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FXCA20 KWBC 241728
PMDCA

Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1228 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Forecast Bulletin 24 November 2025 at 1730 UTC:

Mexico, Central America, the Bahamas, and the Caribbean:

An ample upper-level trough will begin to move into central Mexico
on Wednesday and continue progressing eastward into the Gulf,
Belize, and Guatemala on Thursday. At the lower levels and the
surface, a cold front from the southwest United States will make
its way into the Gulf beginning on Wednesday afternoon, and
progress into the Bahamas and Cuba late in the work week and into
the weekend. At this point, low-level moisture flow will begin
moving onshore onto the east coast of Mexico, specifically
Veracruz and Tamaulipas, as the cold front enters the Gulf.
Onshore flow along with orographic effects due to the mountainous
regions in Mexico will result in heavy precipitation on Wednesday,
which is expected to continue late into the week. Expect
precipitation maxima of around 20-45mm.

Modest amounts of moisture will also flow from the east onto the
coast of Belize, northwest Honduras, and Guatemala on Wednesday,
bringing light to locally moderate precipitation. The interaction
between the cold front and the incoming moisture from the east
will be conducive to elevated levels of moisture convergence. With
local effects and orographic enhancement also taking effect,
precipitation of up to 15-30mm is expected on Wednesday,
particularly in the Gulf of Honduras region.

In Costa Rica, moisture from the Atlantic in association with the
presence of the monsoon trough will move into the region from the
east beginning on Tuesday, and will persistently transport
moisture late into the work week. With most moisture available
beginning on Wednesday, along with a moderate Caribbean Low-Level
Jet extending to the surface and strong orographic enhancement
given the higher terrain in Costa Rica, heavy precipitation will
occur on Wednesday through late in the week. Precipitation maxima
of around 25-50mm are expected for this area on Wednesday.

In the Caribbean, a potent area of high pressure will dominate the
area over the coming days and will result in calm and dry
conditions. The exception will be a subtle plume of moisture which
will bring light precipitation to the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba today through Tuesday night. Any other precipitation early
this week will be light and localized, most likely fueled by
moisture from the various mid-latitude frontal systems. Further
out past the forecast period, the potential for heavy
precipitation in the Bahamas and Cuba due to the arrival of the
previously mentioned cold front may become of interest towards the
end of the week and into the weekend.

Tropical South America:

An upper-level trough will present itself in the northwest region
of South America and parts of Central America through Wednesday,
before becoming more zonal late into the week. However, given an
upper-level jet with strong shear, deep and organized convection
will be limited and potentially inhibited early in the week. In
the lower levels, moisture moving from the east in association
with the ITCZ in the Atlantic will provide fuel for localized and
daily precipitation in the northern portions of South America, as
it experiences orographic ascent. In the west, the presence of the
Panamanian Low will result in a deviation of much of the
seasonable westerly low-level flow in western Colombia today
through Thursday morning. With weak/limited low-level and onshore
flow, most precipitation in western Colombia will be localized and
due to orographic enhancement and diurnal effects. Further south
in Ecuador and northern Peru, easterly flow from the Amazon will
continue to allow for moisture to converge and be orographic
lifted by the Andes Mountains. This will allow for seasonable,
localized, and daily precipitation over the forecast period.


Positions of Tropical/Easterly Waves Initialized at 12 UTC
TYP SOF  INIT  25/00  25/12  26/00  26/12  27/00  27/12  28/00
--  --    --    ---   ---


For the latest available charts please visit:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml

Blanco-Alcala...(WPC)
$$