568
FXUS65 KBYZ 070637
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1237 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms through this morning will be capable of producing
  localized heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail. The risk of strong
  to severe thunderstorms will decrease through this morning.

- Windy conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday (wind gusts of
  25 to 50 mph, strongest in south-central MT Monday and eastern
  MT Tuesday). This will cause elevated fire weather conditions.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions possible Thursday. This could
  bring elevated fire weather conditions.

- After a mostly dry mid-week, a weather system looks to bring
  cooler temperatures and the chance of precipitation back to the
  area Friday into the weekend. However, uncertainty remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

A shortwave trough is moving through the region tonight, ahead of
an approaching upper low. After good parameters for thunderstorms
largely went to waste Sunday afternoon and evening, the shortwave
will bring enough ascent for activity to begin overnight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and
move to the northeast into Monday morning. The greatest chance for
precipitation exists across south-central Montana (where there is
up to a 70 percent chance of precipitation) through this morning.
The chance for precipitation has increased a bit with recent model
runs over south-eastern Montana and northern Wyoming. The latest
chance is generally 20 to 40%.

A few storms may become strong to severe overnight, as favorable
parameters will still exist over the region. The primary threats
will be strong wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall. Currently,
the SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) of severe
thunderstorms. Through the morning hours the chance for
precipitation will decrease along with the risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms.

The chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to
increase later this morning and last into the early afternoon, as
the main low begins to move through Montana. With the low moving
to the northeast through the afternoon, drier air looks to move
into the forecast area mitigating the chance for precipitation.
However, westerly winds will increase across the region, with
gusts in the range of 20 to 40 mph, with locally higher gusts in
the mountains and foothills west of Billings. There is a moderate
chance (40 to 60 percent) for gusts up to 50 mph in the Livingston
to Big Timber to Harlowton areas.

Windy conditions will continue into Tuesday, though the strongest
winds will be more likely in the far east and along the Dakotas
Border. The latest probability for gusts of 50 mph is around 25%
for Baker. The drying conditions along with the winds will bring
areas of elevated fire weather conditions today and Tuesday.

The overall pattern becomes warmer and drier through mid-week.
Thursday could see increased fire weather concerns, with an
approaching cold front, highs above normal, and minimum relative
humidity values in the teens percent. This will be worth
monitoring as the week progresses.

Looking towards the weekend, models are depicting modest
agreement in another system bringing cooler and wetter conditions.
Uncertainty remains though so continue to monitor the forecast.
PM/LA

.AVIATION...

06z TAF and Aviation Discussion...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds
and hail are expected to lift south to north through the region
early this morning. Strongest storms could produce brief MVFR-IFR
in heavy rain and gusts of 30-50 knots. Greatest potential for
storms is through ~13z. There may also be areas of stratus (mostly
MVFR), mainly west of KMLS. Mountains will be occasionally
obscured.

An early cold front will bring a shift to breezy west winds today.
Highest gusts (30-45 knots) will be along the western foothills
impacting KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ, but gusts of 25-35 knots will spread
east of the foothills this afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected but VFR will prevail as drier downslope
west winds become dominant. Look for widespread VFR and dry
conditions tonight, with breezy west winds continuing.

JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 052/075 049/082 054/088 055/074 047/065 043/060
    2/T 00/N    10/U    00/U    12/W    23/W    43/W
LVM 070 041/070 040/079 046/084 048/074 040/065 036/060
    4/T 00/N    00/N    00/N    12/W    24/T    53/W
HDN 084 046/078 044/084 046/091 049/076 043/069 040/063
    2/T 00/N    10/U    00/U    01/U    22/W    43/W
MLS 084 053/076 049/080 051/087 053/074 046/067 042/063
    2/T 00/N    10/U    00/U    01/U    32/W    43/W
4BQ 087 052/079 050/081 052/089 055/078 048/071 045/064
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/B    43/W
BHK 088 050/078 044/079 047/088 050/077 042/069 038/063
    2/T 00/N    10/U    00/U    01/U    31/B    53/W
SHR 084 044/076 043/078 045/087 049/077 043/069 039/062
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings