evening with
dryer air moving in behind. Moderate to high chances for at least
a half an inch of precipitation through Saturday remains across a
majority of the region, excluding southeast MT where a low chance
exists. Chances for at least an inch of precipitation for this
same time period looks best for areas west of Billings (50-80%).
Continue to use caution if recreating near any burn scars over the
next couple days.

Although slightly drier air moves in and mid level heights return
to near normal, the region maintains a slight southwesterly flow
aloft with southeasterly flow in the lower levels. Although no
prominent disturbances are showing in the ensembles, this pattern
will give way to continued daily low to moderate chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms next week.

High temperatures will be in the uppers 60s and 70s today and
Saturday, warming into the 70s and 80s for next week. TS

.AVIATION...

Showers continue this morning around and mainly east of KBIL. Low
stratus and patchy fog continue to develop and impact all
terminals, with the greatest impacts to KMLS so far (conditions
as low as LIFR observed). Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected with the low cigs and precipitation. Additional
precipitation will develop later this morning and into this
evening, with a few thunderstorms possible. The best chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening will be for KLVM, KBIL, and
KSHR. The main impacts with any thunderstorms are heavy rainfall,
lightning, and gusty winds. Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 057/075 056/083 058/086 058/078 055/079 056/083
    6/T 63/T    40/U    31/B    64/T    42/W    31/B
LVM 071 045/077 045/082 048/084 047/077 044/078 045/081
    6/T 74/T    51/U    32/T    86/T    63/T    22/T
HDN 075 052/077 051/084 053/088 054/080 050/081 051/085
    5/T 54/T    31/U    11/B    64/T    42/W    21/B
MLS 075 055/076 053/084 057/088 058/079 053/080 054/084
    5/T 11/B    22/W    11/B    44/T    42/W    22/T
4BQ 077 057/076 055/083 058/088 059/081 056/080 056/084
    4/W 22/B    34/W    11/B    44/T    43/T    32/T
BHK 075 052/076 049/082 053/088 054/079 050/079 050/083
    6/T 30/B    01/U    21/B    45/T    43/T    23/T
SHR 074 050/073 048/080 050/084 051/078 049/078 048/082
    3/T 57/T    41/U    11/B    35/T    43/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings