825
FXUS65 KBYZ 071948
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
148 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of
  producing gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and hail are forecast
  today.

- Windy conditions will exist today through Tuesday. Wind gusts of
  25 to 50 mph will be common, strongest in south-central MT today
  and eastern MT Tuesday. This will cause elevated fire weather
  conditions.

- Warmer and drier conditions return mid-week. Occasionally
  breezy conditions will cause localized elevated fire weather
  conditions.

- A pattern change to cooler with an increased chance of
  precipitation returns Friday into the weekend. Details remain
  uncertain. Stay up to date with the latest forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

A low pressure system will bring isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms and windy conditions to the area today. These
showers and thunderstorms are currently, as of 1:30PM MDT, moving
east through south-central Montana. Expect these showers and
thunderstorms to move through eastern Montana through the
afternoon before coming to an end this evening. The main risk with
this activity is gusty and erratic winds, brief heavy rain, and
hail. Cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms today,
and have already seen a few severe wind gusts over central
Montana. Outside of this activity, the main concern today is the
widespread windy conditions that are developing across the area.
Have already seen wind gusts of 25 to 50 mph (outside of a few
higher convective wind gusts), strongest over the foothills west
of Billings. Look for these winds to continue into this evening,
gradually spreading east through the day. While winds will subside
tonight, breezy conditions will continue overnight generally
around and north of a Livingston to Billings to Ekalaka line.

Tuesday will be another windy day as the low pressure system
lifts to the northeast. With this, west to northwesterly wind
gusts of 20 to 45 mph are forecast, strongest over eastern
Montana. While mostly dry conditions will prevail, a shortwave
trough behind the low pressure system may bring enough lift to
support isolated showers over south-central Montana during the
day. With that said, the downsloping winds may limit some of this
activity to virga. Either way, locally enhanced winds are possible
under showers or virga on Tuesday.

With the wind today and Tuesday, elevated fire weather conditions
exist. Take care to not cause a spark!

Wednesday into Thursday look to be dry days as temperatures warm
back into the 80s after a cooler day in the 70s on Tuesday. During
this time, the combination of breezy winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures will lead to localized elevated
fire weather conditions, especially on Thursday.

Friday into the weekend, the forecast becomes more uncertain.
However, a weather system looks to impact the area in some fashion
during this time, bringing cooler temperatures and the chance of
precipitation back to the area. With this, temperatures may be
cool enough for some early season snow in the mountains. Stay up
to date with the forecast though the week, especially if you have
plans in the mountains next weekend. LA

.AVIATION...

18z Discussion...

Scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon before
00z across much of Montana. These storms will be capable of 45 kt
winds and localized hail. Behind the storms, sustained winds out
of the west will remain breezy with gusts in the 25-35 kts range.
Farther west towards KLVM/K6S0/K3HT gusts will top 40kts between
now and 03z. LLWS is forecast from 02z through 15z in the plains
and was included in the KMLS TAF. All sites will remain VFR
outside of any thunderstorm. Locally erratic winds are expected
through 02z today due to the combination of strong sustained winds
and strong thunderstorm winds. WMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/075 049/082 054/088 055/073 048/067 044/060 043/065
    01/U    20/U    00/U    02/W    12/W    43/W    42/W
LVM 042/071 039/080 046/085 048/073 040/066 037/060 035/066
    02/W    20/N    00/N    02/T    23/T    55/T    42/W
HDN 047/078 044/083 045/090 048/075 043/071 041/064 040/067
    00/U    20/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    43/W    43/W
MLS 054/076 049/080 050/088 052/073 046/069 043/063 043/064
    10/N    20/U    00/U    01/U    21/B    43/W    43/W
4BQ 053/078 049/081 052/090 054/078 048/072 046/066 045/065
    20/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    32/W    42/W
BHK 049/077 044/079 047/089 049/077 041/071 038/065 039/064
    20/N    10/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    43/W    54/W
SHR 044/075 043/078 045/088 050/077 043/071 041/064 039/065
    00/U    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W    42/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings