724
FXUS65 KBYZ 081413
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
813 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry and occasionally breezy through the weekend. Critical
  fire weather conditions today.

- Wildfire smoke keeps skies hazy for the next several days, and
  will occasionally reduce air quality. For the latest air
  quality, visit airnow.gov.

- Trending more humid next week; increasing thunderstorm potential
  in southeast Montana Monday through Wednesday.

- Cooler with a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms across
  the region to end the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
There is a notable increase in surface smoke this morning with a
very red sunrise and degraded air qualities across the region.
Livingston, Billings and Sheridan airports are each reporting a
vsby of 5SM as of 8am. The onset of mixed northerly winds should
improve things slightly, especially over the east, but winds aloft
will continue advect a thick smoke cover from the west. The smoke
may hinder mixing just a bit today, but still looking for breezy
NW-N winds and RHs of 7-14% this afternoon, along with temps in
the 90s to near 100F. The Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11am
to 9pm. Please be careful to not spark a fire.

Forecast is in good shape. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Next 7 Days...

A hot, dry, and breezy weekend is in store for the entire region.
Saturday will be the hottest day of the stretch where the entire
CWA will see highs in the upper 90s with localized triple digits.
Temps will then return back to the low to mid 90s Sunday followed
by a gradual cooldown through the work week. In addition to these
well above average temperatures this weekend, there will be very
little moisture. Min RH values were in the teens across the CWA
today and are only expected to get worse tomorrow. Winds have
begun to shift out of the WNW ahead of a cold front which will
help keep the RH recoveries tonight poor followed by values
bottoming out in the single digits for much of the CWA Saturday.

The last piece of this fire weather puzzle is that of the winds.
As we rapidly increase the mixing height with hot temperatures
Saturday we will see 30 to 40 kt winds at the 700-500mb layer in
play to get mixed down to the surface. Even though the widespread
wildfire smoke region-wide may keep temps down a pinch, these
winds are the strongest we have seen aloft in a while which is
cause for concern. There are several "what if" questions for the
fire weather ingredients but overall it looks to be a very clear
critical weather conditions day. For Sunday all of the same
ingredients are present, however all of them get slightly less
favorable which will mean that the whole region will be in the
"elevated" level of fire weather concerns.

Wildfire smoke will remain an issue through the weekend and into
early next week. With the ridge continuing to dominate, the mid
level flow will remain westerly and thus advecting the smoke from
the several PNW fires into our region. Additionally there are
some very smoky fires in SW MT increasing concentrations for
locations near Livingston where an AQA remains in effect at the
time of writing this. While Livingston will remain socked in smoke
for the next few days, the rest of the CWA will see surface smoke
come in and out due to shifting low level winds and subsidence even
though the smoke aloft will remain steady.

Looking ahead to the work week there are still several questions
regarding the forecast. What I can say with some confidence
through is that a pattern change is in store for our area. As the
Intermountain Ridge continues to battle with the Hudson Bay Low
it appears that the ridge may back off just enough to allow waves
of energy to pivot through the high plains. The first of these
could make an appearance on Monday, but models are still in
disagreement on just how far west the moisture and energy will
make it. As of now, the farthest west solution still keeps all of
the precip east of Miles City. The other good news with this
pattern change is that this would allow for the return of great
plains moisture in the CWA, especially for SE Montana. This wind
shift advecting in the low level moisture could also help in
decreasing some of the widespread smoke. After another shot at
something weak midweek there is a continued signal for something
of note to impact the entire area late week.

Although the long range models still show some noteworthy
differences between each other and from run to run, I am finally
seeing at least some agreement. It appears that a pretty decent
shortwave for this time of year could drop out of AB and into the
plains bringing with it a chance for thunderstorms and a good
temperature cooldown behind a cold front. Ensembles are showing
high temperatures Friday 5-10 degrees below average which will be
quite welcome just a week after hitting triple digits yet again.
This feature will be the next thing to keep our eyes on as it
could be the first impactful precip event in several weeks. WMR

.AVIATION...

Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce slant range visibility
across the region today. Over south-central and western Montana
into northern Wyoming, surface visibility will be reduced at times
as well. With this, more persistent MVFR conditions are forecast
at KLVM and KSHR, with periodic MVFR conditions at KBIL.
Otherwise, winds will shift out of the northwest today with gusts
around 15 to 30 knots late this morning into early this evening.
LA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 098 063/094 062/091 064/091 063/082 058/074 054/073
    0/K 00/K    00/U    00/U    11/B    45/W    63/W
LVM 095 055/092 054/092 055/091 053/083 049/075 046/074
    0/K 00/K    00/U    00/U    01/U    24/T    53/T
HDN 099 059/094 057/095 059/092 059/084 055/076 051/075
    0/K 00/K    00/U    00/U    12/W    46/W    64/W
MLS 097 060/094 060/092 061/090 060/082 055/077 053/075
    0/K 00/K    01/U    01/U    24/T    55/T    54/W
4BQ 098 062/095 061/093 063/090 062/083 057/076 055/074
    0/K 00/K    00/U    11/U    25/T    56/T    74/T
BHK 096 056/092 055/090 056/088 054/080 050/074 048/072
    0/K 01/K    12/T    22/T    45/T    45/T    65/W
SHR 099 057/095 058/094 058/090 057/083 053/075 050/073
    0/K 00/K    00/U    01/U    13/T    47/T    65/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONES 117-123>133.
WY...Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONES 274-284.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings