261
FXUS65 KBYZ 022036
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
236 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late day cold front brings breezy winds and a few light showers
  in the east tonight; Wednesday will be cooler.

- Tonight`s cold front may bring Canadian wildfire smoke into the
  eastern plains; reduced air quality possible.

- Another cold front arrives Thursday bringing stronger northwest
  to north winds, gusting 30-45 mph (strongest east of Billings).
  This frontal passage may bring more Canadian wildfire smoke.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday Night...

Low precipitation chances (10%) will persist through tonight along
the cold front, mainly for Fallon and Carter counties. Little to
no accumulation expected. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow
with high pressure over our eastern zones. Western zones will see
minimal impact from this cold front. This will create a large
temperature gradient across the forecast area with high 60s F near
the Dakotas border to high 80s F for Livingston. This front will
also bring smoke into the region which has the potential to reduce
air quality.

A stronger cold front arrives Thursday bringing strong winds and
colder air. Models are indicating 700 mb winds of around 50 kts
from Rosebud County and east. Soundings indicate steep lapse rates
allowing these winds to mix down to the surface. Locations from
Northern Rosebud to Carter County and Sheridan County Wyoming have
a 40-80% chance of getting a wind gust over 50 mph. Gusts near 40
mph will be common elsewhere. High pressure will be more centrally
located over the region Thursday leading to high temperatures in
the low 70s F to low 80s F. Many locations have a 10-40% chance of
getting a low temperature in the 30s F Friday morning. This cold
front will bring additional smoke into Montana. Models are
indicating smoke concentrations may be higher with this front but
it is difficult to say at this point. Reductions to air quality
possible. Torgerson


Friday through Monday...

Thanks to a strong cold front moving through on Thursday, Friday
will be much cooler than normal, with highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s (coolest in the east). The region will still be under a
ridge axis, resulting in mostly dry conditions going into the
weekend. The chance for precipitation does increase over the
west (low to moderate chance) , Saturday and Sunday due to an
upper disturbance moving under the ridge. Uncertainty remains with
precip, though it does not appear to be a significant system. Much
of the available moisture will be monsoonal in the mid-upper
levels with WSW flow, while surface flow from the ESE looks to be
dry.

Temperatures will begin to increase over the weekend and into next
week, though below normal highs are still forecast for Saturday
(70s to low 80s). With the ridge rebuilding Sunday into Monday,
temperatures are forecast to climb back towards normals.

Matos

&&

.AVIATION...


Tonight, behind a Canadian cold front as winds veer to the N-NE,
reductions in surface visibility due to Canadian wildfire smoke
are possible. Expect KMLS to be impacted first, followed by KBIL
and KSHR. Current indications are for reductions to MVFR, but this
will need to be monitored. Otherwise, expect a few showers or
weak t-storms near the Dakotas late this afternoon and evening.
JKL/LT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/084 059/079 047/073 046/079 052/082 057/082 056/083
    00/K    00/K    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/W    11/B
LVM 052/089 053/080 041/076 044/081 050/078 048/078 048/078
    00/K    00/N    00/U    01/U    24/T    33/T    22/T
HDN 054/082 053/078 043/073 042/081 047/082 053/083 052/084
    00/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 054/074 054/074 041/068 040/074 047/082 053/084 054/084
    20/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/U
4BQ 054/073 054/074 042/066 041/074 048/080 056/081 055/083
    20/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/U
BHK 049/070 047/072 037/065 035/072 042/079 049/081 049/081
    20/K    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 052/081 054/077 041/071 041/079 047/080 051/079 049/081
    00/U    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings