756
FXUS65 KBYZ 160828
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
228 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk (2/5) of severe thunderstorms today. Main threats
  are strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain. A small chance for
  tornadoes over western and central portions of the region.

- There is potential for thunderstorms into Tuesday; some severe
  thunderstorms are possible. Monitor the forecast.

- Quieter weather pattern for the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through tonight...

Localized fog is possible (20-40% chance) for much of the region
until just after sunrise this morning.

Thunderstorms are expected again today and the Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for much of the
region. While still severe, storms are expected to be generally
less intense than the previous day.

The most likely timeframe for severe storms is from 2 PM
to 10 PM. Moisture and instability remain sufficient, with
dewpoints expected in the 50s and CAPE values around 1000-1600
J/kg this afternoon. In addition, shear will be around 40-50 kts.
Potential impacts with any severe storms include large hail,
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and, over western and central
portions of the region, a low chance (2%) for tornado
development. Archer


Tuesday through Sunday...

Models are in good agreement that we will be transitioning to a
drier and warmer pattern in the extended. A weak short wave
embedded in weak zonal flow will track over the region Tuesday
with scattered showers possible through the day, and some
thunderstorm activity also possible. PWAT progs still show
readings above 0.80 inches Tuesday, so some locally heavy rain is
possible. MUCAPE values Tuesday afternoon range from 500-1250
J/kg, so some small hail and gusty winds remain a possibility as
temps reach the 70s.

Ridging then builds over the inter-mountain west Wednesday and
Thursday with weak downslope flow pushing the bulk of low level
moisture east. So we should see limited if much of any convection
at midweek. Temps will push above normal reaching mid to upper
80s with some 90 degree readings possible by Thursday and Friday.
The ridge axis shifts east over the high plains late in the week
with an upper trough moving into the Pacific NW. This may lead to
another period of daily scattered thunderstorm activity by the
weekend with temps dropping back to around normal by Sunday. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds and localized fog are possible (20%) through 14Z.
Isolated showers this morning will increase to scattered showers
and thunderstorms by 20Z. MVFR conditions will be possible under
heavy rain. Some storms may be severe and produce large hail and
winds gusts up to 55 kts. Expect occasional mountain obscuration.
Archer


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 054/077 055/085 056/087 059/087 057/083 051/065
    6/T 56/T    00/U    00/U    22/T    22/T    54/T
LVM 077 049/075 048/082 051/086 052/084 050/078 042/060
    8/T 55/T    00/U    01/U    33/T    23/T    66/T
HDN 080 054/076 052/085 056/088 058/090 057/086 051/066
    5/T 67/T    10/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    54/T
MLS 080 057/077 055/085 056/088 060/087 060/087 053/066
    4/T 46/T    20/U    10/U    42/T    31/U    53/T
4BQ 078 055/073 053/082 057/088 060/088 059/091 054/069
    3/T 68/T    20/U    10/U    11/U    21/U    32/T
BHK 077 054/074 051/082 053/086 058/083 057/086 054/069
    2/T 35/T    31/U    10/U    32/W    21/U    42/W
SHR 078 050/071 048/081 052/087 056/088 055/088 049/067
    7/T 89/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    34/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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