713
FXUS65 KBYZ 202015
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
115 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Breezy winds along the western foothills this weekend; a period
  of stronger winds possible Sunday night and Monday.

- A significant pattern change is coming next week, with below
  normal temperatures and the potential for periods of light snow
  Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Be prepared for wintry impacts to holiday travel next week and
  through next weekend. Monitor the forecast!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
There remains an area of stratus over the southeast but this is
eroding as we continue thru the peak heating hours. By late
evening, and perhaps before 06z, expect fog to develop again in
the southeast in an area east of a line from Sheridan to Miles
City. Light SE-S winds will linger so the boundary layer will
remain moist. Elsewhere, the onset of downslope winds will promote
drying so will keep fog only in the east tonight into Friday
morning. Otherwise, tonight will be dry as we continue to build
heights over the northern Rockies and upper high plains.

Dry zonal flow, with a cut off low over the far southwest CONUS,
will keep our region warm/dry through the weekend. Look for high
temps in the 50s to near 60F, a good 10-15F above normal. Above
normal temps should linger into Monday but we will begin to see
changes by then. Breezy winds are expected along the western
foothills each of the next few days with gusts generally 30-40
mph. A period of stronger winds is possible in the pre-frontal
time Sunday night into Monday, but latest guidance has trended
down in the gap areas. Post-frontal westerly winds will be gusty
on Monday, highest in the west along the US-191 corridor. Through
the period, there is a 50% chance of 50+ mph gusts at Livingston,
and a 30-40% chance of 50+ mph gusts at Big Timber & Harlowton.-

Those looking for wintry weather should be excited about next
week. Things start with the break down of the ridge and cold
frontal passage Monday into Monday night (the timing of the fropa
has sped up a bit w/ today`s models). The frontal push itself
still looks mostly dry, but some backside snow is possible w/ a
brief trowal late Monday thru Monday night or Tuesday. Highest
chances of this would be in our east, with the upper low somewhere
in the Dakotas, and would be accompanied by gusty NW winds. In
fact, the ensembles are starting to signal 40+ mph wind gusts over
our east during this time. Could we be looking at a period of
snow & blowing snow w/ temps in the 20s? Maybe. A lot will depend
on how wrapped up the low becomes to our east.

In any event, Tuesday will begin a stretch of colder than normal
days that should last through the week. We will see higher heights
Wednesday/Thursday but with flow being WNW and confluent just to
our north this may allow for colder air to remain locked in place
east of the mountains. There remains uncertainty this far in
advance, but that is where ensembles are trending. Furthermore,
as the previous discussion noted, there could be periods of
overrunning light snow with additional weak Pacific shortwaves
cresting the broad ridge axis to our west. Looking further ahead,
there is fairly strong consensus for a more dynamic trof, colder
air and a greater chance of accumulating snowfall by next weekend.
Probabilistically at this moment, there is a 70% chance of
measurable snow across lower elevations (including Billings) in
the 72-hr period ending Thursday afternoon.

Any wintry weather next week will have obvious impacts to
Thanksgiving travel. It is possible that the biggest impacts may
be associated with a winter storm and cold temps next weekend.
There remains a lot of uncertainty so please monitor the forecast
over the next several days!

JKL

.AVIATION...

Fog and low clouds are possible (20% chance) over the east again
tonight into Friday morning, including near KSHR, KMLS, and KBHK.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with mostly light surface
winds. Archer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/056 034/056 035/058 035/050 026/038 020/035 022/034
    00/U    00/B    00/U    03/W    21/B    11/B    33/S
LVM 028/054 031/055 030/057 032/045 021/036 019/037 022/038
    00/U    00/B    00/U    14/W    22/J    12/S    44/S
HDN 027/056 029/056 027/057 029/051 025/038 017/037 019/034
    00/U    00/B    00/U    03/W    42/J    11/B    33/S
MLS 028/052 030/053 028/056 030/050 024/034 017/030 015/030
    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/J    10/B    12/S
4BQ 029/054 031/054 030/057 031/050 024/034 018/033 017/032
    00/B    00/B    00/U    01/B    32/J    10/B    11/E
BHK 026/050 028/050 027/057 029/049 020/031 012/027 011/027
    00/B    00/B    00/U    01/B    32/J    10/B    11/B
SHR 026/056 027/056 027/059 028/050 019/034 014/033 016/034
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W    42/J    11/B    23/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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