480
FXUS65 KBYZ 250835
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
235 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, mainly over the higher
  terrain, with a few strong storms possible for eastern Montana.

- Thursday will be warmest day of the week with highs in the 80s
  to low 90s degrees.

- A chance of late day thunderstorms will continue through the
  weekend with drier conditions by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night...

Currently, a 700 mb jet under southwest flow is producing some
scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeast MT. Showers and
thunderstorms are weakening and will not present any threat for
strong storms the remainder of the night. Showers will remain
along the Dakotas border through the night and gradually move
east this morning. As these showers retreat through the night,
northern WY and southeast MT have about a 20% chance at seeing
some fog through around 8 am. Into this afternoon, a shortwave
disturbance will make its way though MT. As a result, some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over higher terrain and over southeast MT. Afternoon
heating will allow for increased instability with MUCAPE values of
1000-1500. This and decent shear values of around 30 kts will
favor a few strong to severe storms. Main threats with these will
be strong winds and hail. Into Thursday, some localized fog is
possible for eastern MT, especially for those who received
precipitation the night before. For the afternoon, some energy in
longwave troughing is expected to move across northern MT.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
Thursday afternoon, with a few strong storms possible. With the
best forcing and shear being further north, the stronger storms
are more likely to be over the northern parts of the forecast
area.

High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s today,
warming into the 80s and low 90s by Thursday. TS


Friday through Tuesday...

Cluster analysis indicates increased confidence that we will see
weak W/SW flow over the region and a series of low amplitude upper
troughs tracking across the Canadian/Montana border Friday and
into the weekend. This leads to somewhat cooler temps than
Thursday, and also results in a chance of isolated/scattered
convection for our area. The most notable period of convection is
Saturday evening/night, especially for portions of SE Montana and
along the Dakota border. Sunday will see temps typical for this
time of year (low 80s) with a chance of showers/thunderstorms
mainly over southern sections of our CWA (MT/WY border areas).

None of the convective activity is screaming severe weather at
this time, but MUCAPE up around 1000 J/kg Saturday evening in the
SE corner of the state suggests a few strong storms are possible.

Model ensembles are then in better agreement for Monday and
Tuesday with strong upper ridge building over our region. This
should push highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s with just
isolated if any convection, and mainly limited to the higher
terrain. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning. However, showers
and isolated thunderstorms may linger across southeast Montana
before moving east into the Dakotas by around 11Z. Any stronger
cells may produce heavy rain and gusty winds to 35kts along with
brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Areas of low clouds and patchy fog may
develop over southeast Montana as well as northern Wyoming between
09Z and 15Z resulting in local MVFR/IFR conditions...but the
probability of impacts to aviation related locations (KSHR/KBHK/KEKA)
is less than 20%. VFR will then otherwise prevail across the
entire area by 18z. Look for a chance of thunderstorms again in
the afternoon and evening over our eastern routes (impacts
possible mainly at KMLS/KBHK). BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 056/088 058/085 058/081 057/081 058/086 061/091
    0/U 02/W    11/B    22/T    21/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 082 050/085 050/083 050/080 049/081 050/085 054/090
    2/T 02/T    12/T    23/T    11/U    00/U    11/U
HDN 083 055/090 054/087 058/083 057/082 057/088 059/092
    2/W 02/W    11/B    32/T    31/U    10/U    11/U
MLS 082 057/091 061/088 061/085 059/083 058/087 060/092
    3/T 12/W    20/U    32/W    31/U    10/U    11/U
4BQ 079 057/087 060/088 060/085 058/080 058/083 061/088
    3/T 12/W    10/U    11/U    42/T    10/U    11/U
BHK 073 052/084 058/087 057/083 054/079 053/082 055/085
    5/T 22/W    21/U    21/U    31/U    10/U    11/U
SHR 080 051/086 052/087 054/082 052/079 052/082 055/087
    2/T 12/W    11/B    12/T    33/T    11/U    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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