621
FXUS65 KBYZ 032034
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
134 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty to locally strong winds western foothills tonight into
  Thursday. (Livingston, Nye, Big Timber, Harlowton)

- Accumulating snow possible Friday PM through Saturday for lower
  elevations. Still uncertainty in amounts.

- Persistent snow in the mountains Thursday PM through Saturday
  with total accumulations over a foot possible.

- Pattern change to warm and very windy Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Tuesday...

Periods of snow (light in the plains, heavy at times mountains)
and wind through Saturday transitions to windy and much warmer
coming out of the weekend into next week.

Disturbance that brought a cold front into the area overnight has
shifted well south of the area this afternoon, with precipitation
and cloud cover diminishing in its wake. The core of the cold air
that worked into the area this morning is beginning to slide
southeast into the northern plains dragging the now stationary
front back to the east as a weak warm front. Temperatures across
the area range from the mid 30s west to the low teens along the
eastern state line. Isallobaric pressure falls along the front
range tonight, instigated by the cold air retreat, will steepen
the pressure gradient along the western foothills. Guidance
suggest wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range will develop for
Livingston and Nye areas by midnight tonight with a 60 percent
chance for gusts above 50 mph by sunrise Thursday. Probabilities
for gusts over 60 mph are 30 to 40 percent at this time. 700mb
wind direction and speed are not optimal for 60+ mph gusts and the
gradient is expected to be around 13mb, so for now holding off on
a wind advisory, but drivers should still expect strong crosswinds
in the 50 mph range tonight into tomorrow morning along I-90 near
Livingston.

Increased winds for the Harlowton and Big Timber (US-191 corridor)
for tomorrow based on latest guidance showing a peak in wind gusts
around 50 mph (45%) there by mid day. All the ingredients are not
lining up for stronger gusts to 60 mph for this area, but there
are a few hints at an isolated gust or two over 50 mph. NBM tends
to overdo the wind gusts in this area at times and this looks like
it could be one of those times given the ingredients, but
warranted an increase in forecast wind speed and further
monitoring as we head into tomorrow.

Downslope winds will keep Friday dry for the lower elevations as
well as pushing temperatures into the upper 30s, and perhapse
lower 40s depending on how cloud cover plays out (more results in
cooler/less in warmer temperatures). Cold front drops into the
area late in the day bringing another push of Canadian air. Low
level frontogenesis along the southern frontal boundary wraps in a
decent easterly wind along and north of the front late Friday
night into Saturday that could bring a period of better snowfall
to central and eastern portions of the forecast area under an
active frontogenesis band combined with good vertical dendritic
growth. Snowfall forecast for Friday night/Saturday increased to 2
to 4 inches from Billings east through Rosebud county with this
forecast, from less than an inch previously. This is a newer
feature in the forecast so will have to see if it stays consistent
for a few runs before making too much of it.

What is more certain is a prolonged 72 hours period of light to
occasionally heavy snowfall for the western mountains from late
Thursday through Saturday. During this period 10 to 18 inches of
snowfall is expected, heaviest on west and northwest facing
slopes of the Beartooth/Absaroka/Crazy mountains. The northwest
portion of the Bighorn mountains may also pick up substantial snow
in this flow pattern, though areas further south around Burgess
Junction will see more modest amounts. Contemplated a Winter Storm
Watch for the mountains, but give the long duration of the event
and heaviest snowfall likely Friday night into Saturday decided
against it. That said those planning high country recreation late
week into the weekend should be prepared for winter weather.

Ridging builds along the west coast Sunday and pushes the
persistent plains trof that has been in place the past 10 days
further to the east. There will likely be some light snow in the
warm advection regime Sunday as the Canadian air is displaced and
Pacific moisture flows into the region over the ridge. However,
the main impactful weather with this ridging pattern will be
strong winds along the western foothills Sunday night through
what looks to be most of next week as the ridge pattern stagnates
over the western half of the country. Those looking for warmer
temperatures are in luck as highs could reach the 50s in some
areas by next Tuesday. So, take a picture of the snow this week
because it will be leaving the lower elevations next week.
Chambers

.AVIATION...18z Discussion...

Light snow showers linger at KSHR at this time but are forecast
to end by 20z. The MVFR to IFR CIGs are also expected to slowly
erode over the coming hours allowing all sites to return to VFR
conditions (with the exception of KBHK). Gusty gap winds are
forecast to pick up after 01z tonight at KLVM where winds ot of
the SW may gust up to 45-50kts. After 04z K6S0 and K3HT may also
see some breezy winds out of the west with gusts up to 35kts.

A quick moving front may bring some light snow showers and a quick
change to NW winds between 12-16z across the region. A brief dip
down to IFR conditions cannot be ruled out at any site during this
time. WMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/037 027/036 020/029 018/039 029/043 031/048 032/042
    13/S    33/S    64/S    10/B    10/B    13/O    44/O
LVM 021/037 026/038 025/038 023/041 030/046 033/051 033/044
    05/S    55/S    75/S    21/B    21/N    23/O    44/O
HDN 013/037 026/038 018/029 013/039 024/043 027/048 028/042
    15/O    63/O    76/S    31/B    21/B    13/O    44/O
MLS 010/035 025/033 012/021 008/032 022/041 027/046 025/038
    03/S    41/E    62/S    30/B    10/B    13/O    43/O
4BQ 015/037 026/035 018/028 013/036 025/042 028/047 028/039
    02/B    32/S    52/S    20/B    10/B    12/O    43/O
BHK 005/034 021/032 007/020 003/030 017/039 024/043 020/033
    02/Q    41/E    43/S    30/B    20/B    13/O    42/S
SHR 013/040 021/037 017/033 017/041 023/046 026/051 027/043
    04/S    52/S    64/S    21/B    10/B    12/R    44/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings