105
FXCA20 KWBC 071940
PMDCA

Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Forecast Bulletin 7 October 2025 at 1930 UTC:

The Bahamas and the Caribbean:

Today into Wednesday some precipitation should be expected on the
Lesser Antilles with moisture advection. Over Puerto Rico
thunderstorms are likely to occur with the presence of an
upper-level trough and the instability associated with an induced
trough over the area. Over Cuba and Bahamas, some precipitation
should be expected as there is moisture and a low-level
circulation bringing flow onshore. For the rest of the Caribbean
seasonable precipitation due to local effect and diurnal heating
are likely.

From Wednesday to Thursday relatively calm conditions, and with
the upper level trough weakening over Hispaniola precipitation in
the Caribbean will most likely be due to local effects and diurnal
heating. A low-level circulation remains over Cuba, bringing some
instability and increasing chances of precipitation.

More convective activity and unstable conditions are expected
towards the end of the forecast period. From Thursday into Friday,
an upper-level trough moves over eastern US extending into
southeast US, moving its divergent side approaching the Bahamas
and western Cuba. Precipitable water increases over the region
with a stationary front, and a low-level trough from Bahamas into
Cuba increases instability in the region, convective activity and
period of heavy rainfall can be expected. Tropical Storm Jerry may
approach the region enhancing rainfall, particularly over the
Leeward Islands on Friday. With the enhancement of moisture
associated with the storm, local effects and diurnal heating some
precipitation should also be expected for the rest of the Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico by the end of the workweek into the
weekend.

Mexico and Central America:

Hurricane Priscilla continues to cause some precipitation
particularly over Baja California Sur today into Wednesday, and
will continue to bring moisture and produce heavy rainfall over
portions of west-central Mexico today into Thursday. The impact of
the tropical cyclone over Mexico, in terms of precipitation,
diminishes gradually over the forecast period

A developing low-level circulation, currently being monitored by
the National Hurricane Center (NHC) with a 80% chance of
development in the next seven days, will bring precipitation to
portions of Central America and the Pacific coast of Mexico from
today into Friday, as it continues to move along the Pacific
coast. The low-level circulation has mid- and upper-level support
with the presence of a trough, and heavy rainfall is expected each
day, with maximum accumulation around 25-50mm and higher values
locally each day.

An upper level trough with an associated low-level induced trough
in the Bay of Campeche is expected to continue to bring heavy
rainfall in the region. The divergence associated with the upper
level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and significant moist
low-level flow will aid in promoting precipitation today into
Wednesday and in portions of Tabasco, Campeche and Veracruz. There
is also a low-level trough over eastern Yucatan and Belize that is
being supported with divergence from the upper level trough in the
Bay of Campeche that will enhance precipitation in the eastern
portion of Yucatan today into Wednesday. From Wednesday to
Thursday very significant precipitation is expected over Veracruz,
east San Luis Potos and south Tamaulipas with the retrograding
upper level trough and the low-level trough over the Campeche Bay
will produce strong and moist onshore flow from the
east-northeast. This along with orographic enhancement will be
conducive to heavy precipitation.  As the low-level trough moves
inland, low-level moisture convergence is expected to continue
enhancing rainfall from Thursday to Friday.

Heavy precipitation is expected for Costa Rica from Wednesday into
Friday, with the presence of the monsoon trough and a low
enhancing circulation in the region that will favor moist onshore
increase. In addition, a developing upper-level trough will
enhance upper level divergence over Costa Rica particularly from
Thursday into Friday, increasing the instability and convective
activity into the region.

Tropical South America:

Over the tropical South America, precipitation will be mostly due
to moisture advection, diurnal heating and local effects for the
forecast period. Some convective activity and thunderstorms will
likely happen over the Amazon region from today into Wednesday as
there is some support from mid and upper level shortwave troughs.
A long fetch of moisture with weak low-level flow and orographic
enhancement is expected to bring precipitation to the west coast
of Colombia from Wednesday into Friday.



Positions of Tropical/Easterly Waves Initialized at 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12
TW  16N  54W   56W  58W   60W   Diss----------


For the latest available charts please visit:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml

Rivera-Torres...(WPC)
Blanco-Alcala...(WPC)
$$